Russia Puts The Ball In India’s Court Ahead Of Putin’s Visit – What Will New Delhi Decide? | World News

Putin’s Visit to India: The day before President Vladimir Putin landed in New Delhi, Russia did something that caught every strategist’s attention. By publicly stating how much it is willing to strengthen ties, Moscow has effectively made its next move with India, saying it is ready to take the relationship to a much higher level if India so desires.

The message came from Putin’s spokesman Dmitry Peskov at the online press conference held by the Russian agency Sputnik on Tuesday, December 2. In his usual measured tone, he said Moscow’s partnership with China went far beyond traditional borders and that Moscow viewed India in a similar manner. He said the depth of this relationship will ultimately depend on how far India wants to take it.

Peskov said, “China is our special strategic partner. We have very high-level cooperation with China, as with India. We are ready to expand cooperation with China beyond the borders. Our approach is the same with India. We are ready to go as far as India is ready to go. If India expands its cooperation, we are also fully ready for it.”

He also admitted that India is under pressure because of its ties with Russia, stressing the need for both countries to protect their trade and keep the relationship insulated from outside interference.

“We understand that India is under pressure. Therefore, we must be very careful in developing our relations. Our relations must remain free from the influence of any third country. We must preserve our ties and trade that benefits both parties,” he said.

Putin’s Pre-Visit Message

Earlier on Tuesday, President Putin had also spoken of his desire to elevate relations with both India and China to a “new dimension”.

For many viewers, the coordination of these expressions spoke volumes. Geopolitical strategist Velina Tchakarova believes Russia’s latest message to India is part of a careful balancing act. According to him, Moscow is trying to balance its increasing dependence on Beijing by establishing a greater strategic partnership with New Delhi.

Quoting Peskov on

He said: “This is a remarkable move: Moscow is clearly trying to balance its dependence on China by elevating India to equal strategic status. It reflects Russia’s quest for maneuvering space under sanctions, India’s centrality in the emerging new Cold War, and DragonBear’s attempt to keep New Delhi strategically close even as US-India ties deepen.”

“If India accepts even a part of this offer,” he said, “the geopolitical geometry of Asia will change again, such as Ukraine war diplomacy, BRICS+, energy flows and Indo-Pacific balance.”

To put it bluntly, Moscow wants India to enter into a depth of China-like partnership, but for this India needs to be able to withstand pressure from the West. Moscow also wants assurances that New Delhi will not limit trade because of American tariffs. Neither demand is easy for India.

What Does India Want?

Sreeram Chaulia, Dean at the Jindal School of International Affairs and author, believes Russia may want India to take the next step, but Moscow should not expect a dramatic change.

“Russia and China have a partnership and it is clearly anti-American. India does not want to be part of this camp. China and Russia see the USA as a rival, but India does not. India needs the USA for its development. It cannot abandon Washington for Moscow, and it cannot leave Russia for the USA,” he told the BBC.

Chaulia explained that Beijing and Moscow started a “borderless” relationship because they needed each other. India, on the other hand, needs all three (Russia, China and the USA) for different reasons.

“India’s relationship with Russia is mainly related to energy and defence. The relationship with the US is multidimensional. In 2024, India-US bilateral trade was recorded at $129 billion, creating a surplus of $45 billion in India’s favour. Why should India join an anti-American bloc? India needs US technology,” he said.

Peskov stated that India-Russia trade is currently at $63 billion and Moscow hopes this figure will reach $100 billion by 2030. Before the Ukrainian war started in 2021, this figure was only $13 billion. Almost all of the increase came from discounted Russian oil.

Trade Imbalance

Despite the numbers, trade is largely one-sided. In 2024-25, India exported only $4.88 billion worth of goods to Russia, while imports reached $63.84 billion.

Bloomberg reported that until October 15, Indian refiners were buying Russian crude at a discount of $2-2.5 per barrel compared to global benchmarks. However, in 2023, this discount was over $23. With the narrowing of the margin, India’s savings have decreased significantly.

According to rating agency India Investment Information and Credit Rating Agency (ICRA), India saved only about $3.8 billion from Russian crude oil in the last fiscal year; this fell short of the huge gains of the early war.

Meanwhile, the US remains India’s largest export destination; India’s exports were 87 billion dollars last year.

Russia wants India to achieve three things: decide whether it wants a “beyond-border” partnership with Moscow, ensure that no third country affects India-Russia relations, and increase bilateral trade to $100 billion by 2030.

But none of these are simple choices for New Delhi. In fact, before Putin’s arrival, India’s oil imports from Russia had already fallen.

Ajay Srivastava, president of Delhi-based think tank GTRI, says purchases have fallen in recent months. “Indian companies have already reduced crude oil imports from Russia. Official data shows that Russia’s total exports to India fell by 27.7% year-on-year to $4.8 billion in October 2025, from $6.7 billion last year to $4.8 billion. Since most of this is crude oil, the decline represents a decline in Russian oil purchases of more than 30%,” he said.

India is also wary of being seen as part of an openly anti-American bloc, which many analysts believe the China-Russia partnership represents.

What Does Putin’s Visit Look Like to the West?

India has remained outside fixed power blocs since the Second World War, first through non-alignment and now through what it calls strategic autonomy. External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar has repeatedly said that India will not compromise on this principle.

Still, strategic affairs expert Brahma Chellaney believes Putin’s trip is a message in the current global environment.

He wrote on

He said India was watching with increasing alarm as Western policy dragged Moscow into Beijing’s strategic embrace through unprecedented sanctions and weaponization of SWIFT and other financial instruments. But Putin’s first visit to India since the start of the Ukraine war shows that Russia still has options beyond China and will not allow itself to be reduced to Beijing’s “junior partner.”

“Meanwhile, India is sending a clear message to itself. At a time when the US under Trump is mistreating it (for example, US customs duties on India are now higher than on China), New Delhi will neither exclude Russia nor bow to Western sanctions that undermine its strategic autonomy. By hosting Putin, India makes it clear that it rejects the ‘with us or against us’ binary imposed by the West and will chart its own path.”

China’s Role in the Triangle

Just before the war against Ukraine, Russia and China issued a joint statement declaring that their partnership was “unlimited.” Analysts are debating whether this phrase still has the same meaning today.

Yun Sun, director of the China Program at the Stimson Center in Washington, told the Wall Street Journal that China’s support for Russia cannot be attributed solely to the invasion of Ukraine.

“Xi Jinping’s strengthening of ties with Russia cannot be entirely attributed to the Ukraine war. This kind of warmth could have emerged at any time,” he said.

The Chinese foreign ministry also put this in writing: Beijing and Moscow are strategic partners and their relations are non-aligned, non-confrontational and not directed at any third countries.