Private payroll losses accelerated in the past four weeks, ADP reports
A ‘Hiring’ sign sits in the window of a Denny’s restaurant on November 19, 2025 in Miami, Florida.
Joe Raedle | Getty Images
The U.S. labor market is showing signs of further weakening, with the pace of layoffs picking up over the past four weeks, payroll processing company ADP reported Tuesday.
As part of its update, ADP said private companies lost an average of 13,500 jobs per week over the past four weeks. This represents an acceleration of the 2,500 jobs per week lost in the last update a week ago.
While the government shutdown is still impacting data releases, alternative information like ADP’s is filling in gaps in the economic picture.
Government agencies such as the Bureaus of Labor Statistics and Economic Analysis have released revised schedules, but critical reports such as the monthly nonfarm payroll census will not be released until December.
Policymakers at the Federal Reserve won’t have much of the usual data they use to make forecasts when they meet again on Dec. 9-10. However, in recent days, some officials have advocated additional interest rate cuts, causing the market to readjust expectations to expect a rate cut at next month’s meeting.
“With the next jobs report scheduled for Dec. 16 and the CPI for Dec. 18, there is little on the calendar that would derail the Dec. 10 cut,” Goldman Sachs chief economist Jan Hatzius said in a client note Sunday.
As the releases began rolling out, Hatzius said he expected “alternative indicators show renewed job losses in October” even though the BLS last week reported better-than-expected employment growth of 119,000 for September.
The Goldman team expects the Fed to react with a rate cut in December and another two quarter-point cut in 2026.
