Reader Q&A: Rafael Behr answers your questions – live | Politics
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Key events
What will the geopolitical impact on a Burnham government be? Should be relax the fiscal rules?
mspiggy asks: 1. Given the external factors of the economic situation + Trump (Iran etc), will/can the impact on the UK general public of a Burnham or even a Polanski administration be any different to the outgoing Starmer/Reeves administration?
2. Would you advise a Burnham administration to relax Labour’s fiscal rules? What do you think the outcome would be of doing so/not doing so?
Raf: 1: The defence and security partnership with the US is extremely tight and bundled very deep. Much of the UK’s defence capacity really relies on the Pentagon. In this respect the “special relationship” is hard-wired in. That isn’t an argument for just sucking up to Trump regardless of what he does, but it does explain why Starmer had to tread very carefully indeed. There is a case for seeking much more strategic autonomy from Washington but that’s a challenge to be met over a generation. Can’t be done quickly and is very expensive.
2: The fiscal rules thing is both more complex and simpler than often presented. Ultimately everyone involved, including the bond traders, know it is an artificial construct, but the rules do function as a commitment to recognise finite budget capacity, which matters. Yes, there are arguments for borrowing more to invest in the productive capacity that will generate more revenue in the future, through higher growth. By this mechanism, we should be able to loosen the reins a bit on the understanding that the benefits will accrue soon enough. Bond traders understand the macroeconomic logic of that argument but they don’t necessarily trust the politicians to really be thinking about the long term. It could too easily sound like the chancellor is saying “I want to borrow a load more money so I don’t have to make hard spending/cuts choices in the run up to an election, but I promise I’ll get it all sorted the moment after polling day.” If you don’t have credible revenue projections, the market is going to be very sceptical. As it was with Liz Truss. Ultimately the bond market is just the mechanism by which the UK government borrows money and, like any lender, it sets the terms according to how confident it is in the reliability of the borrower. The fiscal rules are a convenient badge of seriousness for a country that has, sadly, been rather too unserious in the recent past.
Does everyone hate Starmer but me?
LadyPercy asks: I don’t hate Keir Starmer. Am I alone?
Raf: No. I don’t hate him either. I was sceptical to begin with, then started extending the benefit of the doubt, then stretched it as far as it would go – some might say too far – and accepted, eventually, that he wasn’t up to it. I find the levels of vitriol directed at him perverse and demoralising. He has become a receptacle for many years of disappointment with successive prime ministers. Something about the nature of his failure, the way he set himself up as the totem of Change and then delivered what felt so much like more of the same, seems to have distilled public disappointment into an exceptionally potent venom. He came to be seen as the archetypal deceiving politician who promises it all and delivers nothing, and ended up suffocating under a weight of incumbency that covered not just his own government but every government that preceded it. A tragic fate, in some ways.
What will happen to Starmer’s policy agenda now?
Perspectiverox asks: Afternoon Rafael. I was wondering whether there are any policies that Keir Starmer has been especially keen on that might lose prominence if there were a change of leader and also whether there are any policies that could move up the agenda instead. Digital ID and water nationalisation came to mind, but are there other areas where you think leadership change might possibly alter priorities?
Raf: It’s an intriguing question because one of Starmer’s weaknesses has been his inability to signal the kind of keenness on priorities that you describe. What is his big thing? What would he have imagined his legacy might one day be when he started? He seemed to get bounced into so many of the choices he made as part of the endless tactical grind to get through another week. I remember one of his many relaunches being pegged to a big announcement on AI, but does anyone now think of that as Starmer’s signature policy? But for this reason, I think a lot of what he started will carry on for the simple reason that a lot of things that would be very controversial ended up being abandoned or never started. Digital IDs were made non-mandatory, for example, which makes them simpler to roll out. The steps towards utility nationalisation are very much in the direction that Burnham has indicated he wants to travel. The EU reset, being negotiated behind the restrictive red lines, is low-stakes enough that a new prime minister can easily nudge agreement over the line. The social media ban for under 16s might get tangled up in the legislative process, but that could easily have happened if Starmer stayed on. Nothing much can lose prominence because the most prominent feature of his leadership was the absence of distinctive prime ministerial agenda.
