Overseas student intake to increase as universities face financial trouble

Despite the promise of reducing net migration, the government increased the student procurement limit to fight universities. Abul Rizvi.

This week, the government announced that a student will adopt the level of national planning (NPL) 295,000 for 2026.

This is an increase of 25,000 on the “limit of 270,000 students announced by the government for 2025.

This puts the car in front of the horse, because the government did not explain how the 270,000 valves, the new 295,000 NPL, the Treasury’s current net migration forecast. The government has not already explained how to manage the demand for permanent migration, especially from former overseas students.

High NPL is designed to appease the requests of additional financing against the background of many universities faced with deep financial problems. A higher NPL allows the government to avoid using taxpayer money to save universities. However, many of them do not replace a good policy to hurry to soothe universities that put themselves into financial problems due to bad management.

Prime Minister’s net migration consistent with the promise of returning to pandemic levels, Treasure In 2024-25, he envisaged that net migration would fall to 335,000. In 2023-24, we will not know whether this decrease caused by over 445,000 net migrations was delivered until December 2025, when the preliminary estimation of net migration was published in 2024-25.

In order to comply with the promise of the Prime Minister, the Treasury envisaged net migration, then fell to 260,000 in 2025-26 and then to approximately 230,000 from 2026-27. This steep decline in the net migration of the estimation is largely based on a huge increase in the division of existing and former students to unprecedented levels.

As the departures are increasing, we know that most of the students have extended their stay by applying for more student visa. Many of them are stuck in the accumulation of more than 350,000 large bridge visas, including approximately 40,000 objections against the decisions of rejection on land. Administrative Investigation Court. Increasing number applies for shelter.

Approximately 230,000 people went to temporary graduate visas. This level has not been seen. Most of the temporary graduate visa holders apply for temporary talented visas. Within six months until December 2024, there was an increase of 400% of temporary visa holders, which secured temporary visas.

Temporary talented visa holders are the primary source of employer -supported permanent visas. The number of talented temporary visa holders in Australia is currently 220,000 records.

In addition, both common visas and various skill flow visas, a major application for permanent migration work. The rapid increase in this accumulated business accumulation would be significantly driven by former overseas students. This is the inevitable third stage of a student visa explosion.

The government still does not disclose planning levels is against this background. 2025-26 Migration Program. I suspect that it is offered with political and legally terrible options. Ministry of the Interior. However, if the government thinks that it has some terrible options for the 2025-26 migration program, under the current policy settings, they will worse for 2026-27 and later.

For 2026, 25,000 higher NPL will increase pressure on both permanent program and net migration. Keep in mind that between 40% and 50% is the largest component of net migration. It is strange to increase this part before determining whether the Prime Minister’s Net Migration promise to pre -pandemic levels is strange.

Although the student contributes to the permanent program is smaller, this inevitably will increase as the number of students and former students stuck in the limb of immigration. High NPL makes it difficult to manage.

Later in this year, the Treasury will inform the government that the government should increase net migration forecasts because the departments have not increased rapidly and that the government continues to announce new visa measures that will keep the government high. Based on my calculations, 300,000 long -term net transition forecast per year is more reasonable based on existing policy settings.

And this is before considering the effect of the Treasury on the net migration of higher NPL.

The government had to take into account these problems before hurry to appease universities. He put the basket in front of the horse and now work with it.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=czno_wzou8q

DR ABUL Rizvi An independent Australian columnist And a former deputy secretary of the Ministry of Immigration. You can follow Abul on Twitter @Rizviabul.

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