Spending cuts loom if Drakeford budget falls in Senedd

Finance Minister Mark Drakeford faces the threat of major cuts to public services if he cannot persuade political opponents to support the budget he starts publishing on Tuesday.

Worth more than £27bn, the Welsh government’s spending plans for next year cover a range of services from hospitals to rubbish collection.

The Senedd needs to vote in favor to approve it, but the Labor government does not have enough members to get those votes without other parties.

Welsh Conservative leader Darren Millar said a budget deal “could be possible” if the government considered policies such as the removal of Welsh stamp duty on primary residential properties.

“We want to see change in the Welsh government’s budget and so if they are prepared to have the conversation about stamp duty removal we are prepared to sit down with them and explore whether a deal is possible,” he told BBC Radio Wales Breakfast.

An upcoming by-election It could make the political arithmetic even more difficult.

This budget will be taken over by the winner of next year’s Senedd elections.

drakeford said Doesn’t want to tie the hands of the next Welsh government.

He has promised a budget that will minimize political bickering, but negotiations with other parties are inevitable.

First Minister Eluned Morgan has said she expects the budget that will finally pass the Senedd in the spring to be very different from the first draft on Tuesday.

On Tuesday, Drakeford will allocate money to government departments for 2026-27.

A detailed breakdown with spreadsheets showing funding for public services will be published on November 3.

This will be followed by weeks of lobbying and scrutiny, during which Chancellor Rachel Reeves will release her budget. Most of the Welsh government’s funding comes from it.

A vote on The final budget will be announced on January 27.

If the budget fails to pass in April, the start of the fiscal year, the government is only allowed to spend 75% of last year’s budget.

This will require major cuts, with Morgan warning of “massive layoffs”.

If the budget is still not passed by the end of July, the spending limit increases to 95%.

A government can hold a budget vote during the fiscal year, so it can try again after April 1.

The Welsh Conservatives said Drakeford should publish a budget that “will benefit taxpayers”.

The party announced last week it would abolish land transaction tax, the Welsh version of stamp duty.

Plaid Cymru leader Rhun ap Iorwerth has not closed the door on talks with the government but says “this is Labour’s budget”.

“I don’t think anyone wants to be in a situation where there is no budget for next year,” he said.

Dodds’ spokesman said he understood what was at stake for utilities.

“This means Jane is prepared to listen to and work with other parties, something neither the Conservatives nor Plaid Cymru were willing to do in the last budget,” they said.

Reform, which has a Member State following the departure of Laura Ann Jones, has said it will not support a budget that continues to fund Nation of Sanctuary policy.

Here is the full list of candidates for the Caerphilly by-election:

• Liberal Democrats: Steve Aicheler
• Gulen: Anthony Cook
• Greens: Gareth Hughes
• Conservatives: Gareth Potter
• Reformation: Llyr Powell
• UKIP: Roger Quilliam
• Labour: Richard Tunnicliffe
• Plaid Cymru: Lindsay Whittle

You can learn more about Candidates here.

BBC Wales is holding a live debate for Caerphilly by-election candidates on 15 October. Click below to apply to be in the audience.