SIR hits TMC’s core turf in Bengal; party banks on turnout surge, women and minority consolidation
The electoral roll revision had its deepest impact in North 24 Parganas, South 24 Parganas, Murshidabad, Malda, North Dinajpur and South Dinajpur; these are the six districts with a total of more than 100 assembly seats, including 64 in just two 24 Parganas, which are considered the electoral backbone of any winning coalition in Bengal.
These districts have also been central to TMC’s dominance since 2011, with the party sweeping all six districts in the 2021 assembly polls.
Murshidabad alone has more than 11 lakh voters; the highest rate in this state, followed by Malda with around 8.3 lakh. While around 5.9 lakh voters are under scrutiny in the politically important North 24 Parganas, there are around 5.2 lakh such voters in South 24 Parganas. These districts also witnessed write-offs of around 23 lakh.
“Control of North and South 24 Parganas usually determines who will rule Bengal. If the party’s vote share in these five districts falls sharply, it could be a challenge for us. We know how to turn this challenge into victory,” said a TMC leader.
The Special Intensive Revision exercise resulted in 63.66 lakh deletions, which is around 8.3 per cent of the electorate, reducing the voter base from 7.66 crore before the revision to around 7.04 crore now. Another 60.06 lakh voters remain under judgment awaiting verification of documents.
Post-SIR records show that around 1.23 crore voters, roughly one in six voters, are either wiped out or under judgment. Data compiled from West Bengal’s 294 assembly constituencies shows that the number of voters affected by SIR, deletions and canvassed voters exceeded the 2024 Lok Sabha winning margin in over 200 segments; This suggests that the practice could potentially reshape the state’s electoral equations ahead of April’s polls.
In at least 120 assembly segments, the number of deleted voters is higher than the 2024 Lok Sabha winning margin in these constituencies alone. The scale of the deletions also exceeded the slim victory margins of the 2021 assembly polls in at least 40 seats; majority of which were won by the BJP and the rest by the TMC.
In the last assembly elections, TMC won at least 45 seats with a margin of less than 10,000 votes, while the BJP secured around 20 constituencies with a similar margin; This underscored how relatively small changes in votes can affect outcomes in many closely contested segments.
According to TMC sources and researchers, in 41 constituencies where the minority population exceeded 50 per cent, expungement rates were lower at 5.61 per cent, but the share of voters under provision rose to over 21 per cent of the electorate.
In the 2024 Lok Sabha segment, TMC was ahead in 29 of these seats, Congress-Left alliance in 11 and BJP in only one.
The BJP envisions the SIR study as a long overdue effort to clean up voter registration and identify illegal immigrants, especially from Bangladesh. However, the TMC argues that the process disproportionately affects districts where the party performed strongly in previous elections.
TMC leader Abhishek Banerjee claimed that the scale of the deletions reflected previous claims by BJP leaders that more than 1.2 crore names would be removed, suggesting that the practice was “politically motivated and predetermined”.
Political analyst Suman Bhattacharya said the statistical implications of voter deletions are complex. “If deletions occur proportionally, the party with a greater vote share in a constituency may actually lose numerically more voters. The TMC may try to turn the debate into an emotional advantage.”
TMC’s state vice president Jaiprakash Majumdar said the target will be to increase voter turnout and sector-wise voting.
“If turnout increases and women and Muslim voters vote along with young people in large numbers, the impact of deletions can be offset. Our aim is sector-wise voting, while the BJP wants voting on religious lines,” he said.
The party is also trying to frame the issue as one of identity and citizenship, arguing that many voters are harassed by repeated document verification and hearings.
Some strategists believe this sentiment could lead to “revenge voting” if a significant portion of voters whose names were initially deleted are later reinstated.
Researcher Sabir Ahamed said the debate could also trigger stronger minority consolidation behind the TMC.
“The problem goes beyond party politics when voters feel that their citizenship is being questioned. If this feeling grows, the consolidation of minority voters behind the TMC may intensify even if there is resentment among a section, and initially they were looking for other options like Humayun Kabir,” he said.
The TMC is also recalibrating its outreach in other parts where the SIR exercise has sparked outrage, including the Matua-dominated belts in North 24 Parganas, where sections of the electorate have complained of large-scale deletions.
Senior leaders said the campaign would increasingly emphasize “Bengali pride” and regional identity and portray SIR as an attempt to undermine Bengal voters.
