Written by: Ana Mano and Peter Hobson
BARRETOS, Brazil, Jan 7 (Reuters) – Brazil overtook the United States last year to become the world’s top beef producer, according to market estimates, after the South American country beat production forecasts by hundreds of thousands of tonnes, easing a global supply crunch and helping to limit a rise in meat prices.
Brazil was already the largest exporter of beef, with shipments of meat worth about $17 billion in 2025, according to government trade data released Tuesday. Beef production figures won’t be released until February, but analysts have recently raised their estimates. Farmers are sending more animals to slaughter, capitalizing on higher export demand from countries such as China and the United States, where low supplies have pushed beef prices to record levels.
Increased slaughter typically leads to a period of low production as producers retain animals to breed and rebuild herds. But productivity gains in Brazil could limit or even prevent the downturn, people in the industry say. They noted that farms inseminate cattle faster, feed them faster, and slaughter them at younger ages.
“Ten years ago, the average age of cattle slaughtered in Brazil was five,” said Vinicius Barbosa, a commercial manager who oversees tens of thousands of cattle at the CMA feedlot in Barretos, about 260 miles (420 km) north of Sao Paulo. “It’s been 36 months now and it’s quickly heading towards 24,” he said.
Brazilian beef production has far exceeded its 2025 forecast, said Mauricio Nogueira, head of livestock consultancy Athenagro. It said production rose 4% for the year, when it had forecast a 2.7% decline. The increase of nearly 800,000 tonnes was equal to the total annual exports of Argentina, the world’s No. 5 cattle shipper.
Rabobank, which had expected Brazil’s beef production to decline in 2025, now forecasts a 0.5% increase, equivalent to 12.5 million tonnes of carcass weight. The U.S. Department of Agriculture raised its estimate for Brazilian beef production in December by 450,000 tons to 12.35 million tons.
If official figures confirm market forecasts, 2025 will be the first year in which Brazil’s production will exceed US production, which fell 3.9% to 11.8 million tonnes in 2025, according to USDA forecasts, after years of drought.
FEEDING PARTS, INCREASED CARCASE WEIGHT DRIVE OUTPUT
The USDA said U.S. beef production will fall 0.9% to 11.7 million tons in 2026. In Brazil, the USDA and Rabobank are predicting a decline in production, but Nogueira said increased efficiency could actually increase Brazil’s production by about 300,000 tons.
Almost 28% of cattle slaughtered in Brazil will be fed in feedlots by 2027, up from 22% in 2025, according to consultant Scot Consultoria.
“What pastures do in 18 to 24 months, feedlots do for cattle in 100 days,” Barbosa said, adding that CMA’s Barretos feedlot could process 80,000 cattle in 2026, up from 65,000 last year.
Brazil’s booming corn ethanol industry produces a byproduct known as dried distillers’ grains, which is higher in protein than corn and helps cattle fatten up faster, analysts said.
As farmers adopt more efficient insemination techniques, cows are becoming pregnant more often, allowing producers to slaughter more animals without reducing herd size.
Scot Consultoria expects Brazil’s pregnancy rate (the proportion of women who become pregnant during the reproductive season) to increase from an expected 50% in 2026 to 54% in 2027.
Better genetics also improves cattle growth and increases meat quality, analysts say. And Brazil still hasn’t reached the 90% rate of cattle passing feedlots like in the US or the 40% in Australia.
If Brazil’s pregnancy rate rises to 66%, the equivalent of neighboring Argentina, the number of calves born each year will rise from an estimated 32 million to 40 million, according to Datagro consultants. They said the pregnancy rate in Canada is 96%.
Government data shows there are 238 million cattle in Brazil; This figure is more than double the 94 million cattle in the United States. Higher productivity will allow increased production without increasing the number of cattle or pasture area. This could alleviate one of the economic drivers of Amazon rainforest deforestation.
Brazil’s cattle herd is expected to grow just 4% between 2024 and 2034, while beef production is expected to grow 24%, according to Brazilian beef exporter group ABIEC. According to USDA forecasts, US beef production will increase by 3.5% and the number of cattle will increase by 5% during this period.
WHEN TOP MANUFACTURERS SCALE DOWN, BRAZIL IS THE KEY
Global beef prices will depend on whether Brazil can avoid a decline in production this year.
USDA expects output from the world’s six largest producers to fall a combined 2.4% in 2026, the biggest annual decline in decades, following a 0.4% increase in 2025. These producers are Brazil, the USA, China, the European Union, Argentina and Australia. The list does not include India, which the USDA names as one of the six largest producers of beef, even though it produces buffalo meat rather than beef.
USDA expects Brazilian production to fall 5.3% this year, equivalent to 11.7 million tons of carcass weight. If Nogueira’s forecasts are confirmed and production increases to approximately 12.6 million tonnes, the decline in the top six producers would be only 0.2%.
“There has never been this much international demand for Brazilian beef,” said Datagro analyst Guilherme Jank, adding that local beef packers were also increasing capacity.
“We are witnessing first-hand a significant shift in the functioning of the cattle supply system in Brazil in terms of quality, scale, efficiency and productivity,” he said.
(Reporting by Ana Mano in Barretos and Peter Hobson in Canberra. Writing by Ella Cao in Beijing and Tom Polansek in Chicago. Additional reporting by Brad Haynes and David Gregorio.)
