Polymarket launches private company trading so investors can speculate on Anthropic, OpenAI

Polymarket is moving deeper into private markets – and this time the contracts are tied to companies that most investors can talk about but still can’t buy.

The company is launching prediction markets tied to private company milestones, including valuations, IPO timing and secondary market activity, for names like OpenAI and Anthropic.

Nasdaq Private Market will serve as the exclusive solution data provider providing information that determines whether these contracts will be settled.

These event contracts can solve one of many investors’ biggest frustrations.

Many companies create tremendous value and brand awareness before going public; More than 1,600 are unicorns valued at a billion dollars or more. Nasdaq. However, only accredited investors, an institution or someone with very good connections can invest directly in these private companies.

Ordinary investors often fall by the wayside.

Starting today, Polymarket’s contracts allow investors to take positions without equity, shares or voting rights on whether a particular specific market event will occur.

For example, Polymarket currently lists one market on whether OpenAI will have an IPO worth over $1 trillion before 2027, and another on whether Anthropic will reach a valuation of at least $500 billion in 2026. There’s also a contract asking whether Anthropic will be valued higher than OpenAI at any point this year.

These markets make decisions using data from the Nasdaq Private Market and will first make valuation data freely available to the public, with no subscription required.

Kalshi also offers some event conventions on whether private companies will go public, but they make decisions based on a combination of sources, including company sites, the SEC and a number of news outlets. It does not offer markets for private company valuations.

NPM’s own data shows why these contracts can attract attention. The share price chart on the Anthropic company page shows the estimated NPM price as of May 5 is $477.02, up more than 1,500%. It also lists the highest bid as $260.80, the lowest bid as $188.50, and the last transaction as $234.00. The page states that the NPM price is based on market activity, publicly available valuation data and proprietary information.

These contracts give individuals the opportunity to start creating value in the private market sooner, while giving institutions a real-time read on how investors are pricing private company momentum.

It may also have advantages for institutional investors. Secondary market prices, financing rounds, and IPO timing are still fragmented compared to publicly traded stocks. A liquid prediction market around these events could be another signal, especially for companies where public comps are imperfect and new private market data is difficult to find.

The real bet is not necessarily on OpenAI or Anthropic, but on whether private market information fuels contracts that are clear enough to trade, liquid enough to matter, and reliable enough to be settled.

Disclosure: Kalshi and CNBC have a business relationship that includes a minority investment.