Andy Burnham is Labour’s best hope of keeping Farage out of No10, according to UK’s top pollster
Britain’s leading pollster has warned Andy Burnham represents Labour’s best hope of keeping Nigel Farage out of the 10th place and suggested Sir Keir Starmer “doesn’t have the skills for Downing Street”.
Professor Sir John Curtice gave a scathing assessment, accusing the prime minister of lacking a vision for the country and saying he did not believe Sir Keir could “learn to be a politician” in the new year.
The Prime Minister insisted on Sunday he would remain in office next year and warned his rivals in the leadership that any move to oust him would be a “gift” to Mr Farage and Reform England.
But Sir John said Independent He believes only Mr Burnham, the mayor of Greater Manchester, has the support within the Labor Party and is appealing to the wider electorate to effectively replace the beleaguered prime minister, whose future looks increasingly uncertain.
But he said the road back to Westminster was “very difficult” for Mr Burnham because he would have to be elected as an MP.
“Andy Burnham is probably still the best bet, but there are a lot of obstacles in his way,” he said.
“If you look at his popularity inside and outside the Labor Party, his popularity is much higher than any other candidate.”
Although Mr Burnham has recently denied suggestions he plans to return to Westminster in the new year, a YouGov poll last month showed him a clear lead over former deputy prime minister Angela Rayner and health secretary Wes Streeting among candidates expected to replace Sir Keir.
There has been widespread speculation in recent weeks that both Ms Rayner and Mr Streeting were laying the groundwork for leadership bids, but Sir John was skeptical about their chances.
“Wes Streeting is not that popular in the party, although he has a good background, but he has the trouble of being health minister,” he said.
“Quite controversially, he has decided to reorganize the administrative delivery of healthcare in England in the middle of a crisis. I think it can be said that his ability to succeed as a minister has not yet been proven.”
But Sir John added: “He is undoubtedly a good communicator and certainly has a much better political sense than Starmer.”
Turning to Ms Rayner, who is a popular choice on the left of the party and has been tipped for a cabinet return, he raised questions about whether she would face similar problems to Sir Keir.
“Angela Rayner is clearly popular within her party but tends to be divisive among voters,” he warned.
“What we don’t know is, does he have a vision? He’s always been Starmer’s deputy and Starmer doesn’t have a vision.
“Can Rayner create a vision? But does he have the skills to fit No 10 Downing Street? We know Starmer doesn’t, but does he?”
Despite recent speculation that Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood is aiming for the top job, especially after she was described as “brilliant” and “impressive” by Sir Tony Blair, Sir John remained unconvinced she would be a strong contender for the top job.
“I mean, some sections of the Labor Party will be swallowing his social conservatism now as home secretary, but in terms of the leadership it’s different,” he said.
Noting that he had performed poorly in Labor List polls of party members, he added: “I think he’s clearly talented, but whether he can appeal to Labor voters is debatable.”
Sir John, who predicted further political turmoil in 2026, added: “I wouldn’t be surprised if there wasn’t at least one significant leadership change by this time next year.”
Both Sir Keir and Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch have fallen in popularity this year and the May election could be the final straw for disgruntled MPs hoping to retain their seats at the next general election.
He said: “The problem facing Labor is that they are losing votes to the Greens and Reform is squeezing the Conservative Party vote and taking some of Labor’s vote away and it is Reform that will benefit in terms of seats.”
The Independent sought comment from Mr Burnham.