Are journalists to blame for the insability in No 10?
OOOFleming asks: Do British journalists need to do some soul searching over their role in the instability in No 10? Two years of Starmer as PM and every single hiccup presented as if it is a total crisis.
Raf: I think this is a function of a deeper problem with Westminster political culture to the extent that there is a frenetic and pretty mypopic news cycle and the appetite for scandal is vast. And also there is a section of the press that hates the idea of Labour government and treated Starmer as a squatter without a real mandate from day one. But – and it is a big but – I wouldn’t primarily blame journalists for destabilising this government. He did that to himself by making a lot of bad mistakes, failing to communicate the purpose of his government and failing to engage with the Labour MPs who were despairing because of what they could see was happening in their constituencies. It wasn’t journalism that made Starmer think it was a good idea to raid the PIPs budget to make up fiscal headroom, call it welfare “reform” and then U-turn under pressure, or appoint Peter Mandelson to Washington or any other missteps.
There is a question of whether governing has become generally much harder in an age of constant media frenzy and, especially, social media fragmentation. I have no doubt that it has. The kind of message control that New Labour was able to exert in the late 90s is simply unavailable now and the techniques that work online are great for demagogues and charlatans, not so good for promoting nuance and considered reflection based on the evidence. But politicians in other countries face the same challenges and last longer than two years. The bulk of Starmer’s problems were self-inflicted.
What will a post-truth world look like?
911IsAJoke asks: If it were to ever materialise, how will the post “post -truth” world look?
Raf: I don’t have a good answer to this one but I’m pretty sure it comes about through a serious reckoning with AI models and how they process the idea of “truth”.
The whole post-truth discourse in recent years has largely been a function of fragmentation in the information space caused by social media. To my mind (and I’m far from the only person to see it like this) it is a transformation in the foundations of what we judge to be an authority, with the old hierarchies – the gatekeepers and arbitrators of fact – being pulled down, analogous to the upheavals of the European Reformation. It isn’t comfortable for journalists, academics, mainstream politicians to see themselves cast in the role of the old Papal hierarchy and monasteries with a bunch of digital anabaptists burning everything around them. The analogy is flawed in all sorts of ways, but as a rough guide to the likely scale and duration of turmoil, it’s quite instructive. Worth noting, though, that the counter-Reformation was surprisingly successful but that’s a whole historiographical minefield I won’t blunder into.
The key point is that new institutions and new mechanisms for establishing trust will eventually come into being, maybe on the foundations of old ones, maybe as innovations using the very technologies that seem to have undermined the foundations of epistemological security in the first place. I recommend Jonathan Rauch’s book The Constitution of Knowledge on this subject. Also, I found this Substack essay by Dan Williams, a Cambridge philosopher, really interesting on what AI will do.
A counter-intuitive and often persuasive view making the case that LLMs, far from accelerating the fragmentation and dissolution of information into post-truth mush, actually represent the pendulum swinging back the other way.
Why is the government still on X?
nickwayne asks: Should the government set an example by leaving X? It amplifies the poison left by Brexit.
Raf: Yes. I find it a bit mystifying that this hasn’t happened yet. There is an argument that you need to keep a presence there in order to bring some semblance of balance – that you need the “good” information in the ecosystem to stop it all being overrun by the “bad” stuff. But when the algorithm belongs to a man like Elon Musk, who has for years promoted anti-immigrant and far-right content in his own posts, it seems pretty futile to think anything like fair balance can be achieved. But this is part of a wider dysfunction in the way digital discourse is debated in UK politics. There is a misconstrual of the whole thing as a question of “free speech”. That isn’t an irrelevant consideration. We have to be careful about regulating information flows. But what is happening now is the capture of the entire information ecosystem by platforms and people who have extreme ideological agendas, actively try to subvert UK politics and aren’t citizens of the UK. It is a matter of control of the basic infrastructure that allows politics to function effectively. When people are poisoning the wells from which we need to draw essential water to irrigate democracy it is no longer a simple “free speech” issue.
