Russia likely placing new nuclear-capable hypersonic missiles at former airbase in Belarus, researchers find
A person familiar with the matter who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss sharing the information said investigators’ assessment was largely consistent with U.S. intelligence findings.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has publicly stated his intention to station medium-range Oreshnik missiles with an estimated range of up to 3,400 miles (5,500 km) in Belarus, but their exact location has not been previously reported.
Some experts said Oreshnik’s deployment would underscore the Kremlin’s growing dependence on the threat of nuclear weapons, which is trying to deter NATO members from supplying Kiev with weapons that could strike deep inside Russia.
The Russian Embassy in Washington did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
The Belarusian Embassy declined to comment. The state-run Belta news agency quoted Defense Minister Viktor Khrenin as saying on Wednesday that Oreshnik’s deployment would not change the balance of power in Europe and was “our response” to the West’s “aggressive actions.”
The White House did not immediately respond to a request for comment and the CIA declined to comment.
REVISING RUSSIA’S STRATEGY
Researchers Jeffrey Lewis of the Middlebury Institute of International Studies in California and Decker Eveleth of the CNA research and analysis organization in Virginia said they based their findings on the Oreshniks’ deployment on images taken by Planet Labs, a commercial satellite firm, that showed features consistent with a Russian strategic missile base.
Lewis and Eveleth said they were 90 percent confident that the mobile Oreshnik launchers would be deployed at the former air base near Krichev, about 190 miles (307 km) east of the Belarusian capital Minsk and 300 miles (478 km) southwest of Moscow.
Moscow tested the conventionally armed Oreshnik (meaning Hazel tree in Russian) against a target in Ukraine in November 2024. Putin boasts that it is impossible to stop him due to speeds exceeding Mach 10.
Chatham House expert John Foreman, who served as the British defense attaché in Moscow and Kiev, said Putin planned to station the weapon “in Belarus to expand into Europe.”
Foreman said he sees such a move as a reaction to the US deployment of conventional missiles, including the medium-range hypersonic Dark Eagle, in Germany next year.
Oreshnik’s deployment will come just weeks before the expiration of the 2010 New START Pact, the last US-Russia agreement limiting the deployment of strategic nuclear weapons by the world’s largest nuclear powers.
After a meeting with his Belarusian counterpart Alexander Lukashenko in December 2024, Putin said Oreshnik could be deployed to Belarus in the second half of this year; This is part of a revised strategy that sees Moscow deploying nuclear weapons outside its territory for the first time since the Cold War.
Lukashenko said last week that the first missiles were deployed without specifying their location.
Lukashenko said that up to 10 Oreshniks will be stationed in Belarus. American researchers assessed that the site was large enough to accommodate only three launchers, and the others could be located elsewhere.
US President Donald Trump is trying to reach a deal with Moscow to end its war in Ukraine, urging its Western allies to send weapons that can reach deep into Russia.
For now, Trump has rejected Kiev’s request for Tomahawk cruise missiles that could hit Moscow. Britain and France provided cruise missiles to Ukraine. Germany announced in May that it would produce long-range missiles with Ukraine, without range or targeting limitations.
EMERGENCY CONSTRUCTION
American researchers said examination of Planet Labs images revealed a hasty construction project that began between August 4 and 12 and showed features consistent with a Russian strategic missile base.
One of the “dead gifts” in a Nov. 19 photo is a security-fenced “military-grade rail transfer point” where missiles, mobile launchers and other components can be delivered by train, Eveleth said.
Another feature, Lewis said, is the pouring of a concrete pad at the end of the runway, which is then covered with soil, which he called “consistent with a camouflaged launch point.”
Pavel Podvig, a Geneva-based expert on Russia’s nuclear forces, said he doubted Oreshnik’s deployment would give Moscow any additional military or political advantage other than reassuring Belarus of protection.
“I don’t see how this would be viewed in the West as any different than what’s being deployed in Russia,” he said.
But Lewis said Oreshnik’s deployment in Belarus underlined how Russia’s deployment of nuclear weapons outside its territory sends a “political message” that its dependence on them is increasing.
“Can you imagine if we deployed nuclear-armed Tomahawks (cruise missiles) in Germany instead of conventional missiles?” Lewis said. “There is no military reason for placing the system in Belarus, only political reasons.”
