Modi has a shot at history-making with EU’s India visit
Von der Leyen wants what she calls “the mother of all agreements”. Prime Minister Narendra Modi should give it to him when he visits this week. Not just because India needs it or Europe wants it, but also because of the impact it will have on US President Donald Trump.
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It’s clear why the Europeans are pressing now. The continent is beset on all sides: Russian aggression, Chinese pressure, and its own many weaknesses. Most importantly, their concerns about America’s abandonment have now turned to alarm under Washington’s intimidation.
India, on the contrary, is a vision of stability. It offers a constantly growing market. It does not pose an existential threat. New Delhi may not be in perfect harmony with Europe’s capitals on climate or Ukraine, but at least it is not trying to coerce, dispossess or humiliate them.
Modi will of course roll out the red carpet when von der Leyen arrives as the chief guest at India’s Republic Day. It should also cut through the red tape in the free trade agreement.
Negotiations were supposed to be concluded by the end of 2025. But New Delhi has spent the last few months staring at the White House. He does not want his concessions to the EU to become the basis for new demands by America First ideologues. Objectively, it also made sense to resolve relations with the more unstable partner first.Also Read| India-EU FTA negotiations are nearing an end, the agreement is expected to be reached at the summit on January 27
But the chances of the US reaching any credible agreement with India have diminished. Trump appears to want New Delhi to humiliate him, crediting the president not only with making the deal but also thanking him for bringing peace to the subcontinent. Modi cannot do this; His nationalist base will not allow this.
In any case, it was always unlikely that some magic concession would lead Trump to withdraw his 50 percent tariffs on India, abandon his long-held view that the country was unfairly getting something for free, and embrace the benefits of partnership and integration. Something else is needed to break the monotony of negotiations between these two countries.
Concerns in New Delhi about how the White House will react to the India-EU deal are justified. For protectionists, every trade agreement that is not signed with them is signed against them.
Everything we know about Trump suggests that he will see this as an open challenge: A continent he has just mocked and pressured is turning against him, along with a country he is trying to corner. Let’s say his reaction might be extreme.
Modi should not be afraid of this, he should welcome it. He should sign because of this, not despite American pressure.
Trump respects power, or at least the appearance of it. Europe and Brazil are being bullied; China and Russia do not do this. Faced with a hostile United States, India found itself wielding alarmingly little influence. If he’s looking for ways to show the United States that he won’t back down, signing one of the largest bilateral agreements in history seems like the perfect choice.
Modi’s voters are also looking for power. They may not be interested in the details of non-compliant phytosanitary standards or data privacy regulations. But they know how to react when their prime minister takes a stand; for example, dealing with Europe, which at this very moment is the focus of Trump’s anger. They will see this as proof that India can rule a crowded and hostile world on its own terms.
Whatever is on the table now will not be perfect. The agreement may not be complete by excluding some agricultural products; It may not give Indian automakers the protections they want, and European activists will likely worry about labor and environmental provisions.
But the longer the waiting period for agreement, the higher the chances of this moment passing. The broader the agreement, the more likely it is that the European Parliament will leave it in some sort of legal limbo, just like the agreement with Latin America. Perfectionism in negotiations is the same as paralysis.
Once you sign an agreement with Europe, the US will have to accept that India has options and can act on them. And in the meantime, it will provide a new direction for energy for India’s economy, which has been frustrated by America’s trade barriers against China.
For more than a decade, a dozen press releases have declared this agreement to be historic. If so, it’s time to make history.
