One Nation now has to hold itself together — and grow

One Nation’s victory in Saturday’s Farrer by-election was no surprise, but the magnitude of the victory is nothing short of disastrous for the Liberal Party.

As of this writing, David Farley has around 40% of the first preferences (an increase of more than 30% compared to One Nation’s 2025 performance) and has won comfortably. count favored by two candidates 57-43 against independent candidate Michelle Milthorpe. But the most significant figure is the 12 per cent primary vote for Liberal candidate Raissa Butkowski; This represents a negative swing of 31 percent relative to the 2025 federal election. biggest swing against a party in federal by-elections since 1970.