Russia’s overwhelming manpower advantage against Ukraine is starting to wane

What would you do with an $80,000 bonus, more than four times the average annual salary? Or by canceling the $140,000 debt?

These are the questions men in Russia are being asked as the military advertises multimillion-ruble incentives to fight in Ukraine. Posted on roadside billboards and placed on young men’s social media feeds, the ads offer eye-watering sums of money, more than most people earn in years, along with promises of becoming a “hero” or quickly gaining Russian citizenship.

And yet military personnel recruitment 20% decrease It’s in the first quarter of this year compared to 2025, and there are signs that it still is. waveringAccording to Russian economic expert Janis Kluge.

The Kremlin’s strategy has long been to outlast Ukraine in an attritional war by taking advantage of Ukraine’s massive population and large military industry that can sustain a slow, crushing campaign. And now, as the Ukraine war enters its fifth year, President Vladimir Putin’s war chest is getting a much-needed boost, thanks to the escalation of the Iran war. oil prices.

Problem?

“Rubles don’t fight wars,” said Nigel Gould-Davies, senior fellow for Russia and Eurasia at the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS). He noted that this was the first war in Russian history where the state paid citizens to fight rather than forcing them, which led to economic tension and manpower problems.

“There are signs that this incentive may no longer be working effectively and that Russia is starting to lose more troops than it can muster,” Gould-Davies said in a recent statement. report.

Analysts say Moscow is resorting to increasingly desperate measures to shore up its forces, and Putin will likely have to make more unpopular decisions this year if he wants to continue his occupation of Ukraine.

After all, if a potential recruit was reluctant to take a hefty signing bonus last year, it’s unclear what would change their mind now, especially considering this. reports of maltreatment Soldiers who bribed their officers to avoid being sent to the front lines and certain-lethal ground missions.

Russia has already sent tens of thousands of former prisoners to the front lines, reinforced by three separate waves of North Korean soldiers, and encouraged immigrants to join its army. The government recently announced another recruitment drive, offering to pay up to $140,000 in debts for men who sign up and who might otherwise face penalties for defaulting.

The conflict’s depletion of fighting-age men also had consequences for the rest of the Russian economy, which now faces a wider labor crisis.

“The problem is not just finding people to go to the front line, they’re having a hard time finding people to hire,” Gould-Davies told CNN.

For the defense industry in particular, there are signs that factories are already operating at maximum capacity, operating 24 hours a day. This means it is difficult for Russia to further increase its military production as demand for factory workers puts even more pressure on the rest of the economy.

“The entire Russian economy is suffering from the most serious labor shortage in history.” Gould-Davies said.

According to some Western intelligence reports, approximately 500,000 Russian soldiers died in the war and hundreds of thousands more left the country to avoid conscription. The resulting labor shortage increases wages, another source of inflation in the country.

According to Gould-Davies, “Labor is a scarcer input than physical capital or finance. It is also more difficult to increase.” “It is possible to build a new factory or raise money with labor. However, the state cannot dictate the birth rate.”

Labor shortages could force the Kremlin to recruit more labor from India, North Korea and various African countries to ease pressure on both the civilian and military sectors.

More seriously, this could mean a second forced mobilization of troops, with measures such as restricting the freedom of citizens, especially men of military age, to leave the country. This is something Putin tried to avoid after the initial “partial mobilization” turned out to be widely unpopular and caused many Russians to emigrate.

“The Kremlin will soon face a fundamental choice whether to radically increase its demands on Russia’s economy and society or scale back its war aims,” Gould-Davies predicts.

War increases economic tension

Some experts, including Maria Snegovaya of the Center for Strategic and International Studies, think the Kremlin could solve its recruitment problems by putting more pressure on regions outside major cities like Moscow, forcing students to sign military contracts and recruiting more foreign nationals. Snegovaya said that the defense sector’s approach to maximum capacity also creates difficulties for Putin, but “it is not a disaster.”

But Snegovaya told CNN that economically “the challenge is becoming more and more visible.” “This year in particular, we are seeing economic costs finally imposing difficult trade-offs on the Kremlin.”

He noted that the “financial burden of sustaining the war effort” is increasing, given that Russia’s military personnel and recruitment costs amount to tens of billions of dollars each year, accounting for 9.5% of the total federal budget and 2% of the country’s GDP by some estimates.

Snegovaya said Russia is experiencing stagnating growth, or even stagnation according to some economists’ forecasts, as well as extreme business closures and declining consumer confidence.

Despite some increases in wages, incomes have not kept pace with persistent inflation. According to Russian state media TASS, the official annual inflation rate as of June is 5.52%. Ordinary Russian households face food prices rising by more than 18% compared to January 2024, sky-high electricity bills and a recent two-point increase in sales tax. Ukraine’s attacks on Russia’s critical infrastructure have also led to gasoline shortages in some regions and persistent airport delays.

Although the overall inflation rate has slowed again, Snegovaya said consumer sentiment remains negative on the issue.

“These trends could weaken support for the war and potentially increase social discontent,” Snegovaya said. “But the regime is strengthening its repressive apparatus.”

“The Kremlin tends to double down on its targets rather than scale them back,” the analyst warned.

Ukraine lags behind in innovation

Meanwhile, Ukraine’s advances in drone warfare and technology mean its military is inflicting far more casualties on Russia than in the early days of the war.

“Ukrainian forces are succeeding and ahead of innovation” on the battlefield, especially when it comes to the use of tactical drones, according to analyst Kateryna Stepanenko of the Washington-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

Earlier this year, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy claimed that his forces had captured a Russian position. using drones and robots only For the first time, it has carried out more than 22,000 unmanned ground missions using robots in just the first three months of 2026.

In May, Ukraine achieved a net territorial gain of nearly 100 square kilometers (39 square miles), the second month in a row. Russian forces suffered net lossesAccording to Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi.

Although estimates vary, Western officials put casualty rates in Russia at around 30,000 to 35,000 per month. Syrskyi claimed in May that Ukraine’s drone operators had killed or injured more soldiers than Russia could muster.

Experts say that while Ukraine’s war technology is improving, the Russian army, which sends many former prisoners and untrained soldiers to the front, is weakening.

Moscow’s efforts to recruit students for its own specialized drone units have faced mistrust and setbacks after the Russian Defense Ministry deployed some drone operators to front-line ground attacks, according to Stepanenko.

“This has created a not-so-helpful public relations campaign for the recruitment of unmanned system forces,” Stepanenko said.

CNN’s Anna Chernova contributed to this report.

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