Republicans top California’s confounding race for governor, poll shows

Despite Democrats’ long and entrenched dominance of California politics, a new poll shows two Republicans holding slim leads in the state’s 2026 governor’s race as the June primaries fast approach.

The confusing results appear to be mostly due to the state’s left-leaning voters feeling uninspired by a single candidate in the crowded field of eight top Democrats. Because of California’s first-of-two primary rule, this drowsiness could lead to Democrats being shut out of the November elections that will determine the next leader of the union’s largest state, but that still seems unlikely.

Conservative commentator Steve Hilton had the support of 17% of likely voters and Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco had the support of 16%, according to a poll released Wednesday by the UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies and co-sponsored by The Times.

Close behind were Democratic Rep. Eric Swalwell of Northern California and former Orange County Rep. Katie Porter, both of whom had the support of 13% of voters surveyed. The poll showed that aside from billionaire hedge fund founder and environmental activist Tom Steyer, who won 10% support after pouring tens of millions of dollars into his campaign, no other Democrat won the support of more than 5% of likely voters.

Mark DiCamillo, the poll’s director, said he was struck by how divided voters were and how little they knew about the candidates with less than 60 days until ballots start arriving in Californians’ mailboxes.

“This is a historic event for me, and it’s surprising, too, especially considering that neither candidate has a really positive image among voters. Maybe one of the reasons why voters are apathetic is that they’re not enthusiastic about either candidate,” he said. “They are kind of sleepwalking into this election.”

Swalwell and Porter both gravitated toward the party’s progressive wing and rose to national prominence as frequent guests on cable news shows and as combative, sometimes theatrical committee members during congressional oversight hearings. This notoriety led to attacks from Republicans and the far right and increased their popularity with the Democratic base; Both are crucial to voters looking for a strong candidate to challenge President Trump.

Porter has rebounded somewhat from a dip in the polls in the fall after videos emerged of him berating an aide and a reporter. He also has the highest positive rating among candidates in this field, at 34%.

Steyer’s support among likely voters rose from just 1% in Berkeley’s October poll to 10%, according to the poll. This momentum comes after Steyer spent nearly $50 million broadcasting television commercials Since December, according to analysis by data expert Paul Mitchell for Capitol Weekly.

Among other leading Democrats in the race: former U.S. Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra was supported by 5% of voters; former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa and San José Mayor Matt Mahan at 4%, and former state Controller Betty Yee and state Supt. Public Education increased Tony Thurmond by 1%.

The poll found that 16 percent of voters were either undecided or supported other lesser-known candidates.

Fractured support for Democrats hoping to become the state’s next governor has surfaced in other ways, too. On Monday, the powerful California Labor Federation voted to endorse four gubernatorial candidates, half of whom are Democrats.

DiCamillo said he believes the survey’s inclusion of the titles of the candidates voters will see on their ballots is crucial in a low-information contest.

“This is really important in a race where voters don’t have a lot of information, or they say they don’t know a lot about the candidates,” he said, adding that it could especially help Bianco, the Riverside County sheriff. “The job title is pretty impressive, and voters think it’s credible, so let me weigh in on that.”

Fears of two Republicans winning the top two spots in the June 2 primary led California Democratic Party Chairman Rusty Hicks to urge low-ballot candidates to evaluate their chances of survival and withdraw if they saw no path forward earlier this month.

Some candidates were outraged, arguing that party leaders were essentially telling every black candidate to leave the race. Except for one candidate, all of the top Democrats in the race responded by quickly filing campaign documents with the state department; This means their names will be on the ballot.

The two candidates who receive the most votes in the primary are the only candidates who can participate in the November general election, regardless of their political party.

The odds of a Republican becoming California’s next governor appear slim. No Republican has won a statewide election in California since 2006, when Hollywood movie star Arnold Schwarzenegger was elected to a second term as governor. Registered Democratic voters in the state outnumber Republicans by nearly 2 to 1.

Compared to previous gubernatorial races that featured Democratic frontrunners, neither party’s candidates are particularly well known to voters. A large number of voters have no opinion on either candidate, including nearly two-thirds of those asked about Mahan, Yee and Thurmond.

Voters are much more focused on the most important issues the state’s next governor must address.

The survey found affordability prevails among all voters, regardless of political ideology. Four in 10 voters said lowering the cost of living in California was among the top issues the next governor should prioritize, and a smaller number of voters also highlighted building affordable housing and lowering gas prices and utility rates.

“Affordability is the most important issue for voters both in California and across the country. There’s no doubt about it,” DiCamillo said. “Perhaps this is even more pressing given that our cost of living is higher in California than many other places.”

Building new housing, quickly allowing such construction and rolling back regulations to reduce the cost of buying a home, discouraging private firms from buying homes and lowering gas prices are among the issues that candidates frequently talk about on campaign trails and in debates.

The poll found a significant divide among voters on reducing waste, fraud and political corruption in state government. Nearly 50 percent of Republicans said it was a top priority, while 10 percent of Democrats and just over a quarter of voters did not indicate a party preference.

DiCamillo said that sentiment is consistent with President Trump’s messaging and what his administration is pursuing in the federal government. Trump has repeatedly portrayed California as a place filled with waste, fraud and abuse. On Monday, California was among the states with inadequate oversight of federal funds when it established a task force to combat fraud, to be led by Vice President J.D. Vance.

DiCamillo said GOP voters in California share similar sentiments.

In Washington, D.C., he said, “they’re trying to shrink government, they’re making cuts, and…they’re also reducing waste.” California “Republicans think more of that is needed in California, too, given the fact that Democrats have controlled things for so long.”

The Berkeley IGS/Times poll surveyed 5,019 registered voters in California between March 9 and 14 in English and Spanish. The results are estimated to have a margin of error of 2.5 percentage points in either direction for the overall sample and larger numbers for subgroups.