One Nation and independent Michelle Milthorpe frontrunners in major upset for Liberals
Farrer said federal voters would cast their votes for change on Saturday, much to the chagrin of Pauline Hanson’s One Nation and independent Michelle Milthorpe beating leader Angus Taylor to snatch the seat from the Liberals.
Liberals handing out how-to-vote cards outside polling booths in south-west NSW electorates were pessimistic about their chances of retaining abandoned leader Sussan Ley’s former seat, which has been a Coalition stronghold throughout its 77-year history.
The Liberals have held the seat since Ley seized it from the National Party in 2001, but they face a backlash that spreads to regional centers and small towns. It was littered with rival orange campaign signs, many of which were erected this week for One Nation and Milthorpe.
Hanson is enjoying a record polling season as voting closes at 6pm, with the result shaping up as a test of the Coalition’s electoral fitness and One Nation’s staying power.
For many voters, the chaos that followed Hanson’s party throughout the campaign seemed less offensive than what they described as tired and careless Coalition and Labor machines.
People this imprint spoke to outside Farrer polling booths on Saturday cited water issues, renewable energy, high government spending, poor health care, homelessness, high cost of living and feeling neglected as reasons for wanting change.
“We’ve had enough, it’s time to bring in new blood,” one woman said. “Pauline has ideas that I think the rest of us think, but she’s a little afraid to say them.”
One Nation candidate David Farley, whose campaign has been dogged by controversy, said voters should choose the minor right-wing party if they wanted change and denied he would be at risk of defection if elected under Hanson’s banner.
The 69-year-old agricultural businessman has faced scrutiny over his political past, including his attempts to run for Labor ahead of the 2022 election and his support for Milthorpe’s campaign in 2025. But those controversies didn’t sit well with his supporters, many of whom dismissed the attacks against him as establishment noise.
Milthorpe, a 47-year-old educator, won every election in Albury last year but faces a dramatically changed political landscape in this by-election. The independent, who has sought to distance himself from the “turquoise independent” movement while receiving funding from Climate 200, acknowledged that the contest had attracted far more attention than his attempt to unseat Ley a year ago.
“Every vote counts, so you have to stay positive and I have a lot of people behind me,” he said after voting Saturday.
Liberal leader Taylor ruled out the possibility that she might not win the seat when she held a press conference alongside Liberal candidate Raissa Butkowski on Saturday morning.
“Well, I’m going to fight until 6 o’clock tonight to make sure we do that, and that’s my focus today, working with Raissa,” he said.
“I’ve said it from the beginning, this is a big mountain to climb with a long-term local member leaving, of course. But Raissa is absolutely the perfect candidate. I’ll be there for her throughout the day and fight hard.”
“We will speak to the people of Farrer and ensure they understand our commitment to important issues in this area.”
But Liberal insiders have privately said they are bracing for a primary vote as low as 20 per cent on Saturday.
In the 2022 election, Ley received 43.4 per cent of the primary vote for the Liberals, while Milthorpe came second with almost 20 per cent of the vote. In that poll, One Nation recorded just 6.6 percent of the primary vote. After the preferences were counted, Milthorpe won 43.8 percent of the preferred vote over the two candidates, reducing Ley’s margin to 6.2 percent.
But this month’s by-election turned out to be a very different contest. The Liberals lost their incumbent and when the seat became vacant, the Nationals entered the race for the first time in 25 years. While One Nation’s votes began to increase in opinion polls after the last election, the Coalition’s votes fell to record lows.
Both the Liberals and the National Party favored One Nation ahead of Milthorpe on their how-to-vote cards; This could be crucial in swinging the vote in Hanson’s favor.
Taylor demurred when asked if he helped hand Hanson the seat. “The first point I would pay attention to is that choices are determined by the voters. I also have great respect for the voters,” he said.
“The second point I would make on this is that our second choice is the National Party. What you’ve seen over the last few months is a National party and a Liberal party working together like never before, and that’s a big change.”
National leader Matt Canavan has been much more cautious about his party’s chances as he navigates voters for much of the past month.
“We haven’t run for this seat in 25 years. We haven’t been on the ballot. So it was a big ask, a big task to reintroduce ourselves to the people of Farrer,” he said.
“We’re not going away. I see it more as a two-legged football final, right? It’s kind of an away game for us. [this] byelection The government will not change today. I understand that people want to give us a kick, and it’s kind of a free kick. Fair enough. However, the next election will be a general election very soon. Maybe this will be our home field. “We will continue to fight.”
Australian Electoral Commission spokesman Evan Ekin-Smyth said 700 staff were working at 74 polling stations in the southwestern NSW constituency, which is roughly the size of Greece. About 47 percent of voters had cast their ballots before Saturday.
Natassia Chrysanthos is a Federal Political Correspondent. He has previously reported on immigration, health, social issues and the NDIS from Parliament House in Canberra.Connect with: X or email.
Rob Harris is a national correspondent for The Sydney Morning Herald and The Age, based in Canberra. He is a former European correspondent.Connect via email.
