Republicans stare down inflation abyss with midterms fast approaching

Republicans have been saying for months that inflation was former President Joe Biden’s problem. Now, they are staring down the barrel of an inflation crisis of their own making, just in time for the midterm elections, and the blame game is just beginning.

Inflation rose to 3.8% on an annual basis in April, the highest level since 2023. Much of this rise is due to rising energy prices that have continued since President Donald Trump started a war with Iran.

Trump and congressional Republicans came to power in 2024 promising to defeat the inflation that has dogged Biden’s presidency. But they now risk defeat in the 2026 midterm elections because of their own inflation crisis and are struggling to find a clear message to combat high prices as the president pushes for a $400 million White House ballroom and a $1.8 billion taxpayer-funded legal aid fund for victims of the government’s “weaponization.”

Congressional GOP members are now wondering whether their priorities are in the right place.

A moderate R-Pa representing a volatile zone. “With half of America living paycheck to paycheck, the word ‘ballroom’ shouldn’t be in anyone’s vocabulary,” Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick told reporters at the Capitol. “We should always focus on affordability. Both sides got that wrong. That’s why we’re in the crisis we’re in right now.”

Fitzpatrick’s comments were a rare rebuke of Trump’s priorities within his own party; The party has remained largely aligned with the president through months of economic turmoil brought on by an on-again, off-again tariff regime and now by war with Iran.

And when asked what Republicans could say to voters in their districts, Fitzpatrick didn’t exactly defend the GOP.

“So what if both parties are broken, so we need to eliminate the two-party system?” he said.

He is not alone among Republicans warning that inflation will hurt the party in November, especially after years of rising costs have plagued Americans.

R-Neb., a frequent critic of the president who will retire at the end of his term. “The situation is not as bad as it was under Biden,” said representative Don Bacon. “But I think most Americans haven’t recovered from all of this, and so it’s still a problem.”

Bacon directed his fire at Trump’s inflation tariffs.

“I think tariffs are bad policy. Milton Friedman, Adam Smith, these are the bible of conservatism and we violated them,” he said, referring to free market economists. “We shouldn’t have overlooked this issue in Congress.”

Asked what Republicans could say to Americans to show Americans that life is better under GOP rule, Bacon said, “The president can certainly show that we’ve secured the border.”

It’s been four years since the U.S. consumer price index peaked at 9% in June 2022, fueling Americans’ anger over post-pandemic price increases. Now the war with Iran is fueling affordability fears again.

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ latest consumer price index release, household groceries rose 0.7% between March and April alone. This contrasts with the 0.25% average monthly increase in food prices in 2025.

The national average for a gallon of gasoline was $4.49 on Tuesday; this was 51% higher than just before the start of the war. According to AAA.

Voters have been voicing their dissatisfaction with commodity prices and the economy in general for years. Meanwhile, Trump’s approval of the economy has also fallen precipitously, with only 33% of voters giving him a positive rating in the last election New York Times/Siena College questionnaire. His approval on the cost of living was even worse, with only 28% of voters saying they approved.

Democrats are leading in congressional polls. A. RealClearPolitics The poll average shows Democrats ahead of Republicans by 7.1 percentage points. Republicans have a 5-seat majority in the House of Representatives.

Rep. Suzan DelBene, D-Wash., chairwoman of the House Democratic campaign branch, told CNBC that voters were reacting to “broken promises.”

“They say over and over again, ‘just wait, things will get better,’” DelBene said. “None of this has been true, and people are tired of broken promises. Trump said day one he would cut costs.”

Not all Republicans are losing hope that they can change the course of inflation.

Rep. Zach Nunn, R-Iowa, said he expects voters to respond to the tax cuts Republicans passed as part of the 2025 budget reconciliation measure known as the One Big Good Bill Act.

“If you’re looking for a solution to this, which group made the largest tax cut in American history?” said Nunn. “We’ve had more trade deals than ever before lately…approved things like biofuels, which translates to $23 billion in economic growth for my home state of Iowa, and we’ve also been able to say that we’re making real coasting a priority, so local economic growth is starting.”

Senior Republican leadership continues to present an optimistic outlook on the economy and the upcoming elections.

House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., said Sunday he expects Republicans to win in November.

“I firmly believe we will increase the majority,” Johnson told Fox News during an interview at the Indy 500. “Kitchen table issues will determine the midterms.”

But how Republicans will lower kitchen table prices come election time remains an open question. Some Republicans have proposed a third tax and spending package this year focused on cutting costs. Doing so would be a monumental task, especially after Trump angered some of his Senate allies last week with a ballroom crackdown, the confirmation of challengers to popular incumbents and a Justice Department “armament” fund.

But most Republican policymakers agree that the most critical of those prices, gasoline, is unlikely to come down until the war with Iran is over or the Strait of Hormuz, the critical conduit that carries one-fifth of the world’s oil, is opened.

natural resources research firm Wooden MackenzieA recent analysis found that if conflict is resolved quickly, Brent By the end of the year, crude oil will fall to $80 per barrel. If the strait remains closed until the end of the year, the situation will worsen and crude oil will rise to $200 per barrel by the end of the year.

“It all comes down to getting energy costs back to where they need to be, which will require some solutions in Iran,” said House Natural Resources Chairman Bruce Westerman, R-Ark. “There are still some things we can do through compromise, but it’s just a basic supply and demand issue here.”