Prediction market traders’ expectations for the NY primaries
State Rep. Claire Valdez, Democrat from New York and candidate for the U.S. House of Representatives, from left, former New York City comptroller and candidate for the U.S. Democratic House of Representatives Brad Lander, New York mayor Zohran Mamdani and Darializa Avila Chevalier, the candidate for the U.S. Democratic House of Representatives from New York, during a “Get Out the Vote” rally ahead of the 2026 primary election at the Kings Theater in Brooklyn, USA, on Thursday, June 18.
Adam Gray | Bloomberg | Getty Images
On Tuesday night, New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani faces his first major election test since his election in November 2025. While Mamdani is not on the ballot this time, his power to influence voters is evident.
Mamdani has endorsed three candidates in competitive congressional primaries in the city: former New York City Comptroller Brad Lander in New York’s 10th congressional district, New York State Assemblywoman Claire Valdez of NY-7, and first-time candidate Darializa Avila Chevalier of NY-13.
Traders on prediction market platform Kalshi think the mayor will triple to double.
Speculators have a 54% chance that Valdez and Lander will prevail and Chevalier will lose. They also give a 28% chance for all three candidates to win and a 20% chance for Lander alone to win.
These odds are based on individual combo contracts, where all three events must occur for each candidate to win or lose for the trades to be settled as “yes”. The results of the combined conventions are verified by the New York State Board of Elections.
Odds and gambling platforms do not use the same methodologies as traditional political polls and therefore do not replace political polls.
Lander, Mamdani’s ally, is challenging Democratic incumbent Rep. Dan Goldman. Goldman faces criticism from left-leaning critics Israel’s support In the area that includes midtown Manhattan and Park Slope in Brooklyn.
Kalshi traders give Lander an almost certain chance to win the Democratic nomination in the district, according to a convention that asks whether a candidate will win the Democratic nomination in NY-10. The results of individual candidate conventions were certified by the Democratic party.
Valdez is seeking to replace retiring Rep. Nydia Velázquez in NY-7, which includes Williamsburg in Brooklyn and Long Island City in Queens, but Velázquez has endorsed Brooklyn Borough President Antonio Reynoso. Reynoso has the support of progressives Working Families PartyWith Valdez’s support Democratic Socialists of America.
Investors in Kalshi think Valdez is preferred; They give him almost an 80% chance of winning the Democratic nomination.
Finally, Chevalier, who is also backed by the Democratic Socialists of America, is seeking to unseat incumbent Rep. Adriano Espaillat, chairman of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus. NY-13 covers Harlem and Washington Heights in Manhattan, as well as parts of the Bronx. Investors in Kalshi tell Espaillat it has a two-in-three chance of fending off Chevalier’s challenge.
Meanwhile, there is another contested primary in NY-12, which covers Midtown and the Upper East and West sides of Manhattan. Mamdani did not support any candidate in this race.
Rival AI super PACs are trying to boost and suppress the candidacy of New York State Assemblyman Alex Bores, an ardent supporter of AI regulations. OpenAI-backed Leading the Future spent $8 million against Bores, while Anthropic-backed Public First Action spent $11 million supporting him.
But Kalshi traders think state Assemblyman Micah Lasher is favored in the NY-12 contest, giving him a 74% chance of winning the Democratic nomination.
Disclosure: CNBC and Kalshi have a business relationship that includes customer acquisition and minority investment.
