Tory patience wears thin as Badenoch’s critics count down to May elections | Conservatives

A.The good and the good of what’s left of the Conservative party made their mark in the Spectator’s parliamentary awards of the year at a glitzy, glitzy and glitzy event held at the Raffles Hotel in Whitehall this week.

Given that the magazine’s editorial line still consisted of supporting the Conservative Party, despite the party facing an existential crisis from Reformation UK, it was no surprise that much of the gossip at the champagne-filled event was about whether Kemi Badenoch’s job was at risk.

James Cleverly, who ran unsuccessfully against her for the leadership, was unable to counter the naked ambition from the stage of shadow cabinet colleague Robert Jenrick, Badenoch’s biggest threat.

“Am I after his business? Will I stick the knife between his shoulder blades and steal the crown? No, of course not,” the senior Tory cabinet minister told a laughing audience as he opened the awards ceremony.

“You know I’m not like that. Did I get a fancy new haircut and lose a lot of puppy fat? No. Did I stop saying ‘asor’ and start saying ‘ask’? Am I making viral vigilante videos? If I were, maybe you’d suspect me of maneuvering.”

Jenrick, who finished second to Badenoch last year and made a worrying move to the right to beat Nigel Farage, at least managed a chuckle. His own maneuvers were anything but subtle.

Earlier this year, one of the Conservative Party leader’s disgruntled supporters set up a countdown clock on social media for the days remaining until Conservative rules would allow challengers to challenge. This clock reaches zero on Sunday.

At this point, critics of the Conservative Party leader will be able to send letters to trigger a contest. Last year the rules were changed to increase the threshold; This means 30% of the party’s 119 MPs are now needed, up from 15%, creating a higher bar for those trying to oust him.

But will possible rivals (most notably Jenrick) be able to convince the 36 MPs needed to start the process? Conservative Party insiders show the number of people who nominated him in the leadership contest: 28 in the first round. “This is your starting point,” they said.

There are plenty of Conservative MPs willing to share their disappointment with Badenoch: his style, his political judgment, his ability to stand out. But for the most part, they are wary of committing a new act of political murder in such a short time.

Some Conservative MPs also believe his performance at the autumn party conference announcing a policy to abolish stamp duty on main houses gave him a few months’ breathing room.

“We may not be happy with Kemi’s leadership, but we will be very careful about getting rid of him. The public already thinks we are fighting like rats in a sack. We don’t need to give them any more evidence of that,” said one MP.

This doesn’t mean the conspiracy isn’t ongoing. One of the shadow cabinet ministers said: “Kemi has until May. Local elections will be a disaster for us. Before that, no one will want to take over and will have to own the result. But after that, we will need someone to take us in a new direction.”

If May abolishes the Tory council, MPs will begin to feel uneasy about their own prospects. Conservative peer and pollster Robert Hayward said “there’s no doubt the old parties are fearful of next May” and said the Conservatives were still “undervalued” in many council by-elections despite appearing to hold a few more seats than before in the last few weeks.

Polls show Badenoch made little progress with public opinion last year and his personal ratings have fallen. With a score of -22, he is less popular than Jenrick (-16) and Mel Stride (-21), according to Ipsos Mori.

Interviewer’s latest status positivity score -28 points for conservatives; 22% are in favor of them and 50% are unfavorable.

Data from YouGov also shows that Badenoch has convinced just 12% of Britons that he is prime minister. But the picture is better among Conservative voters; While 54 percent say he has done a good job as party leader, only 30 percent say he should not lead the party in the next general election.

But while Tory supporters remain undecided, there appears to be a consensus among MPs that Badenoch will not lead the party at the next election.

The main disagreement is whether it would be better to replace him in May and have a chance of stalling Reform’s momentum, or leave it until closer to the general election, when Farage might implode and voters might be more willing to listen to the Tories again.

It’s no secret that Jenrick thinks he’s the man for the job. But his allies say he has no plans to act now and are among those who think they should wait until May.

They also think he is the only one who can get support from Reform UK because he “radicalized” on immigration during his time at the Home Office. His team is conducting research on Farage’s weaknesses and what might persuade different voting blocs to return to the Conservative Party.

But controversially for many Tories, Jenrick is among those who believe some sort of deal should be struck with Reform UK to avoid electoral oblivion. “We’re not sure what that looks like because Reform wouldn’t want to talk about it publicly, but they might need our experience,” one Ally said.

There is also a theory that the party’s potential savior could be someone lower-profile (shadow climate minister Claire Coutinho is mentioned) or a member of the new line-up with less obvious links to the party’s time in power.

Cleverly, who came third in last year’s competition, has also been cited as a potentially unifying figure and is keeping her powder dry. His allies say he sees no alternative but to retain Badenoch as leader, as anyone who takes over now will inherit an even more difficult situation.

However, if a contest were to be triggered there would undoubtedly be those urging Cleverly to stand up and he might be persuaded to give it another shot. A small group of centrist MPs are already preparing a rearguard action to prevent Jenrick from becoming leader in a possible contest.

A well-connected Tory warned that “the energy is all to the right” within and outside the Conservative Party, citing the likes of Jenrick, Neil O’Brien, Katie Lam and Nick Timothy. “This is a chance for James” [Cleverly] because he has reputation and relationship with the members and some of them want to stop Robert at any cost.”

“A lot of people’s thoughts are that a deal or coalition with Reform is needed at some stage. During the votes on decriminalizing assisted suicide and abortion, there was a statement that ‘we should kick people out of the party who voted for the party’ and Reform’s specific message was ‘there are some Liberal Democrats you need to get rid of’. That tips things a bit in Robert’s favour.”

But another added: “Jenrick winning is not a foregone conclusion. We could have a strong contest between Jenrick and someone else – Smart, Stride. The idea that the right-wing candidate always wins the seat is not always valid.”