Starmer will be forced out of No 10 – it’s just a matter of when and how, top pollster warns

The question of Sir Keir Starmer resigning as prime minister is “not a matter of when or if”, one of Britain’s leading pollsters has said, as Labor braces for devastating results in local elections.

Sir John Curtice said the prime minister could hold on as there was no clear successor to take over after the results, while arguing that the chances of Sir Keir leading Labor at the next election were “really very low”.

It follows a devastating new assessment in which pollster Lord Hayward warned Labor faces a “serious” loss of more than 75 per cent of the council seats it defends across England next week.

He predicted Labor would lose 1,850 seats, while Nigel Farage’s Reform England party would be the biggest winner, gaining 1,550 seats, and the Greens would gain 500 seats.

Thursday’s election is expected to be a moment of grave danger for the Prime Minister, who faces growing calls to resign over his handling of the Peter Mandelson scandal.

Meanwhile, Labor MPs are said to be increasingly frustrated with the chaos in government; Some are looking at Wes Streeting or Angela Rayner as possible successors to Sir Keir if next week’s results are as grim as expected for the government.

Sir John said Independent He says there is no guarantee Sir Keir will be forced to resign immediately after the local election as the party has “no clear successor”.

But he added: “Frankly, Starmer is still very unlikely to lead Labor at the next election. It’s a matter of when and how, not if.”

He said the upcoming local elections “risk being the worst ever for both Labor and the Conservatives” and argued that Labor was likely to lose seats to Reform in “predominantly pro-Leave areas” such as the North of England.

But he said he thought Reform might not fare as well as it did two months ago, partly because the economy has overtaken immigration as voters’ top concern, the negative impact of Mr Farage’s close ties to Donald Trump and the right-wing Restore Britain party eating into some of Reform’s vote share.

Meanwhile, Keiran Pedley, a pollster at Ipsos, said: Independent He said next week’s election “will be really difficult” for Labor, explaining that the party was facing a “perfect storm”.

“It looks set to be a disastrous night. The Ipsos poll shows economic optimism has reached its worst point in history, dating back 48 years.”

“There’s also the Mandelson scandal on top of that and it promises to be a really tough night as Labor basically defends too many seats,” he explained.

The pollster added: “One of the biggest challenges they will face will be in London, Labour’s new heartland, where they will face challenges from Reform and the Greens.”

But he argued there was no guarantee the Prime Minister would be forced to resign, saying: “Keir Starmer has been sacked several times in the last six months and it’s quite common to look at comments in the media and think he’s definitely done.”

“It is not impossible for him to survive because the fundamental question of who will replace him remains.

“And if you look at the polls – although they are very unpopular – if you give voters a binary choice between a Labor government led by Keir Starmer and Reform led by Farage, the Ipsos poll shows people prefer Labor 40 to 31.”

More than 5,000 council seats will be up for grabs when voters in England go to the polls on Thursday, May 7, and it could be a decisive battle for Sir Keir’s leadership.

The reform hopes for a repeat of last year’s local elections, which saw the party take its total council seats to 677, while the Green Party is also expected to make significant gains nationally thanks to increased popularity after Hannah Spencer was elected to parliament in Gorton and Denton in February.

A Labor MP said: Independent They are unsure whether Sir Keir “has the capacity to lead our party out of this situation”.

“I can’t call him the leader of the Labor Party at the moment because I don’t see leadership… We are predicted to lose great councils and councilors who are doing great work because of this leadership vacuum.”

They said the Prime Minister “must personally take responsibility for the consequences” if he is to survive.

The latest warnings come just days after Labor MP Jonathan Brash said no one “reasonably expects” Sir Keir to lead Labor at the next election.

The Hartlepool MP said: “I’m completely fed up with the back teeth of this psychodrama in Westminster, the heart of this government with their own goals… They just need to get to grips with it.

“I’m completely fed up with it and I think it’s gotten to the point where it’s not a matter of ‘if’ or ‘when’ as far as the Prime Minister is concerned, I just think we need to address it.”

Speaking to GB News, he added: “Ultimately, I don’t think anyone reasonable expects the Prime Minister to lead the party at the next election, and I think we need to refocus this Government on the priorities of the British people.”