Prediction market firms face growing scrutiny as Congress weighs rules
Rep. Bryan Steil, R-Wis., speaks with reporters outside a House Republican Conference meeting at the U.S. Capitol on Wednesday, March 25, 2026.
Tom Williams | CQ-Roll Call, Inc. | Getty Images
The leader of the congressional committee that oversees the operation of the chamber said he is working on legislation to ban current lawmakers from betting on elections and politics in prediction markets, but also wants to expand that to former federal lawmakers and candidates running for those offices.
Rep. R-Wisc., who chairs the House Administration Committee. Rep. Bryan Steil told reporters this week that he sees no problem with lawmakers placing bets on non-political events, such as the results of sporting events. However, betting on elections and politics (issues where they have access to insider information) will be banned on platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket.
“Now that there’s a way to make sure that these new and sort of new markets are available to consumers, we need to put that clearly in the rules,” he told reporters in an interview.
Kalshi and Polymarket officials, as well as some traders on the site, met with lawmakers this week as part of a larger effort into how Washington interacts with prediction markets. In addition to legislation addressing insider trading risks, lawmakers are considering how to deal with prediction markets outside the United States
While the Senate has already changed its rules to ban senators and their staff from betting on prediction markets, the House is considering introducing a more specific ban into legislation.
Although there are already domestic business laws, Steil said it has become critical for lawmakers to avoid appearing to use their elected office for personal gain.
Steil, who is working with GOP leadership on his bill, plans to add language into the legislation banning lawmakers from buying stock. This bill was moved out of committee earlier this year but has not yet been voted on in the House, despite leadership promising to do so.
Steil said he would also like to see prediction markets “that are regulated in the United States, under U.S. values, and where we protect consumers from foreign transactions.”
Such a change could affect Polymarket, the largest prediction marketplace, which currently bans US users from its main exchange, but the company is working to gain a legal foothold in the US
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission regulates prediction markets and has argued in courts and in public statements that it should have exclusive regulatory authority over the industry rather than other federal agencies or states.
Polymarket and Kalshi supported the Senate’s move to ban lawmakers from betting. Kalshi also flagged and fined political candidates who used insider information about their race to place bets.
While Steil plans to introduce member betting legislation soon, broader bills regulating the market may take longer to be implemented. These would be under the jurisdiction of the House Agriculture Committee or the House Financial Services Committee.
As time quickly runs out for legislation this year, there is interest among Democrats to impose their own restrictions. When asked about the Senate rule change during the CNBC CEO Council Summit, Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (DY) said he thought the House would “follow suit.”
Disclosure: CNBC and Kalshi have a business relationship that includes customer acquisition and minority investment.
