John Rentoul answers your Clacton by-election questions – from unity candidates to whether Binface can win

Nigel Farage’s decision to trigger a by-election in Clacton has turned into a farce and its fallout has triggered some questions. Independent readers.

The Reform UK leader’s only declared rival is Count Binface, a man in a trash costume, after other mainstream parties refused to run; This is intensifying scrutiny of an undeclared £5 million gift from British-Thai businessman Christopher Harborne and support from convicted criminal George Cottrell, which triggered the competition in the first place.

Farage insisted the election was “real” and accused the main parties of “underestimating the voters” for not contesting the election; This has only fueled speculation about his real reasons for calling the election.

Meanwhile, ministers claimed he was just “trying to act like Donald Trump”.

In a recent Ask Me Anything session, readers pressed me on everything from whether this tactic had already backfired, to how seriously a standards committee investigation could threaten it, to what the byelection gambit means for the rest of the Reform campaign.

Much of the debate has focused on a simple but unresolved question: whether this byelection is a shrewd pre-emptive strike or a serious miscalculation. I argued that while the tactic was Farage’s least worst option, it would delay rather than defuse the reckoning over his finances.

Here are some of your questions and my answers in the Q&A:

Question: Can Farage survive losing so many votes to a novelty candidate?

anonymous

A: I could be wrong, but I think this is very unlikely. I assume Farage will win by a landslide with low turnout. It would be an embarrassment for Farage if Binface gets 45 per cent of the vote, but his core supporters will be with him as long as he wins.

Question: Has this tactic backfired, or will Farage be able to regain control of the story?

YetAnotherName

A: I think the by-election tactic is the least bad option for him. Of course, what he should have done was: I made a mistake; I should have declared the £5 million gift from Christopher Harborne and the in-kind donations from George Cottrell, I’m sorry, let’s move on now.

But he is very mean and proud and thinks that journalists who are doing their job and asking legitimate questions about his finances are part of the “establishment” out to get him.

So he follows Trump’s pattern of never admitting fault and launches a full-scale attack on anyone who dares to undermine his image as a martyr to his cause.

He will win the by-election and can mock the main parties for being too cowardly to oppose him. They’ll keep talking about a guy with a trash can on his head. But then, if the standards committee decides against him, as it appears to do, triggering a recall petition and another by-election, he will retain the initiative and tell Clacton voters: Tell them one more time.

Question: Did Farage miscalculate in this by-election?

PinkoRadikal

A: He did not have a good option and chose the option that allowed him to take the initiative and strengthen the support of his base. I think the main parties miscalculated; If they think Farage is such a charlatan they should present their case to Clacton voters and try to persuade them. This is particularly true of Kemi Badenoch: Clacton was once the seat of the Conservative party, which Reform is trying to replace by the Tory party. It seems the main parties know they can’t beat Farage, so they won’t try.

However, at least they did not make the mistake of uniting behind an anti-Reform or anti-“scum” candidate, as Martin Bell did in Tatton in 1997. This would suit Farage and allow him to portray himself as a brave outsider fighting against the establishment’s “one party”.

Question: Should other parties have supported a unity candidate?

SRogers

A: An anti-reform unity candidate would benefit Farage. He could say that all the “establishment” parties were united against him.

Q: Does this byelection get in the way of the Standards Committee investigation?

Anonymous

A: I’m not sure the standards committee will give him a paltry fine if Farage is found to have failed to disclose recordable donations. £5 million is such a huge sum that trying to keep it secret would be a pretty serious breach of the rules, if it is a breach at all. If he is suspended from the House of Commons for more than 10 sitting days, that could trigger a recall petition, and if there is support from 10 per cent of his voters, it could mean a new by-election. But by fighting a by-election now, Farage will have taken some of the sting out of it and can use it to his advantage as evidence that the “establishment” continues to persecute him.

Question: Does Farage need to finance this by-election himself?

Realistic2

A: I think the by-election is a waste of public money, just as I think David Davis’s by-election in 2008 to protest New Labour’s “authoritarianism” was a stupid stunt. But I would hesitate to try to devise a law that would prohibit it; especially in similar situations, all sensible people think that MPs who change parties should resign and participate in by-elections under their new colors.

Question: Has Farage been advised to personally contest this by-election and are any of these being funded by his US Republican supporters?

Laertes

A: I understand Farage has decided to fight the by-election himself. Those around him were skeptical about this, but he felt so persecuted that he thought it was the only way to deal with questions about his finances on his own terms.

No, I don’t think Farage is funded by Americans. The donations made by Thailand-based British-Thai dual citizen Christopher Harborne to Reform and to Farage himself are controversial enough. I doubt Farage can conceal illegal foreign financing; The resulting £5 million personal gift from Harborne was known to few people, but journalists had learned about it anyway.

Q: Will broadcasters be required to cover all candidates equally?

OKSausage

A: I doubt the by-election campaign itself will get much coverage, but broadcasting rules will make it difficult to report on anything Farage says about national politics or his finances. Any reference to him will require the publication of a list of all candidates.

Question: Can Reform campaign in Greater Manchester while the by-election is ongoing?

avid midlands reader

A: Reform has reportedly asked activists to join the campaign in Clacton rather than Greater Manchester, which makes sense to me. I don’t think they can win the mayoral by-election as the government reverts to the supplementary voting system that allows people to register second preference votes. It’s quite wrong for Labor to change the voting system to favor them, but additional voting is a better system than first inauguration.

Q: Could Andy Burnham’s devolution plan solve the problem of places like Clacton?

A: I think Andy Burnham understands that many voters in places like Clacton and Makerfield feel that Westminster has let them down, but I’m not sure he has the answers. Of course, so is Farage.

These questions and answers were part of the ‘Ask Me Anything’ program hosted by The Independent’s chief political commentator John Rentoul.

Some questions and answers have been edited for this article.

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