Dilmi happy to play the long game with promising filly
Ray Hickson
The bar will be raised on promising filly Probability Theory in the coming months, but trainer Nacim Dilmi is content to set the bar low once again in the Midway Handicap (1300m) at Kensington on Monday.
Dilmi has a long-term plan to take the three-year-old to the Group 1 Queensland Oaks and said there was plenty of room for her decision to skip the 1400m second run on the course to run shorter than 100m with less company.
Probability Theory was given a risk rating in his first preparation, finishing fifth behind Green Spaces in the Spring Stakes and was very good on the restart over 1200m at Gosford despite clearly wanting more.
“It was a convincing win; she is a mare who wants more, we knew that too, so it was very good to do it over that distance,” Dilmi said.
“I know 1400m [on Saturday] It would probably have been the right move for him but I thought the 1300m race would suit him better, on a bigger track than Gosford.
“I’d like to give him another good run and every chance to win again. After that we can take him over the distance again.”
The Domeland trainer said Probability Theory was designed to go the distance on the jump-off side, so he was more than happy to set the Queensland Oaks as his target.
What he wants to see from Kensington before he goes away is to fine-tune his racing car because he has no doubts about his talent or potential.
“He’s still doing a few things wrong, he’s got a lot to learn and he’s not completely screwed yet,” he said.
“He changed legs a few times on the straight at Gosford for more experience but it will be more beneficial for him to gain experience in an easier race.”
“He’s a humble horse and he only shows up on race day.”
Rachel King rode the mare for her first win and Dilmi is pleased she wants to continue the ride.
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