Zelenskyy faces ‘mini-revolution’ as Yermak’s fall reshapes Ukraine’s wartime power system | Ukraine

Ukraine’s political system is preparing for a “mini-revolution” as district chief Volodymyr Zelenskyy is forced to adapt to life without his closest adviser, chief enforcer and most loyal partner Andriy Yermak, who resigned on Friday after his office was searched as part of a widening anti-corruption investigation.

Yermak’s resignation could have major consequences for domestic governance, as well as for Ukraine’s negotiating stance in negotiations to end the war with Russia, where he led the Ukrainian delegation in peace talks with the White House.

“This is a small revolution in the political system and the governance system,” said Kiev-based political analyst Volodymyr Fesenko. “Yermak was a key element of the power system established by Zelensky.”

Yermak, a former intellectual property lawyer, became a B-movie producer and then a lawyer for Zelenskyy’s production company. When Zelenskyy was still an actor. When his friend triumphed in the 2019 presidential election, Yermak entered politics with him, first as a foreign policy advisor and then as chief of staff a year later.

As Yermak got closer to the president during the years of all-out war, he became untouchable. He carried out the most sensitive tracks of Ukraine’s foreign policy, meeting regularly with the national security advisors of the allied countries, and took charge of the team working on peace negotiations.

He was also Zelenskyy’s chief political adjuster, frequently issuing orders to ministers and widely seen as the embodiment of the president’s will. It was Yermak who traveled to London to meet with former military commander Valerii Zaluzhnyi, widely seen as Zelenskyy’s most threatening political rival, and invited Zaluzhnyi to join Zelenskyy’s team.

Few among the Ukrainian elite liked Yermak, but many expressed grudging admiration for his work ethic and ruthless schemes. Some felt that the level of control, unusual in a democracy, was justified by the wartime context. Additionally, his role as a hate figure has often helped protect Zelenskyy.

Even as Yermak’s apartment was searched on Friday, few expected it would remove him from office, as there was widespread understanding that Zelenskyy was unlikely to sacrifice his most trusted aide at any cost.

Although Yermak was not facing any charges at this point, the anti-corruption investigation was in danger of overwhelming the news agenda and sparking a full-blown crisis, amid growing public dissatisfaction with corruption.

Zelenskyy’s approval rating had already taken a serious hit due to the scandal. On Saturday, Ukrainska Pravda reported through sources that investigators seized several laptops and mobile phones from Yermak’s apartment for analysis.

“This was a difficult decision for Zelenskyy to make; he understood the political need, but he was psychologically dependent on Yermak,” Fesenko said, and suggested that Yermak’s resignation was most likely Zelenskyy’s own decision, not that Zelenskyy had ordered him to leave. “I think Yermak realized that if he fell, he would bring Zelenskiy with him, and he decided to sacrifice himself to save Zelenskiy.”

As always happens after the ouster of a powerful political figure, the readjustment process can be complicated. Some of Yermak’s loyal aides will now fear for their jobs, while many among the elite will breathe a sigh of relief and hope for more direct access to the president.

“Yermak was guarding not only the president’s contacts with the outside world, but also the information reaching the president,” said Olena Prokopenko, a senior fellow at the German Marshall Fund.

Yermak was widely believed to control a network of Telegram channels that poured mud on those who opposed him, and was known for ruthlessly controlling access to Zelenskyy. “There were about five or six people who had direct access to the president, and Yermak tried to systematically push them out,” Fesenko said.

One of those who has managed to push back is Kyrylo Budanov, the longtime military intelligence chief who has survived several reported attempts led by Yermak to oust him. Others who ran afoul of Yermak or were seen to be too popular were unceremoniously expelled.

It is expected that Zelenskyy will announce a new name soon. Most of the names that have emerged so far are from the president’s inner circle, but it is unlikely that the person chosen will have the same power as Yermak, at least initially.

This could be challenging for a weakened Zelenskyy, especially if the corruption investigation is followed by new revelations. Alternatively, he could yield his presidency, which has been extended by more than a year from its planned end point due to the impossibility of holding elections during martial law, the influx of new ideas and the more consensual decision-making process that many have called for.

“There is a very strong demand in Ukrainian society to review the social contract between the president and the people and to restructure the relationship between the president and the cabinet and parliament,” Prokopenko said.