Nitish Kumar’s Dashavtar begins after his oath as Bihar CM for 10th time
In a strong show of unity, all the key faces of the National Democratic Alliance, including Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Amit Shah and others, were present at the historic Gandhi Maidan, the vast venue where he took office in 2005 and later in 2010 and 2015, before opting for the sober quarters of the Raj Bhawan as his stock fell as he bounced between alliances.
While the NDA recorded a historic landslide victory in the 2025 Bihar assembly polls by winning 202 out of 243 seats, the Mahagathbandhan managed to get only 35 seats. The ruling alliance secured a three-fourth majority in the 243-member Bihar Assembly, marking the second time the NDA crossed the 200-seat mark in the state polls. In 2010, it won 206 seats.
In the NDA, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) won 89 seats, Janata Dal (United) 85, Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas) (LJPRV) 19, Hindustani Awam Morcha (Secular) (HAMS) five and Rashtriya Lok Morcha four.
Among opposition parties, Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) won 25 seats, Indian National Congress six, Communist Party of India (Marxist-Leninist) (Liberation) [CPI(ML)(L)] two, the Indian Inclusive Party (IIP) and the Communist Party of India (Marxist). [CPI(M)] a seat.
All India Majlis-E-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) won five seats, while Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) won one seat. Bihar assembly elections were held in two phases on November 6 and 11. Bihar recorded a historic voter turnout of 67.13 per cent, with women voters outnumbering men (71.6 per cent versus 62.8 per cent); The highest rate since 1951.
Nitish Kumar’s cabinet caste math
Nitish (74) was elected leader of the NDA legislative assembly party in a meeting attended by MLAs and senior leaders of the five constituents of the LJP(RV, HAM(S) and RLM), along with the two main parties, and was later joined by his allies laying claim to governor Arif Mohammad Khan.
While the BJP MPs re-elected Samrat Choudhary from OBC Kushwaha as their leader, Vijay Kumar Sinha from upper caste Bhumihar was also elected as his deputy; This was a clear indication that they would retain the position of deputy CM in the new government.
The BJP stuck to the upper-backward combination of castes for the first two jobs in its quota, a social coalition that was the hallmark of its candidate selection in the election.
The BJP and JDU held lengthy negotiations to finalize the details of the new government and both parties agreed on the status quo on key positions after differing exchanges of views. Sources said that if there is a suggestion from some of the JDU to take up the speaker’s post currently held by its ally, the BJP has shown its willingness to take over the home ministry headed by Nitish and the current arrangement is likely to continue.
Sources told TOI that among the outgoing ministers, Nitin Nabin, Mangal Pandey, Nitish Mishra and Sanjay Saraogi may be retained from the BJP quota. It has been claimed that JDU’s Vijay Kumar Chaudhary, Lacy Singh and Shravan Kumar will also be sworn in as ministers again, along with representatives of three other allies.
After being elected party leader in the BJP legislature, Choudhary said that the new government will work hard to realize Modi and Nitish’s development vision for Bihar.
Why were the 2025 polls a litmus test?
Nitish Kumar faces perhaps his toughest political test after being in power for almost two decades. Nitish, once referred to as ‘Sushashan babu’ (the man said to have transformed Bihar after the Lalu-Rabri era and referred to by many as ‘jungle raj’), has faced increasing fatigue and skepticism during these assembly elections.
Nitish ruled Bihar for close to 20 years and skillfully switched alliances to retain power. But two decades of rule appeared to bring inevitable voter fatigue. Nitish, once seen as the face of development and order, faced an electorate that supposedly wanted renewal and energy.
It was believed that the BJP’s national dominance and Prime Minister Modi’s enduring popularity would be the NDA’s strongest assets during the Bihar elections, potentially compensating for Nitish’s declining appeal. For years, Nitish Kumar played the role of “big brother” in his alliance with the BJP and often dictated the terms. But this time the power dynamic has changed. Modi-led BJP negotiated with JD(U) for an equal share of seats, 101 seats each. Despite symbolic equality, the JD(U) appeared to have lost the clout it once had. In Bihar’s political arithmetic, Nitish was seen as a junior partner in spirit, if not on paper.
Nitish’s occasional inconsistent moments have led to discussions about his health and alertness. Opposition parties seized on these to question his suitability for leadership. While this was expected to sway some voters, many saw the strength of the BJP under Modi as a stabilizing force.
Nitish’s political capital had clearly dwindled. His approval ratings as preferred prime minister have fallen from 37% in 2020 to between 16% and 25% in recent polls (C-Voter, VoteVibe). JD(U)’s parliamentary strength has also fallen sharply; It fell from 115 seats in 2010 to just 43 in 2020; There was a significant decrease in vote share from 22.6% to 15.7%. The once dominant leader found himself dependent on Modi’s popularity to survive in Bihar’s changing political landscape.
It was believed that Modi’s brand, not Nitish’s, would win votes in many constituencies. While the Modi factor seems to have worked, the Nitish factor has defied all expectations and doubts.
Why does Nitish Kumar’s personal brand still carry weight?
One of the most striking facts to emerge from this election is that Nitish’s personal credibility, which was thought to be eroding, has instead proved extremely resilient. While BJP strategists had predicted some recovery for the JD(U), they did not expect Nitish’s popularity to translate into such a broad performance.
Nitish has long been seen as a “governance first” leader and this image seems to remain relevant even after almost two decades in power. Despite questions about his age, health and political fatigue, a section of voters still associate him with: Social harmony and caste balance seem to be Nitish’s strong points. It has the ability to carry different castes and religions together. That’s a rare power in a state where voters are deeply divided.
Numerically, Nitish caste Kurmis constitute about 3% of the state’s population; this is much smaller than the Yadavs at over 14% and the Muslims at around 18%. But he is popular among castes outside the politicized blocs perceived to be affiliated with one party or another; such as 10% Hindu upper castes, 4% Kushwahas, 5% Paswans, 3% Musahars and 2.6% Mallahs. Nitish is gaining traction even among Muslim voters who are generally seen as opposing his ally, the BJP.
Another factor that seems to have worked in Nitish’s favor is the women’s vote. She has come to gain significant credibility among female voters. Women voters in Bihar have repeatedly acted as a stabilizing force for Nitish’s leadership, often shielding him from shocks affecting other sections. The introduction of Mukhyamantri Mahila Rozgar Yojana (MMRY) appears to have strengthened Nitish’s long-standing welfare architecture targeting women and builds on various earlier schemes for women. With the promise of employment and income support, the MMRY has arguably added a new layer of support on the very fringes where the elections were won.
In contrast to the loud and visible campaign machinery of the BJP, the organizational strength of the JD(U) is quieter but has deep network connectivity, especially among rural blocs. The traditional cadre structure of rural leaders and local influencers may have operated more effectively than assumed in pre-election assessments. Unlike the 2020 elections, when the JD(U) cadre reportedly showed signs of fatigue and confusion, this time the party appears to have operated with greater consistency and is in better coordination with the BJP at the constituency level.
For many voters, Nitish’s management model is more important than his political friendship. His long-time visibility as the most experienced executive in the state continues to overshadow his perceived opportunism. Voters may have chosen to reward continuity rather than punish him.
Factors such as anti-incumbency, questions about leadership fatigue and shifting political allegiances were all present, but none of these could overcome the underlying perceptions of stability, welfare delivery, caste inclusivity and administrative continuity that suited Brand Nitish. At the same time, Brand Modi must have also worked to some extent to polish Brand Nitish.
