Nvidia faces Wall Street’s high expectations two years into AI boom

Two years have passed since the explosion of productive artificial intelligence. Nvidia’s business. Since then, the income of the chip manufacturer has reached three times, and the snow has reached four times.

NvidiaThe second financial second -quarter earning report, which is planned to be held on Wednesday, will celebrate the second anniversary of growth as it is known as a company’s game chip manufacturer to its current position in the heart of the technology industry.

Last month, Nvidia became the first company to reach a market value of $ 4 trillion and continued to give value. Since the end of 2022, when Openai launched Chatgpt and fired the productive AI explosion, Nvidia’s stock price increased twelve. This year increased by 33% and closed on Friday at $ 177.99.

A company is still important for the size of Nvidia, but it has slowed down significantly. After the three -quarter triple expansion in 2023 and 2024, the income increase in the first quarter of the first quarter of this year fell to 69%. According to LSEG’s analyst forecasts, an increase of 53% in NVIDIA’s second quarter report is expected to be notified to 45.9 billion dollars with an increase of 53%.

In the first quarter, the data center income made up 88% of NVIDIA’s total sales, which is the most obvious sign of how important AI has become. The Company has 34% of the total sales last year It came from three anonymous customers. Analysts say that NVIDIA’s best users have big internet companies and cloud providers. Microsoft– Google– Amazon And Meta.

“NVIDIA’s assumptions and performance really determine what the market will start at AI trade and all AI trade is directing the market this year,” Melissa Otto, the President of the Alpha Survey at S&P Global, which collects Wall Street research. He said.

Nvidia accounts for about 7.5% of the S&P 500.

Megacap companies of Tech, Megacap companies outside NVIDIA reported three -month results in late July and updated Wall Street on investment plans. In total, they want to roughly spend 320 billion dollars on AI technology and data center structures this year.

Openai, who is still special but has a value of hundreds of billions of dollars, says that he will work with Softbank. Prophecy To spend $ 500 billion in the Stargate project announced by President Donald Trump in January for the next four years.

Analysts say that about half of the AI ​​capital expenditures result in Nvidia. The company’s reliance with the so -called hypenersais leaves him vulnerable to changes in the macroeconomic environment and artificial intelligence industry.

Openai CEO, Sam Altman, said last week that he believed that “investors were extremely excited about AI” and even this could be a “bubble”.

But don’t expect a withdrawal yet. Openai Cfo Sarah Frriar told CNBC that the company “Continuous” does not have enough information processing power on Wednesday.

As always, Wall Street will pay attention to the guidance of Nvidia and CEO Jensen Huang’s further looking comments. According to LSEG, analysts for the third quarter of the financial are waiting for an increase of income between 50 to 52.7 billion dollars. If Nvidia is a higher guidance and its predictions for the second quarter, analysts say that some kind of “tattoo and upgrade” can make AI optimism even higher.

As more Blackwell chips are installed, experts predict that superior information processing forces will create even more capable AI models such as Openai and Anthropic. Openai’s GPT-5, announced in the early this month, Nvidia’s LAST GENERATION HUGERNot the new Blackwell processors.

Nvidia said last year that Blackwell would be limited to the supply – not with the demand that its partners can build and send how many chips.

Blackwell Ultra is expected to start transport in the second half of 2025. Nvidia recently returned to an analyst report from Asia and said that chip technology, which is expected to create a large part of GPU sales in 2027, has seen early production problems.

A visible sign of Nvidia’s rise is Huang’s worldwide fame. He was regularly checked by Trump and traveled to meet with business leaders and authorities in Taiwan, China, Germany, England and Saudi Arabia in a quarter.

Huang recently made an agreement with Trump to regain access to the Chinese market. Trump said Nvidia’s Chinese chip revenue will pay 15% of Chinese chip revenue to the US government. The president added that he wanted 20%, but Huang marketed him.

H20 is very worthy of Nvidia. He said that the US government would require a license for sending China and should close sales effectively.

NVIDIA did not include H20 sales for the second quarter, and analysts doubted that it would include any of the Chinese government cloud providers, because they pressed host chips from companies such as Huawei, such as host chips.

If the H20 is included in the guidance, according to Keybanc analysts who recommend receiving the stock, it may increase income expectations to approximately $ 2 billion to $ 3 billion. But they said they expected Nvidia to exclude her completely. Advanced Micro Devices’ From the beginning of August.

“We also expect the administration to guide the administration in a conservative way, considering a 15% tax and pressure for the pressure of the Chinese government for the pressure of the Chinese government for the pressure of the Chinese government for the use of domestic AI chips,” Keybanc analysts said.

Nvidia is working on a new Chinese AI chip based on Blackwell, which will need the president’s approval.

Trade Secretary Howard Lutnick said about Huang about Huang last week, “I’m sure he’s always throwing the president,” he said.

WRISTWATCH: Interview with CNBC’s Trade Secretary Howard Lutnick