Sandy Alcantara home dominance gives edge to Miami Marlins for tonight’s betting card
We managed to escape with another win on the diamond yesterday. This wasn’t a walk in the park, but a win is a win. David Peterson allowed just one run and Trevor Rogers also allowed just one run, but he struck out in the sixth on a bomb hit by Seyia Suzuki. The Orioles won the game 3-2, and it’s the result that really matters. I’m hoping this game won’t be as tough as the one we played against the Guardians and Marlins.
The Cleveland Guardians are once again challenging for the American League Central Division championship. This isn’t that surprising. The surprise is they battle the White Sox. But that’s a different story for a different article. The Guardians are currently two games above .500 and always seem to find a way to get out of the postseason race. This team isn’t full of superstars or guys you might recognize, but it’s a team that gets the job done. They also always seem to get the most out of their pitching staff.
June 23, 2026; Chicago, Illinois, USA; Cleveland Guardians pitcher Parker Messick (77) throws a ball during the first inning against the Chicago White Sox at Rate Field. (Matt Marton)
Today’s starter for the Guardians is Parker Messick, one of the best pitchers this season. This year, Messick is 7-5 with a 2.80 ERA and 1.08 WHIP. He was better away than at home in terms of runs allowed but allowed seven of his nine scorers on the road. The worst month of the season was June, but it responded well when the calendar was switched to July. In his most recent start, he allowed just one earned run over five innings. He’s never faced the Marlins, so he could excel against them for the first time in the lineup.
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It was a dream season and he was running for the Miami Marlins. Even though it’s not finished yet, this “restructuring” team looks like it’s building or has built something special. Currently the team is 52-42 and has been over .500 at home for 14 straight games. Perhaps what should impress them most is that this team has only one player over the age of 30 outside of the pitching staff. Sometimes young talent comes into play and that seems to be what happens. They were 26-34 on May 1 and have been one of the hottest teams in baseball since going 26-8.
Miami Marlins pitcher Sandy Alcantara throws against the New York Mets in the first inning of a baseball game on Sunday, July 10, 2022, in New York. (AP Photo/Mary Altaffer)
There’s still a question mark over what the Marlins will do at the deadline. While they are unlikely to trade their position players, there is a huge market for today’s starter Sandy Alcantara that they cannot miss. He is 10-4 with a 4.00 ERA and 1.25 WHIP on the year. He was a better pitcher at home than away. He made nine home starts, where he allowed 21 earned runs. 13 of the 21 earned runs came in two games. That means he allowed eight earned runs in seven home starts. Only one of Guardian’s spikers faced Alcantara; Rhys Hoskins, who took 41 for 9 against him.
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The natural instinct of this game is to play from underneath. The Guardians aren’t usually a high-scoring team, but the Marlins can get some runs on the board. It would be surprising to see an overstrike, but with only seven in total there is little room for error. Personally, I don’t like betting on such things.
Miami Marlins starting pitcher Sandy Alcantara (22) thanks fans celebrating his 1,002 career home run during the game against the Texas Rangers at CreditDepot Park. June 23, 2026; Miami, Florida, USA; (Jim Rassol)
On the other hand, Alcantara is an elite team at home. Of course, Messick is good away and in general, but he is not at Alcantara’s level in home races. He’s been very dominant when you take away his two worst starts of the season at home. He has allowed 2 or fewer earned runs at home roughly 78% of the time this season. It is -140 for allowing two or fewer earned runs in the game. I like this bet, but I also like the Marlins to win, so I’ll take both.
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