Saudi Arabia could be seven days away from chaos if Iran’s water war hits home
David Rundell
London/Dubai: In the arid heartland of the Arabian Peninsula, where scorching temperatures and negligible rainfall define the landscape, water is not just a resource; It is the cornerstone of survival.
The six member states of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) (Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar and Oman) rely heavily on desalination plants to quench their thirst. These facilities, which transform seawater into drinkable resources, provide most of the drinking water to populations that are ballooning amid the prosperity brought by oil.
But as the conflict with Iran escalates, this infrastructure emerges as a glaring strategic vulnerabilityPotentially more important than the region’s oil and gas fields, refineries and export terminals.
Iran’s ability to strike the Gulf Cooperation Council’s desalination plants with missiles, drones, swarms of small boats or cyberattacks poses an existential threat to these six Arab countries. Unlike the Gulf Cooperation Council countries, Iran gets most of its water from rivers, reservoirs and groundwater; desalination accounts for about 2 percent of its supply.
While Tehran can withstand disruptions in its limited desalination operations, Gulf Cooperation Council countries could face rapid social collapse without them. Recent events, including alleged strikes against factories in Bahrain and Iran’s Qeshm IslandHe underlines that water, not oil, may become the decisive battlefield in a long-term conflict in the Gulf.
The Gulf Cooperation Council’s dependence on desalination is deep and reflects each country’s geography and development trajectory. Saudi Arabia, the regional powerhouse, gets about 70 percent of its drinking water from desalinated sources. In some cities, this rate approaches 90 percent.
The UAE, including the glitzy metropolitan areas of Dubai and Abu Dhabi, relies on desalination for about 42 percent of its drinking water. Surrounded by deserts and lacking significant amounts of natural fresh water, Kuwait relies on 90 percent of these plants.
Bahrain, the smallest Gulf Cooperation Council member, is about 60 percent reliant on desalination, although some estimates put that rate as high as 95 percent in urban areas.
Qatar, which hosts very large liquefied natural gas operations, has a share between 75 and 90 percent; This actually comes close to full dependency in practice. Oman, with its rugged terrain, obtains approximately 86 percent of its water from desalination. The Gulf Cooperation Council collectively produces 40 percent of the world’s desalinated water and operates more than 400 facilities that turn the salty Persian Gulf into a lifeline.
This vulnerability stems from decades of rapid urbanization and industrial growth fueled by hydrocarbon wealth but constrained by nature’s parsimony. Groundwater reserves, which once served as buffers, are being depleted at alarming rates due to overproduction and climate change.
Desalination has filled the gap, but it comes at a price: Plants are energy-hungry giants and are inextricably linked to the oil and gas sector. In the Gulf, many facilities that use steam from the combustion of fossil fuels for dual-purpose operations are co-located with power plants. Saudi Arabia alone consumes about 300,000 barrels of oil per day to power desalination efforts.
Technologies such as multistage flash distillation and reverse osmosis dominate; The first relies on thermal energy from gas-fired plants. This interdependence means that disruptions to energy infrastructure, currently targeted in regional conflicts, can lead to water shortages.
In fact, the Gulf’s economic miracle rests on this fragile bond: Oil funds desalination plants, gas powers them, and the resulting water supply feeds the workforce that extracts both.
Saudi Arabia is an example of this situation. As the world’s largest producer of desalinated water, it produces approximately 11.5 million cubic meters per day, or more than 4 billion cubic meters per year. But without this capacity, the kingdom’s resilience is dangerously weak.
Water emergency could trigger evacuation
Reserves and pipelines offer insufficient buffers; In 2008, the US diplomatic assessment warned that if the Jubail facility, which provides the lion’s share of the capital’s water, was damaged, Riyadh, home to millions, would have to be evacuated within a week.
Broader estimates suggest that the entire country could survive on stored supplies for only seven to 14 days before chaos ensued. To make up for the lost desalination output, Saudi Arabia would need to import staggering amounts of water: roughly 11.5 million cubic meters per day, or 4 billion cubic meters per year, assuming full replacement of drinking and municipal needs.
Supplying these quantities from unaffected allies via tankers or emergency pipelines would strain global logistics, escalate costs into the billions and lead to the potential for a humanitarian crisis.
Iran’s strategic advantage lies in its diversified water portfolio. Tehran relies on surface water and groundwater for much of its supply, although it faces its own shortages due to drought and mismanagement; desalination plays a marginal role. This allows it to target Gulf Cooperation Council facilities with relative impunity, knowing that long-term water shortages could drain cities and destabilize Gulf Cooperation Council regimes, while any retaliation would cause minimal harm.
Mitigation efforts continue: Gulf Cooperation Council countries are seeking to diversify their water sources with solar-powered plants and wastewater recycling, while investing in strategic storage reservoirs. Saudi Arabia’s national water strategy aims to increase wastewater reuse and reduce per capita consumption. But these efforts still have a long way to go and cannot reduce the vulnerability of the Saudis and their neighbors in the current war.
Water has been used as a weapon many times in the past. After Iraq invaded Kuwait in 1990 Filled the Gulf with Kuwaiti oil Creating the largest oil slick in history, more than 10 times larger than the Exxon Valdez spill. The aim was to clog and shut down Saudi desalination plants.
Only the rapid intervention of Saudi environmental authorities and the US Coast Guard prevented the disaster. As the missiles fly, Gulf leaders must once again face a sobering truth: In an arid battlefield, scarcity of water can be a deadlier risk than abundance of oil.
David Rundell served as an American diplomat for 30 years. He is a former chief of mission at the American embassy in Saudi Arabia. Additional contributions from Michael Gfoeller, former U.S. diplomat and political advisor to U.S. Central Command.
Telegraph, London
Take notes directly from our foreign country reporters about things that make headlines around the world. Sign up for our weekly What’s on in the World Newsletter.
