Sandy Alcantara’s dominant stretch makes the Marlins a smart moneyline bet against the Rockies

Baseball is one of those sports where anything can happen. A bad team can beat a strong team any day. I advocate that bettors always be extremely careful when playing with big favorites. Just because a Cy Young winner is on the mound doesn’t mean we should automatically bet on him. Obviously, it gives you a better chance of winning, but it doesn’t guarantee anything. I think we have a great opportunity today with the Miami Marlins playing the Colorado Rockies.

The Marlins are doing a solid job of keeping everything going this season. Even though the team is in the top market in terms of desirability, it tends to avoid paying players. They are constantly renewing themselves and don’t really want to invest in players. That doesn’t mean they don’t have any talent on the roster. In fact, the situation is exactly the opposite. They have a lot of good young talent and when things go well they could make big strides towards the end of the season. They are 44-40 on the season overall, but need to learn how to win on the road at 16-23 this season.

It will be interesting to see if the team keeps their players at the deadline, considering they are hitting above .500. Sandy Alcantara will come out on top tonight and the Marlins will be left hanging in the trade talks no matter how good they are. They don’t want to pay him and he will look for a good contract. He is 8-4 on the season with a 4.01 ERA and 1.24 WHIP. These aren’t his Cy Young numbers, but they’re good enough. He also showed flashes of his dominant form. He has made five consecutive quality starts for the Marlins, and his first start this season was a seven-inning, four-hit unearned run performance against the Rockies.

The Rockies are in the midst of another losing season. Few clubs are in worse shape than the Rockies and Los Angeles Angels. At 33-51, they are almost 20 games under .500, but they have been surprisingly good at home this year. In Colorado, they are 18-22 year-round. I’m interested to see how they do at the trade deadline because there aren’t a lot of guys you want to go after and a lot of them are thought to have inflated numbers from playing at Coors Field. His pitching continues to be a problem, and the team’s ERA is 5.47.

Miami Marlins starting pitcher Sandy Alcantara walks to the dugout before a baseball game against the Cincinnati Reds on April 7, 2026 in Miami. (Lynne Sladky/AP)

Tonight the team returns Sean Sullivan, who is 0-2 with an 8.25 ERA in three starts. The first wasn’t bad, as he struck out three against the Athletics and allowed just two hits. He then allowed eight runs to the Chicago Cubs in four innings. His third start was against the Boston Red Sox, and it was the first start of his career in Colorado. He struck out five, allowing three earned runs on five hits and five walks. It probably should have been a worse start for him.

Total is something I have mixed feelings about. 11.5 is a reasonable number but I think it could be difficult either way. Sullivan will give up some runs but you don’t know if it’s going to be three or ten. I think Alcantara will only allow a few runs.

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Jake McCarthy of the Colorado Rockies walks back to the dugout after hitting a leadoff homer off Paul Skenes of the Pittsburgh Pirates in the first inning of a baseball game on June 20, 2026 in Denver. (David Zalubowski/AP)

I think the best play is to take on the Marlins on the moneyline. When we look at the team, we see that they are in solid form at the moment, having won four of the last five matches. If it goes much above the -140 I got, I recommend not playing. We can’t get the best number anymore so be careful. I also like Alcantara at -116 on 5+ hits.

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