Ignore the favorites and back these longshots in the 2026 RBC Canadian Open at TPC Toronto this week

Because this is a week before the opening of another national opener, the PGA TOUR in America. 2026 RBC Canadian Open There is a stronger field at TPC Toronto this year than in previous seasons.

Eight players in the top 20 in the Official World Golf Rankings, including the three English favorites Matt Fitzpatrick, Justin Rose and Tommy Fleetwood, will compete at TPC Toronto next week in preparation for the US Open.

Unfortunately this semi-impressive area gets lost in this cake course. Last year’s Canadian Open bird festival And those who know the ballaka golf course enthusiasts are dragging TPC Toronto by calling it lackluster and uninspiring.

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Speaking of “uninspiring,” my golf betting season has been brutal. After going 0-up at the Memorial Tournament last week, my 2026 PGA TOUR balance is roughly -36 pieces (you). Thank God for the NBA playoffs, because I’m robbing Peter (NBA) to pay Paul (golf).

This week I’ve marked everyone with odds below +3000. TPC Toronto is too easy and the odds on the favorites are too short compared to the actual winning odds. Here are my best bets for the national deficit next door to the north.

RBC Canadian Open 2026 Betting Card

The odds below are based on previous bets I have placed on the golfers listed below. It is subject to change.

🇺🇸 Brooks Koepka +3233 (0.62u) And +198 top 20 with a draw (1u), both in Kalshi.

🏴​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ Alex Fitzpatrick +4100 (0.49u) on DraftKings and Top 20 with +165 draw in Kalshi (0.75u).

🇺🇸 Eric Cole +5713 (0.35u) and Top 20 with +207 draws (0.5u), both in Kalshi.

🏴​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ Harry Hall +6111 (0.33u) and Top 20 with +207 draws (0.5u), both in Kalshi.

🇿🇦 Aldrich Potgieter +9900 (0.2u) at Polymarket and Top 20 with +425 draws In Kalshi (0.25u)

Brooks Koepka

Koepka’s ball-striking has been as good as ever lately; He can’t make any hits. Considering how easy TPC Toronto’s starting batting (T2G) is, Brooks should get plenty of quality looks for birdie.

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On TOUR this season, he finished sixth in Strokes Gained (SG): T2G and fourth in SG: Approach. Again, Koepka can’t putt this year, but TPC Toronto has Bentgrass greens and this is his best putting surface.

More importantly, Brooks has six top-20 finishes in 10 starts this year; He stood out with a T13 in THE PLAYERS Championship and a T12 in the Masters. His ball-striking should keep him in the top two pages of the leaderboard, and Koepka’s top-20 draw is a “plus EV” look.

Given how poorly I’ve run in golf betting this season, I doubt Koepka will pull off victory this weekend. Brooks will probably win again this year, though, and that’s a big price to pay considering he’s the most accomplished golfer in the field.

Alex Fitzpatrick

I agree, Alex is likely to die this week because I’m betting on him. But that’s a good number for Fitzpatrick considering how well he played at the Canadian Open.

Since earning his full-time TOUR card by winning the Zurich Classic team event with brother Matt, Alex has posted three top-10 finishes in five starts, including T9 in the Cadillac Championship, fourth in the Truist Championship and T6 in the Memorial Tournament. These are all “signature events” with strong fields.

Alex Fitzpatrick hits his approach shot during the third round of the 2026 Memorial Tournament at Muirfield Village Golf Club in Dublin, Ohio. (Samantha Madar/Columbus Dispatch / Imagn Images via USA TODAY NETWORK)

TPC Toronto is a driver-heavy track and Fitzpatrick has made putts with his driver in all five starts on TOUR this year. First place in both models I ran Betsperts Golf. This season, Fitzpatrick ranks fourth in total drives, which takes into account distance and accuracy, and fourth in birdie or better rate (%BoB).

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Fitzpatrick is not popular in the betting market because he is Matt’s younger brother. But Alex has the game and if he has a good weekend he will become the second Fitzpatrick to win a regular PGA TOUR event this year.

Eric Cole

This is another guy who has great starting form but is not respected in the betting market.

In five of his last six starts, Cole has finished T14 at the Valero Texas Open, T6 at Zurich, T6 at the Myrtle Beach Classic, finished second and lost in the playoffs at the Charles Schwab Challenge and finished eighth at the Memorial last week.

He won overall strokes in his last two starts at Colonial Country Club (Charles Schwab) and Muirfield Village (Memorial), much tougher courses than TPC Toronto.

Cole leads the field in BoB% over the last 24 rounds. Betsperts Golf. Ultimately, I want raw scorers on my Canadian Open betting card because TPC Toronto was so easy last year.

Harry Hall

If you blend Koepka’s ball striking with Hall’s swing, you have a great golfer. Hall won strokes on the green in his three Canadian Open matches. Last year he finished T24 at TPC Toronto, batting 3.74.

Although his T2G play has been weak this season, he has participated in a few tournaments. Hall was T6 at the 2026 Sony Open, T9 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational (signature event) and T8 at Truist.

Harry Hall makes birdie during the 2026 Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill Club & Lodge in Orlando, Florida. (Re-Hold Matay-Imagn Images)

He finished a respectable T29 at the Memorial last week and earned strikes with his irons and bat. Muirfield Village, home of the Memorial, is one of the toughest courses on the TOUR. However, if TPC Toronto plays easy T2G again this year, Hall could pave the way to victory. Or at least that’s my theory.

Aldrich Potgieter

This kid is only 22 years old and already has one win on TOUR, the 2025 Rocket Mortgage Classic, and has shown some form lately. Potgieter has made the cut in five of his last six starts, including four straight. In his last start, he finished T35 at the 2026 PGA Championship and won all-around putts.

Additionally, three of the top four seeds at the 2025 RBC Canadian Open are bombers and good shooters: Ryan Fox (first), Sam Burns (second) and Cameron Young (T4).

Potgieter raced and won last year and can do it again this week. He leads the TOUR in driving distance this season and has earned strokes in three of his last four outings.

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Three of these tournaments were signature events, and the other was the major tournament. Potgieter shouldn’t be higher than +6000 in this area, so I’m getting good value here.

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2026 RBC Canadian Open ‘One and Done’ Selection: Alex Fitzpatrick

Mayo Cup season ranking: 4,204 with $4,446,923.

Since my only chance to make money in this league is to get excited with opposing picks, I’m using Fitzpatrick here, who I don’t expect to be very popular. I wouldn’t be surprised as no one wants to waste a good player at the Canadian Open.

Regardless, I’ve already used two of the top five picks at the Canadian Open and Brooks at the Texas Children’s Houston Open. So I might try my luck with Alex and hope to be ranked if he wins this week.

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