Here are the 4 big things we’re watching in the stock market in the week ahead
Days before earnings season begins, President Donald Trump escalated trade tensions with China, rattling the stock market on Friday and roiling the backdrop for next week. The federal government shutdown also continues. Here’s an in-depth look at the three biggest things we’ll be watching over the next five trading days. 1. Financial earnings: We’re in for a busy Tuesday, with three of our four financial institutions (BlackRock, Wells Fargo, and Goldman Sachs) set to report third-quarter earnings before the opening bell. As is customary, information from banks officially kicks off each earnings season. Our remaining financial unit, Capital One, will report next week on October 21. All estimates for earnings per share and revenue come from LSEG, while FactSet provides consensus for other metrics. BlackRock is expected to report quarterly earnings per share (EPS) of $11.26 and revenue of $6.2 billion. Aside from the headline numbers, we’ll also be paying close attention to organic base pay growth, which is a key component of the asset management business. It recorded a growth of 6% in the first half of 2025. Analysts at Goldman Sachs said in a recent optimistic note on BlackRock that they were modeling 7% growth for the third quarter. They also expect BlackRock to “set a constructive tone on margin expansion going forward,” which is another part of the company’s bull thesis because it helps boost earnings. Adjusted operating margin was 43.3% and 43.2% in the last two quarters. The third important metric to watch is net asset flows, which disappointed Wall Street expectations in the first and second quarters. In the July-September period, the Street expects net flows of $165.7 billion. On the bigger picture, we’ll hear from CEO Larry Fink for updates on BlackRock’s aggressive push into private assets, particularly around data centers, to capitalize on the AI investment boom. Its infrastructure arm has been linked to several large potential acquisitions recently. While the stock was just below its all-time high on Friday, we set aside some profits to redeploy into new names like Nike and Boeing. Wells Fargo is expected to earn $1.55 per share on revenue of $21.15 billion. This will be Wells Fargo’s second earnings report since the Fed lifted its $1.95 trillion asset limit in June, but in the entire first quarter when the penalty tied to the fake accounts scandal was eliminated. A particular area of focus for the club is messaging regarding the bank’s buyback activities and future capital return plans. “It’s very, very important,” Jim Cramer said during Friday’s Morning Meeting. Wells repurchased about $3 billion in the second quarter, up from $3.5 billion in the first quarter. We also want updates on CEO Charlie Scharf’s strategic investment priorities, such as his investment banking business, which posted 16% pay growth in the first half of the year and continues to gain share among U.S. rivals. Given several months of busy deals, we expect Wells to have a strong quarter in this department. Finally, Wells Fargo still relies heavily on interest income, although it has moved into fee-based businesses that are less at the mercy of the bond market yield curve. This means investors will be watching the bank’s net interest margin (NIM) (the difference between the interest it collects on loans and investments and the interest it pays to depositors) and its net interest income (NII) guidance, which it lowered to $48.02 billion in July. When Morgan Stanley downgraded Wells Fargo shares in late September, the firm expressed concerns that NIM could shrink following the Fed’s interest rate cut. Goldman Sachs is expected to report earnings per share of $11 on revenue of $14.1 billion. If investment banking is one of the characters in Wells Fargo’s long-term investment story, Goldman Sachs is the star here and now. The exact same deal-making dynamics that will likely benefit Wells Fargo will also apply to Goldman. Of course, Goldman’s strong stock performance suggests that the market has priced in all the positive headlines regarding mergers and acquisitions (M&A) and initial public offerings (IPOs) in recent months. Therefore, reporting strong growth in investment banking fees (consensus for a 15.4% increase year-on-year as of Friday) remains minimal. We want to hear from CEO David Solomon about client engagement levels and the status of Goldman’s advisory backlog, which it described as “significantly increased from year-end 2024 levels” in the latest quarter. While there has been some concern that the ongoing government shutdown could put a temporary damper on the IPO revival due to limited action by the Securities and Exchange Commission, the U.S. securities regulator’s updated guidance has outlined a path for this to continue. Elsewhere at the firm, Goldman’s trading desks across equities, fixed income and currencies are firing on all cylinders in 2025, and we’re looking for more of the same there. 