Is the Norway option still possible?
MrGluben asks: Is the compromise of rejoining the single market via membership of the EFTA (and by extension the EEA), the so-called Norway option, still a possibility?
Raf: Absolutely, at least from a technical point of view. And the Lib Dems recently made this their policy precisely in the hope of putting pressure on a new (Burnham, presumably) government to move in that direction. In some respects the EEA/EFTA idea is easier because it’s an off-the shelf model and would give Brussels a clearer sense of the destination the UK has in mind, making the negotiations easier to structure. The problems are, of course, political. The big one is freedom of movement, which is a non-negotiable part of SM membership. When I asked Ed Davey’s office about this, I was told he thinks it’s a winnable argument: that the British public are so down on Brexit, so aware that it has gone wrong, and mindful that leaving th EU hardly dealt the immigration issue anyway, that freedom of movement could be sold as a reciprocal benefit and that the merits of a much closer relationship with our continental neighbours would facilitate better cooperation on other migration issues, chiefly the small boat crossings. There is some polling evidence to support that optimistic view. The European Council for Foreign Relations has a new poll out that suggests freedom of movement, if advertised as part of a package of general trade and economic integration, is acceptable to a majority of people by a surprising margin.
There is another problem with EEA/Norway etc, which is the old “soft Brexit” issue of rule-taking. As members of the single market but not full members of the EU, the UK would end up aligning with regulations over which it has very little say or agency. This is one of the bitterest ironies of Brexit. The eurosceptic myth of Brussels “dictating” laws to parliament never took account of the power that British ministers had on the European council, often with veto powers. “Europe” was not something “they” did to “us” but something we did to and for ourselves. But once we left, the threat of taking dictation became a self-fulfilling prophecy. Our interests demand closeness to the single market but proximity without a voice really is a loss of sovereignty. Maybe worth it, but not great. That’s the logic that dragged us towards ever harder iterations of Brexit, leading to the deal we now have, which turns out to be disastrous.
So the bottom line – one that was clear enough back in 2016 to those who thought it through – is that the logic of a soft Brexit tends inevitably to the view that the softer the Brexit, the better it is for Britain; and so the best kind of Brexit is no Brexit at all!
Could the UK rejoin the EU without another referendum?
nivlek47 asks: Our media, especially the print media, is the same as it was 10 years ago. Even if there was another referendum in 10 years, we will still have the same media who were for Brexit be against rejoining, and the same old bendy bananas “arguments”. Wouldn’t it be better to have re-entry as a manifesto pledge and just do it, rather than risk another generational referendum?
Raf: I think it would be hard to enact anything as significant as rejoining the EU without a referendum and, for the reasons you say, there would have to be a very clear and solid majority in favour before even embarking on a campaign. But that would be a condition of starting the negotiations with Brussels anyway. The EU is not going to be interested in a serious process to hammer out terms of UK membership 2.0 if it looks like a knife-edge issue in domestic politics. European leaders were burned enough by the first referendum and by the spectacle of Donald Trump coming back after four years of Joe Biden. So, in a way, the question of whether or not to have a referendum is barely relevant. If you have completely won the key political arguments in favour of Britain being part of the European project again and its not even controversial any more, you can have the vote, and if you haven’t made that kind of progress, you won’t be in a position to try your luck with a plebiscite.
But I do think there is path that involves a party winning a general election with a pledge to open talks on joining the EU and that election victory being used as the lever to really shift the dial in public debate. As with so many of these scenarios, a really talented communicator as leader and media strategy fit for the fragmented, polarised digital climate are key.
Welcome to the Conversation
Welcome to our latest Q&A with a Guardian journalist. Political columnist Rafael Behr is online now answering your questions.
Sign up here to join the discussion and post your questions
