RBA minutes to be scrutinised as rate fears rise
Central bank watchers expect the “strong” speech at the Central Bank’s last board meeting to be more colorful as they try to predict the Central Bank’s next move.
Minutes of the RBA’s March meeting will be published on Tuesday and will be closely discussed after the meeting ended with a 5-4 split in favor of the hike; This is the narrowest decision since the RBA began publishing unattributed votes in July 2025.
“The RBA’s meeting minutes will be notable for additional information about the ‘robust debate’ behind the Board’s 5-4 split decision earlier this month,” analysts at JP Morgan said, quoting governor Michele Bullock’s description of the meeting.
Ms. Bullock said the dispute was a matter of timing rather than direction; The four doves argue for waiting until May to get a clearer picture of the impact of the Iran war, but agree that further tightening is needed to control inflation.
Forecasters at all four of Australia’s big banks expect the RBA to raise again in May, which would allow cash rates to peak again before the start of the rate-cutting cycle in February 2025.
Westpac’s chief economist now predicts the central bank will raise the rate from five to five, with further increases in June and August, leaving the cash rate at an 18-year high.
The RBA’s inflation fears were to be further fueled by the federal government’s decision to halve fuel duty, ostensibly to keep households going.
“What governments have given us through extra aid, there is a chance that the Reserve Bank will undo it with higher interest rates than they normally would,” said independent economist Chris Richardson.
Economists warn that giving consumers more money at a time when the RBA is already worried the economy is over capacity will only increase demand without increasing supply.
Australia’s Associated Press is the beating heart of Australian news. AAP is Australia’s only independent national news channel and has been providing accurate, reliable and fast-paced news content to the media industry, government and corporate sector for 85 years. We inform Australia.
