Russia ‘mounted drone surveillance of European nuclear sites over 18 months’ | Russia
The Kremlin conducted a concerted surveillance campaign targeting nuclear sites in the United Kingdom, France, Belgium and the Netherlands using drones launched from shadow fleet ships over an 18-month period, researchers said.
An International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) analysis of 144 incidents in more than a dozen countries from late 2024 concluded that Russian intelligence operated with “significant impunity” and authorities across Europe remained baffled and confused.
UAVs have repeatedly been spotted over air bases and airports, but none have been captured or shot down by western militaries; This exposed a strategic failure in NATO air defense that the think tank said was quietly accepted across Europe.
RAF Lakenheath in Suffolk, a UK base prepared to house US nuclear weapons, and France’s nuclear submarine base at Île Longue in Brittany were among the sites targeted by unarmed drones believed to have been launched into the sea.
European governments were reluctant to accuse Russia of being behind the events, but senior IISS researcher Charlie Edwards said “every government we spoke to said they would be happy for the report to be published”.
The events analyzed include:
Unusual drones flew low over RAF Lakenheath, RAF Fairford in Gloucestershire and at least two US air force bases in England in late November 2024. US nuclear weapons deployed at Lakenheath in July 2025.
It is stated that the drones may have been piloted from the Seasons 1 tanker near Essex in the North Sea or from the Hav Dolphin, a cargo ship sailing towards the Hull docks at the time. Hav Dophin was also suspected of being behind drone sightings at a submarine base in northern Germany the following May.
A police helicopter attempted to follow the drones as they flew to the UK but withdrew for security reasons. Firing the anti-drone laser “was suggested, but ultimately no progress was made,” the report said.
In December 2025, five drones were detected over France’s Île Longue base, which hosts the country’s sea-launched nuclear missile arsenal. Three Russian shadow fleet ships were 60 to 120 miles (100 to 200 km) off the coast, and Hav Dolphin was 220 miles away near the Isle of Wight.
In November and December 2025, during a period when Russian shadow fleet ships were in international waters in the North Sea, drone attacks on Kleine-Brogel air base in Belgium and Volkel in the Netherlands, where air-launched US nuclear weapons are stored.
The report stated that the drones were likely launched from “dark sail” ships operating off the coasts of target countries with their transponder tracking devices turned off. Other ships are thought to have acted as rescue ships or signal repeaters, using drone control techniques first learned during the war in Ukraine.
“Our assessment is that it is highly likely that the Kremlin conducted a coordinated UAV. [unmanned aerial vehicle] The campaign includes more than a dozen NATO countries and Ireland, Edwards said.
He said it represented “a series of tactical successes for the Kremlin” and a “strategic failure of allied defenses” designed to target traditional military threats rather than low-cost, low-flying and relatively small unmanned aerial vehicles.
Russia’s motivations are considered a mix of nuclear surveillance, general reconnaissance, military logistics and mapping of supply chains, and “economic attrition and psychological warfare,” he said.
Significant drone sightings across Europe rose to more than 30 in September and November last year, with the most seen in Germany. They appear to be in decline since European navies began capturing shadow fleet ships in 2026.
Other incidents include a series of drone sightings in Denmark in September 2025 that led to the closure of Copenhagen airport and other airports in the country. At the time, four shadow fleet tankers were sailing near Denmark, including Boracay, which French commandos captured four days later.
Boracay was released a few days later, but boarding revealed that the tanker had a Chinese captain and two Russian citizens employed by Moran Security Group, a Russian private military company.
“The identification of two Russian private military contractors confirmed the militarization of shadow fleet tankers not as a hypothesis but as operational practice,” the IISS report said, in a campaign believed to have been organized by the GRU, Russia’s main foreign military intelligence agency.
Researchers also claimed that in December 2025, on the evening after the visit of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, four unmanned aerial vehicles were detected flying over an Irish navy ship towards the country’s coast. The Maltese-flagged Vezhen was sailing approximately 30 miles northwest of Dublin.
Swedish authorities arrested the ship in January 2025 due to damage to the undersea fiber optic cable, but released the ship after it was understood that the incident was accidental.
Various drone models are believed to have been used in the campaign, but none have been confirmed. The reconnaissance drone Orlan-10 has an operating range of 300 miles and can fly for approximately 12 hours, allowing it to be launched and piloted a significant distance from targets.
