Online sleuths are raising more red flags around suspiciously timed Iran-war oil trades

• Oil prices fell after reports that Iran and the United States were nearing an agreement to end the war.

• Data highlighted by online commentators showed a well-timed oil shortfall just ahead of the report.

• Former JPMorgan analyst Marko Kolanovic said this showed “clear manipulation of markets.”

Oil prices fell on news that the United States and Iran were nearing a peace deal; This development brought huge profits to traders who were short on crude oil just before the news.

Data flagged by the Kobeissi Letter shows that a roughly $1 billion crude oil shortfall opened about an hour before the attack. action report He said the United States and Iran were nearing an agreement to end the war.

Kobeissi summarized his Letter analysis as follows: Wednesday morning post:

“At 3:40 a.m. ET today, roughly 10,000 contracts worth of crude oil was shorted without any significant news.

This is equivalent to ~$920 million in notional value; This is an unusually large trade for 3:40 AM ET.

Just 70 minutes later at 4:50 a.m. ET, Axios reported that the United States was “close” to a “consensus agreement” that would end the Iran War.

As of 7:00 a.m. ET, oil prices are down over -12% and these crude oil shorts have gained approximately +$125 million.”

Brent oil fell to 11.9 percent WTI oil fell more than 13 percent. At around 10:20 a.m., Brent and WTI were trading down nearly 7% at $101.93 and $95.06, respectively.

This decline reflects investors’ optimism that the war is nearing its end, based on the reported agreement. This would also be an unexpected development for those who bet on the decline in crude oil.

Former JPMorgan quant chairman Marko Kolanovic The Axios report reacted to the movements in oil prices, saying “Who knows what will happen next in clearly manipulated markets?”

Eric Nuttall, partner and senior portfolio manager at Ninepoint Partners, commented on the analysis in The Kobeissi Letter: saying“We continue to encourage energy investors to focus on the ‘morning after’ as daily fluctuations can be deliberately triggered for nefarious reasons.”

The trades highlighted by online market watchers are the latest example of well-timed bets tied to developments in the war. A $950 million oil trade on April 7 and a $760 million bet a week later were placed just minutes before the breaking news that moved the price of crude oil.

Still, conflicting signals about the prospects for a lasting peace emerged on Wednesday, as has become common during a ceasefire since the beginning of April. Markets positioned for war to end.

Ibrahim Rezai, Spokesperson of Iran’s National Security and Foreign Policy Commission, in question That the Axios report represents “Americans’ wish list” and not the reality of the negotiations.

Read the original article Business Content