Pathetic Keir Starmer must face reality in Iran – all bets could soon be off | World | News
Keir Starmer was pathetic (Image: PA)
In a remarkable 48 hours over the weekend, the Middle East went from uneasy semi-peace to all-out war. The direct catalyst for the outbreak of hostilities was the breakdown of talks between the United States and Iran in Geneva last Friday. Trump demanded that Iran halt its nuclear program, ballistic missile production, and support for various militia proxies in the Middle East.
Iran stalled and tried to prolong the talks, but the United States refused to accept its agenda and Trump lost his patience and ordered his troops to mobilize. But signs that direct action was imminent were present long before the first air strikes on Tehran and elsewhere. The dramatic increase in US military power in the Gulf and Eastern Mediterranean was a clear indication that Trump meant business. It was just a matter of time.
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Now we are facing a full-scale fire. Israeli and US airstrikes targeted numerous sites across Iran, decapitating the Iranian government and killing Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and many of his followers.
Iran retaliated using a dispersed arms approach, launching ballistic missiles and drones against several Gulf states, using the US troop base there as a pretext to attack. Most of their guns hit, but a few penetrated and caused damage. And now a Saudi petrochemical plant is burning after a drone strike, leaving hotels and civilian venues damaged in Dubai and elsewhere.
The UK’s reaction to all this has been, frankly, pathetic. Initially, Starmer banned the US from using RAF Fairford in the UK and the joint US/UK base at Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean for any attack on Iran. He later changed his mind and also said RAF jets could be used for “defense purposes”.
RAF Akrotiri in Cyprus changed its mind once again when it was shot down by Iran’s Shahed unidirectional attack drone. Based on the historical foundation that the best defense is attack, the UK now looks likely to join the US and Israel in attacking Iran directly. And not before its time.
Starmer’s cowardly and indecisive approach to this international crisis bears all the marks of a weak leader. He seems to be torn between not wanting to show his lack of support for the United States, which is still Britain’s strongest ally despite the recent cooling and relations, and similarly not wanting to upset his local voter base, which contains strong anti-war and Muslim sympathies.
While trying to walk this tightrope, he can only succeed in satisfying both of them. Moreover, his hesitation did the UK no good internationally.
What happens now? As I write, the war continues as both sides continue to attack each other, the US-led coalition through airstrikes and ground-attack missiles, and the Iranians certainly more indiscriminately launching missiles and drones at multiple targets.
When he first announced Operation Epic Fury a few days ago, Trump talked about a four-day bombardment. He increased that estimate to four weeks as the extent of Iran’s angry response became more apparent. I wouldn’t bet against another extension of this when the time comes.
The most important card in Iran’s hand is the threat of closing the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly 20% of the world’s oil and gas resources pass, to all shipping. The United States is not blind to this possibility and has carried out preemptive strikes against Iran’s coastal naval bases.
But if the Iranians manage to mine the Bosphorus and stop all shipping movements, military and commercial, then all bets are off. It may require sending ground troops to Iran itself to prevent interference in clearing sea lanes.
Meanwhile, airspace in Iran and elsewhere in the Middle East was closed and most airlines canceled all flights to and through the region. Hundreds of thousands of expatriates and passengers heading elsewhere were stranded.
We are told that the UK is trying to make plans to send British citizens back to the UK, but with no planes flying it is difficult to see how this will be done in the short term. Unless something is given, they can be stranded for weeks, if not months.
Lieutenant Colonel Stuart Crawford is a political and defense commentator and former Army officer. Sign up for their podcasts and newsletters at: www.DefenceReview.uk
