Russian hardliners mourn Orban’s electoral loss, Kremlin reaches out to his successor
By Andrew Osborn, Dmitry Antonov and Jan Lopatka
MOSCOW, April 13 (Reuters) – Russian hardliners seized on Viktor Orban’s defeat in Hungary as a serious blow that would unlock EU funds for Ukraine to fight another year against Russia, but the Kremlin downplayed the outcome, saying it was ready for talks with Orban’s successor.
Orban, Hungary’s veteran nationalist leader, who lost power after 16 years in office on Sunday to reinstate center-right rival Peter Magyar in nL1N40V01B, was a welcome guest in Moscow, where he met with President Vladimir Putin as recently as November.
Orban has ensured that Hungary continues to buy Russian oil and gas despite Moscow’s war in Ukraine https://www.reuters.com/world/ukraine-russia-war/, allowed Russia to begin work on building a new nuclear power plant south of Budapest, and has frequently spoken out against sanctions against Russia while openly opposing Kiev’s bid to join the 27-nation bloc.
He also blocked a 90 billion euro ($105 billion) EU loan to Ukraine after accusing Ukraine of sabotaging Russian oil shipments to his country by dragging its feet on repairs to a damaged pipeline, which Kiev has denied.
Magyar is more of an unknown quantity for Moscow. He has combined pro-EU and pro-NATO rhetoric with talks with Putin and a public acknowledgment that he will need to continue buying Russian oil and gas for now, despite rumors of diversification and review of contracts.
But the Kremlin has made clear that it is ready to quickly turn the page if that is the case. The organization, which did not mention Orban’s name, stated that it respected the choice of the Hungarian people and was ready to do business with Magyar.
“We look forward to continuing our highly pragmatic relationship with Hungary’s new leadership,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters.
Peskov said, “We noted Magyar’s statement about his desire to enter into dialogue. Naturally, this will be beneficial for both Moscow and Budapest.” he said.
Peskov later told state television that it was not yet clear what the new Hungarian leadership’s attitude would be, and that the Kremlin would not congratulate the Magyars on their victory, as Hungary was officially defined as an “unfriendly country”.
WILL EU FUNDS BE UNLOCKED?
But conservatives and war bloggers in Russia were almost unanimous that Orban’s defeat was bad news for Moscow.
Andrei Medvedev, a blogger and journalist with a wide follower base, said, “Orban’s defeat in the elections will have consequences for us in Russia. But this is very important.”
“Now… Ukraine will receive EU funds and with them the resources needed to wage war for at least a year. It goes without saying that the Ukrainian armed forces and numerous contractors will focus on further developing drone systems and missile capabilities,” he said.
Ramzai, another influential blogger, was equally gloomy.
“It is clear that Hungary will soon stop blocking the implementation of anti-Russian sanctions and billions of euros in EU support to Ukraine. Russia’s contracts for the completion of the Paks (II) nuclear power plant and the supply of gas and oil will also be questioned,” he said.
Oleg Ignatov, a senior analyst at the International Crisis Group think tank, said Hungary’s close ties with Russia were unlikely to disappear overnight, but would likely shrink to a strictly pragmatic dimension.
But he said ultimately future relations will be determined by how Magyar decides to handle the issue of Russian oil and gas supplies, which the EU wants to phase out as a bloc.
“If Hungary works with the rest of the EU to ensure that this (phasing out) happens, then Hungary’s role as a more Moscow-friendly outpost within the EU will really come to an end,” Ignatov said. he said.
“If it doesn’t, things get even more complicated.”
IS SLOVAKIA’S FICO A NEW ORGAN?
Orban’s loss was also a blow to his ally, Slovakian Prime Minister Robert Fico.
Fico has warm relations with Russia, is keen to buy Russian oil and gas, and has warned that Bratislava could block a 90 billion euro EU loan to Kiev if Budapest drops its own objections.
But diplomats, opposition politicians and analysts believe Fico, whose fractured ruling coalition is hung on by a slim parliamentary majority, may have difficulty reviving Orban’s role as the EU’s chief disruptor. Bratislava is said to be heavily dependent on EU funding.
Being half the size of Hungary also means it carries less political weight, said former Slovak foreign minister Miroslav Wlachovsky.
“I believe that Fico will no longer move further east. He will look for someone in Brussels who will not be completely isolated,” said an EU diplomat who declined to give his name due to the sensitivity of the issue.
Tomas Strazay, director of the Slovak Foreign Policy Association, said he believes Fico will continue his pro-Russian rhetoric and criticism of EU policies because that is what his voters want to hear. “Given its domestic position towards Russia, it will have to maneuver, and I believe that Russia’s interest in Slovakia will increase,” Strazay said. he said.
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(Reporting by Andrew Osborn and Dmitry Antonov in Moscow and Jan Lopatka in Prague; Writing by Andrew Osborn; Editing by Guy Faulconbridge, Gareth Jones and Andrew Heavens)