2. Another one: As we enter the world of healthcare, we’re set to hear from Abbott Laboratories on Thursday morning. Abbott Labs is expected to earn $1.30 per share on revenue of $11.4 billion. The company has a chance to make up for its lackluster July earnings report, which included a cut to its 2025 organic sales growth outlook, with better press this time around. The health of Abbott’s business in China will be critical. In particular, we want to hear that the Chinese government’s strategy to control healthcare costs (also known as volume-based purchasing (VBP) policy) does not pose a greater dent in diagnostics segment revenue than previously expected. The recovery in volumes that Abbott expected to see in China in the second quarter did not materialize, leading the management to move this recovery to the fourth quarter. Another important segment for Abbott was medical devices, which beat Wall Street’s expectations for 10 consecutive quarters, according to FactSet data. It’s home to a rapidly growing continuous glucose monitoring business used for diabetes care and targeting the health-conscious general consumer with a newer approach, and we want to see the momentum continue here. 3. Washington updates: With Friday’s selloff amid rising tensions in China and the Trump administration saying it has begun laying off some furloughed public employees, the market will be monitoring developments on these two fronts next week. Trump’s trade agenda has become a less pressing issue for markets than during the unsettled spring and early summer, but it returned in a jarring fashion on Friday with Trump threatening tariffs and countermeasures. After the market closed on Friday, Trump said the United States would impose additional 100% tariffs on Chinese imports starting Nov. 1 in response to Beijing’s new controls on exports of rare earth minerals. China defended its export restrictions on Sunday. When it comes to cutting federal funding, the market is operating under the assumption that a temporary shutdown will not significantly alter the trajectory of U.S. economic growth, leaving investors to focus primarily on the latest advances in artificial intelligence. But the longer this situation persists, the more significant it could become for markets and the economy, damaging business and consumer confidence. Another unknown added to the situation is that public employees are laid off rather than furloughed and eventually expected to receive back pay, which is the typical operating procedure during a shutdown. “We’re more than a week away from the shutdown and little has changed. Although there are some potential compromises, neither side is budging,” strategists at Piper Sandler wrote in a note to clients Friday. But the positive for these measures of economic confidence is that “this shutdown appears boring rather than alarming the public,” the firm wrote. “Our base case scenario was that the shutdown would last around two weeks, but it now looks like it will last longer,” they added. One piece of positive news about the shutdown is that the Bureau of Labor Statistics called on employees to work on the September consumer price index report, one of the key inflation reports followed by investors and policymakers alike. The CPI report, originally scheduled to be published next Wednesday, is now expected to be published on October 24. The flow of other government economic data was disrupted. It is noteworthy that the September non-farm employment report, which is expected to be announced on October 3, has not been published yet. The market is making do without the usual rhythm of economic reports, turning instead to alternative sources for insights into the health of the economy (private equity giant Carlyle compiled its estimated September employment report, for example). However, it is good to hear that the CPI report will be released after all. 4. Keep dreaming: Salesforce, one of the most disappointing stocks in the portfolio this year, has a chance to regain Jim’s confidence with the annual Dreamforce conference in San Francisco. Jim has one mission: to find out how much value his enterprise software company’s customers are getting from a suite of AI tools called Agentforce. During Friday’s morning meeting, Jim said he told Salesforce CEO Marc Benioff: “If you want me to stand in front of people and say, ‘Listen, you need to buy Salesforce,’ so I actually need to see the customers whose fortunes are changing, and I need to know how many customers are dying.” [cut their reliance on] Salesforce” is emerging as a result of AI adoption. This gets to the heart of the debate about Salesforce and its peers in the enterprise software group: As customers reduce headcount and potentially use AI to write replacement programs, is AI an existential threat that will erode the armchair-based licensing model they’ve come to rely on, or is the software provider’s own AI-powered tools, Will it be popular enough with customers to drive meaningful revenue growth, offsetting any downside? Is there a decline in your old business? The “AI is eating software” debate continues to rage. Maybe Dreamforce can help solve the problem. Next Week The government shutdown has delayed the release of some key economic reports, which are usually included in the schedule below. Monday, October 13 Before earnings bell: Fastenal Tuesday, October 14 NFIB Small Business Index morning At 6 a.m. ET Dreamforce begins in San Francisco Before the bell: BlackRock, Wells Fargo, Goldman Sachs, Domino’s Pizza, Johnson & Johnson, JPMorgan, Citigroup, Albertson’s, Ericsson After the bell: Hancock Whitney Corporation Wednesday, October 15 Empire State Index 8:30 a.m. ET Fed Beige Book 2 p.m. ET Before the bell: Abbott Laboratories, ASML, Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, Synchrony Financial, Prologis, PNC Financial Services, Citizens Financial Services, First Horizon After the bell: JB Hunt, United Airlines, SL Green, Synovus Financial Corp., Home BancShares Thursday, October 16 Philadelphia Fed Index 8:30 a.m. ET NAHB Housing Market Index 10 a.m. ET Before the bell: Bank of New York Mellon, Marsh & McLennan, Charles Schwab, Travelers, US Bancorp, KeyCorp, Snap-On, United Airlines, M&T Bank, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company After the bell: CSX Corp, Interactive Brokers, Bank OZK, Liberty Energy Friday, October 17 Before the bell: Truist Financial, American Express, Fifth Third Bancorp, Huntington Bancshares, SLB, Regions Financial, State Street, Fifth Third, Comerica, Ally Financial (Jim Cramer’s Charitable Trust is long BLK, WFC, GS and ABT. 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