Seattle Mariners picked to beat Athletics behind Logan Gilbert’s dominant road numbers this season

I won’t waste too many words on this topic, but I want to share a short game that has nothing to do with this article. The Colorado Rockies are +330 tonight, while the Los Angeles Dodgers are -440. I’ll take a shot at the Rockies; Not a full unit, just some fallout.

The Dodgers shouldn’t rush into a negotiation, which is the natural instinct of big favorites. Too often in baseball these big dogs make money and I pick those spots every season. I’ll be staying on the West Coast for the game between the Seattle Mariners and Athletics.

The Mariners are underperforming. In about a third of their games this season, the Mariners haven’t been where people expected them to be. Maybe they’re OK where they are right now, considering no one is overperforming in their division.

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They’re probably in the easiest league this season, so they can get hot and win with relative ease. The Mariners have 27-29 year olds and 13-14 year olds on the way this year.

So what’s bothering the Marines? They are one of the worst hitting teams in baseball, batting .228. I think this will eventually improve, but for now they are struggling. Their team ERA keeps them afloat at 3.58, and a strong 1.22 WHIP helps that as well.

Logan Gilbert wasn’t exactly a lock, going 2-4 with a 4.04 ERA and 1.11 WHIP. But he had a stellar performance on the road with a 1.19 ERA. He actually allowed just three earned runs in four road starts. He has faced the Athletics once this season, allowing three earned runs on four innings. Overall, the Athletics are 20-for-108 against him in innings.

Seattle Mariners’ Julio Rodriguez reacts at third base after advancing on a pickoff attempt on an error in the seventh inning against the Houston Astros on August 18, 2023 at Minute Maid Park in Houston, Texas. (Logan Riely/MLB Photos via Getty Images)

Athletics is where we should expect them. Is it competitive? Yes. Are they ready for a postseason run? Probably not. They are 27-28 years old and, as we mentioned, they are in a league that no one wants to win.

I’ve mentioned this before, but Athletics is on a good track. Most of their timeline seems to align with when they have a permanent home in Las Vegas, so it will be interesting to see what they do now as we head into trade season.

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At some point the pitch team will need to be addressed. As a team, they have a 4.33 ERA and 1.41 WHIP, which means there is a lot of traffic on the bases.

Today they are sending out Jeffrey Springs, who has a 3-5 record, 4.11 ERA, and 1.17 WHIP. He was in worse shape on home tires this season than at the away start. His home ERA is on the rise. The Athletics have also lost four straight Spring starts. He hasn’t faced the Mariners this season, but he’s generally performed well against them, holding them to a .197 average in 71 at-bats.

Athletics pitcher Jeffrey Springs throws a pitch during the second inning against the San Diego Padres at Petco Park in San Diego, California on May 22, 2026. (Denis Poroy/Imagn Images)

Neither the Mariners or Athletics have very good numbers against opposing starters, which makes me think the advantage here is five-under-under. I think both starters should be able to keep the opposition’s sticks at bay. I’ll take 4.5 to five innings.

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I will also back the Mariners to win this game at -130. They took the first two games of the series and the Athletics are in poor shape at home. I also think Seattle has a better starter, and Gilbert has been great on the road this season.

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