Opinion | How Trump Can Prevent a War Over Taiwan
China and the United States are more close to a war on Taiwan than ever.
A dangerous feedback cycle has emerged in the last decade: the challenge against Taiwan China leads to an aggressive humility from Beijing and stronger rhetoric support for Taiwan in Washington. Pater, who strengthens himself, repeats himself. Each time, it moves Taiwan more to the center of the US-China relationship, increases the risk of conflict, and provokes a good analysis of what to do about this seemingly stubborn situation.
This arc has not been predetermined. Nor is it unchanging, and in Donald Trump, the United States is uniquely positioned to a norm -challenging president.
The best bet of the Trump administration to avoid the war is to make a bold agreement with China, to reject the US defense accumulation in the region and to regain the balance along the Taiwan Strait by realizing that it is neither guaranteed by the American military backup of Taiwan.
If this seems simple and logical in a deceptive way, the reason for this is for everyone’s benefit because it works before.
Since the communist forces seized China’s control in 1949, the US-China has become a thorn in its relations and took US-backed nationalists to Taiwan. China has never given up its goal of merging the island with the mainland. Beijing and Washington in the 1970s to agree: United States, the government in Beijing China Single Legal Authority And he acknowledged that Beijing was part of Taiwan’s part of China. America also avoided supporting Taiwan’s independence and limited contact with Taipei to unofficial channels, even when providing weapons and other military support.
This unstable activity was extremely successful with the stability that allowed China, Taiwan and most of the most. Asia with to develop. The United States has made great benefit from the rising trade and other cooperation with the region, and to date, Taiwan continues to be a self -governing democracy.
Things started fragmentation In 2016, when Taiwan chose Tsai Ing-Wen, a president who selected his predecessor’s approach to hosting China and responds to the island by increasing military and economic pressure. Also Mr. Trump, BeijingAfter the 2016 victory, Mrs. Tsai is engaged in a protocol to accept the call for congratulations and restrictions On diplomatic contact with Taiwan.
More damaged under President Joe Biden again and again in question He would send us power Defending Taiwan against the attack, leaving for a long time “strategic uncertainty(On this question. (The authorities then confirmed that the US policy remained unchanged.) And in 2022, Nancy Pelosi He made the first visit to Taipei by the speaker of a house living in 25 years, Chinese military intimidation Taiwan raised.
Mr Trump, who is looking for an agreement with China on trade and security, seems to be careful to antagonize Beijing in the second period. This summer administration rejected Taiwan President Lai Ching-Te’s request to stop in the United States on his way to Latin America. canceled Defense speaks to Taipei.
The President should go even further by strongly confirming that the US does not support the independence of Taiwan, that it does not re -strengthened and stopped the restrictions on diplomatic themes. congress And Ministry of Foreign Affairs Taipei’s efforts to expand their participation in international organizations against China. Trump can also remove management US military trainers From Taiwan and weapon systems In the region that provokes China as much as they deterred.
Mr Trump, of course, should seek mutual steps from China, for example, as a statement where Beijing is not a timeline for merge with any company to unite with Taiwan. China should also commit to reclaim the cyber war, military threats And trade sanctions Fear and challenge against Taiwan.
This offer finds receiving ears in Beijing. China also hopes to avoid a war and tremendous costs. There No guarantee The difficult weather, the land and the sea campaign to seize Taiwan will be successful, and the failure for the Chinese Communist Party will potentially weaken its legitimacy at home. President Xi Jinping is struggling to restrain the permanent corruption that may affect the military preparation in the people’s liberation army. slowing economy It can withstand a long conflict and trading cuts.
To make an agreement with China is politically risky for Mr. Trump. Support for Taiwan He grew up in Washington, especially at his own party and the president may face charges disputeGi Beijing and leaving Democratic friend. But Mr. Trump is unique to such a return. He put a compatible republican party and the congress in line, and as a second term president, he doesn’t have to worry about the election again.
In any case, this is not about leaving Taiwan. This is only about reducing the central role in the US-China bonds. Taiwan is of course valuable for the US, not only as a symbolic democracy, but also as a source. advanced semiconductors. But even this is not worth fighting America. China a Great military powerWith the growing arsenal of missiles and nuclear weapons that can reach the US motherland. Already with military resources over -stretched With clashes other places, the US may meet the conflict with China.
Taiwan has been an important factor in the warning spiral. In January 2024, Mr. Lai won a more confrontational stance against China than Ms. Tsai. Taipei should be aware that the United States may not be there to help and that he should refrain from proclaiming Beijing. This can be finally the best way To protect Taiwan’s freedoms.
Such a bustle can of course fail. However, this would not leave the situation worse than now. And only efforts will send an important signal that the US is willing to give and undertake great importance to China.
It would not be the winner of a war between the United States and China. The prevention of the person will guarantee Mr. Trump as a peaceful place in history as a very cuvet.
