Separatists in Canada could boost Donald Trump’s quest for dominance
Seal of Thomas And Derek Decloet
For months, many Canadians had hoped that Donald Trump had lost interest in making their country the 51st U.S. state; his plate was full of disrupting Washington and the global trading system.
These hopes are fading.
The shocking capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and Trump’s impassioned talk of seizing Greenland has shaken Canada and forced citizens to take seriously the US president’s past threats to Canadian sovereignty.
The administration’s “THIS IS OUR HEMISPHERE” statement makes Trump’s previous comments about annexing Canada seem less like insults against former prime minister Justin Trudeau or negotiating tactics in the trade war with current leader Mark Carney.
blunt Column in Canada’s largest national newspaper A warning that Trump might use “military pressure” against the country went viral last week. Authors’ advice: Learn from Finland’s defense against Russia. Expand the civil defense force. Create a national drone strategy inspired by the Ukrainian example. And think the unthinkable.
“It’s all about changing the calculus,” said Thomas Homer-Dixon, one of the authors and a Canadian academic who studies global security. “It should be clear that if an attempt was made to resort to military pressure against us, the costs would be very high.”
Horror even inspired its own black comedy. A widely shared story Beavera similar satire website Onionmade the following headline: “Mark Carney is shutting down geolocation “On the phone just in case.”
While Trump’s actions have disheartened leaders around the world, Canadians have particular reason to worry. After all, Trump and his advisers are trying to seize control of a democratic, strategically located region in the Arctic and part of NATO, including Greenland, even increasing the possibility of military action. Canada is all of these.
“I think a lot of officials in Ottawa have a hard time believing that we’re in this area, regardless of the evidence,” said Wesley Wark, a former adviser to the Canadian government on security and border issues. He called Trump’s moves on Venezuela and Greenland “the latest wake-up calls for Canada that will underscore the fact that the United States is not the country it used to be.”
What Canada can do to deter Trump is less clear.
Carney won office last year by promising to stand up to Trump, saying the president “wants to break us so America can have us.” But since the election, he has refrained from antagonizing his U.S. counterpart even as he seeks to increase trade with China and other countries to reduce Canada’s dependence on its southern neighbor. Carney last week called on the United States to respect the sovereignty of Greenland and Denmark, of which the island is also a territory, without mentioning Trump’s past threats against Canada.
Most analysts doubt that the US military will invade Canada. “I believe this is still in the realm of science fiction,” said Stephanie Carvin, an associate professor at Carleton University in Ottawa and a former national security analyst for the Canadian government. “But I believe now more than ever that the United States is willing to cripple the Canadian economy to suit the whims of the president.”
‘Are we already a vassal state and we don’t admit it to ourselves?’
Associate Professor Philippe Lagasse
He thinks he is encouraged by developments in Venezuela, with Trump claiming control over the country’s huge oil reserves. “The president will now be much more willing to engage in adventurism in his quest to dominate the western hemisphere,” he said.
Philippe Lagasse, an associate professor at Carleton who specializes in defense policy, said a plausible scenario could involve a problem Canada cannot deal with on its own, such as a major natural disaster or an attack on U.S. electricity supplies. “The United States, at least under this administration, will handle this issue for you and may not choose to leave. Or it may choose to make demands on you,” he said. “What can Canada do to prevent the possibility of the United States claiming that it must intervene in Canada for its own security?”
The Canadian military is not designed for a more hostile world. Its regular and primary reserve forces total less than 100,000 men and defend the second largest landmass on Earth. Natural disasters and other missions, such as the NATO mission where Canadian troops are deployed to Latvia, strain their resources.
Carney’s government is increasing soldiers’ salaries to help recruit troops and allocate tens of billions of dollars for new fighter jets, submarines and other equipment; all of which will eventually help Canada reach the minimum NATO spending level of 2 percent of gross domestic product. There is also an emerging plan in Canadian media to create 100,000 reservists and 300,000 reservists. But many of these steps will take years.
Then there is the possibility of the United States intervening in Canadian politics.
The oil-rich province of Alberta, which has long suffered under Ottawa’s control, may be heading toward an independence referendum, with several “Maple MAGAs” hoping to not only secede from Canada but eventually join the United States. Separatist organizer Jeffrey Rath said he met with US State Department officials three times and they supported his cause. He declined to name the officials and the State Department declined to comment.
Early polls show separatists in Alberta likely to lose. But according to Homer-Dixon and his colleague Adam Gordon, a former legal advisor to Canada’s foreign affairs department, the referendum opens the door to the risk of foreign intervention. They set up a scenario in which “grey MAGA money” and disinformation campaigns were used to aid the separatist cause, or perhaps sow distrust in the results if the independence push failed. They say Canadians should consider what it would mean if the United States decides to send troops to northern Montana after the vote in Alberta.
Trump’s attention is elsewhere now, but he will return to Canada. Countries are beginning a planned review of the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement, the trade deal signed by Trump during his first term. It has the potential to become a forum for airing all of Washington’s grievances against Ottawa – its small military presence in the far north, its approach to sectors like agriculture – and Trump’s negotiating style of wielding maximum influence against smaller trading partners.
The current deal means about 85 percent of Canada-U.S. trade is now duty-free, exempt from the 35 percent import tax Trump has imposed on other Canadian goods. But this blessing is also the sword of Damocles for Canada; Because Trump only needs to threaten to revoke the exemption or blow up the trade deal to wreak havoc.
The business community overwhelmingly says ending the trade deal would hurt the U.S. economy. But in the short term, this would be disastrous for Canada, which sends almost 70 percent of its exports south across the border.
‘The President will now be much more willing to engage in adventurism in his quest to dominate the western hemisphere.’
Associate Professor Stephanie Carvin on the possibility of a US invasion
To reduce this dependence, Carney in October set a public goal of doubling Canada’s exports to other countries over the next decade. Creating this economic counterweight means quick diplomatic turnarounds. Despite calling China the biggest security threat to his country last April, Carney this week will become the first Canadian leader in almost a decade to visit the Asian giant after years of frosty relations.
Since becoming prime minister, Carney has worked to improve Canada’s relations with Trump, which had become toxic under Trudeau. It removed some of its predecessor’s counter tariffs and the digital services tax. The increase in defense spending also addresses one of Trump’s key complaints about America’s NATO partners.
However, none of these concessions led to a softening of tariffs. They also run the risk of continued erosion of Canada’s sovereignty, analysts say.
“Are we already a vassal state and we don’t admit it to ourselves?” Lagasse said. “I begin to worry that at some point, the more you compromise to maintain your access to the market, the more you are willing to give up to avoid being further threatened, that you will end up with a situation where you are essentially paying extortion.”
Bloomberg
Take notes directly from our foreign country reporters about things that make headlines around the world. Sign up for our weekly What’s on in the World Newsletter.
