Nobel Peace Prize Officials Investigating Suspicious Activity Ahead of Announcement

Nobel Committee Chairman Jørgen Watne Frydnes, Friday, October 10, 2025. (Rodrigo Freitas/NTB Scanpix, via AP)

Nobel Peace Prize officials are investigating a burst of betting activity hours before this year’s winner is announced, amid concerns that confidential information may have leaked from within the Nobel committee.

Data from crypto prediction platform Polymarket showed a sudden increase in bets in favor of Maria Corina MachadoVenezuelan opposition leader who won the 2025 Peace Prize. His chances were estimated at just under 4 percent around midnight in Norway on Thursday, but by around 2 a.m. that had jumped to almost 73 percent. His win was announced a few hours later.

Before Thursday, Yulia NavalnayaWidow of Russian opposition leader Alexei NavalnyHe became the leading Peace Prize winner at Polymarket. Other contestant, President Donald Trump’s rates were also higher than Machado’s.

Kristian Berg HarpvikenPresident of the Nobel Institute, said “We appear to have fallen victim to a criminal actor seeking to make money from our information,” Bloomberg said. According to Norwegian newspaper Finansavisen, a bettor won $65,000 after betting on Machado. Another winner created his Polymarket profile the same day he placed his bet.

Jørgen Watne FrydnesThe chairman of the Nobel committee noted the organization’s reputation for maintaining secrecy, telling another Norwegian newspaper, Aftenposten, that the organization “tends to be very good at keeping secrets.” More details on the investigation into the apparent leak are expected to come soon, according to Harpviken.

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