Now even London turns on Starmer: Bombshell poll predicts Labour will suffer huge losses in the capital at next month’s local elections as Greens and Reform UK surge

Keir Starmer suffered fresh pain today as a bombshell poll showed Labor would suffer huge losses in London in next month’s local elections.

A YouGov model has predicted the Green Party and UK Reform Party will make a big breakthrough in the county council contests on May 7.

The Greens, who are challenging Labour’s recent dominance in the capital, are expected to gain the highest share of votes across London’s four councils.

The research also predicted that Reform would win the highest vote share in the three counties.

The MRP (Multilevel Regression with Post-stratification) model, based on a survey of thousands of voters, suggested Labor was heading for its worst result in London in 50 years.

Sir Keir’s party is expected to win the highest share of votes across the 15 councils; This will be six points lower than in 2022.

The embattled Prime Minister’s allies, who are under intense pressure over the Peter Mandelson scandal, are preparing for a leadership battle after elections in May.

As well as council contests in London and across England, there are also elections for the Scottish Parliament and the Welsh Senedd next month.

Half of London’s 32 borough councils are rated by YouGov as either ‘very close’ or ‘super close’ ahead of next month’s competitions

Labor is expected to gain the highest share of votes in 15 councils; This will be six points lower than in 2022

Labor is expected to achieve dismal results in all three countries as voters express their views on the unpopular Prime Minister.

YouGov MRP predicted the Greens, boosted by support from ‘eco-populist’ leader Zack Polanski, would win the highest vote share in Hackney, Lambeth, Lewisham and Waltham Forest.

All four London authorities have long been held by the Labor Party.

The model also predicted that Nigel Farage’s Reform would be the best-supported party in Labour-run Barking and Dagenham, Conservative-run Bromley and Havering, which are not currently in overall control.

According to the research, the Conservatives are on track to win the highest vote share in five councils, while the Liberal Democrats are on track to win the highest vote share in four councils.

Lewisham and Hackney has not been governed by a party other than Labor since the 1970s, Waltham Forest since the 1980s and Lambeth since the 2000s.

Half of London’s 32 borough councils are rated as either ‘very close’ or ‘super close’ by YouGov ahead of next month’s competitions.

In 2022 Labor won 21 councils in London; The Conservatives won five and the Liberal Democrats three.

YouGov research has revealed a “highly fragmented picture” ahead of this year’s election, with all five of Britain’s biggest parties recording double-digit vote shares.

Labor is expected to top the London ballot once again, but this will be a loss of just a quarter (26 per cent) of the vote across the capital.

This rate has decreased by 16 points since the 2022 elections, while the Conservatives have fallen by nine points to 17 percent.

The biggest beneficiaries of the decline of Britain’s two traditional main parties will be the Greens (22 per cent, up 10 points since 2022) and Reform (14 per cent, up from almost 0 per cent in 2022).

The Liberal Democrats have a 14 per cent vote share in London in 2022, virtually unchanged from the 15 per cent vote share predicted in the YouGov poll.

YouGov research has revealed a “highly fragmented picture” ahead of this year’s election, with all five of Britain’s biggest parties holding double-digit vote shares

Patrick English, YouGov’s head of elections, said: ‘This broadly reflects what we are seeing at a national level; the massive dispersal of votes across all these different parties.

‘They’re all eating each other’s cake and creating a situation where the largest party vote share for each council could be 23 to 25 per cent.

‘Fragmentation means fewer and fewer winning posts, and small changes in voting intention numbers can change the picture significantly.’

A separate poll also suggested Labor could be swept away by a ‘Sea of ​​Green’ in parts of London next month.

A poll by Ipsos UK has found that 49 per cent of voters in the capital are considering backing the Greens on May 7.

It also showed that 44 per cent of voters in the capital were considering voting Labor, while 35 per cent were considering backing the Liberal Democrats.

Meanwhile, 28 per cent would consider voting independent, while 16 per cent would support Reform.

Keiran Pedley, Ipsos UK Director of Politics, said: ‘Our data suggests there could be a sea of ​​Green in London after the May local elections.

‘There is a desire for radical change and deep concerns about the cost of living.’