Sussan Ley’s leadership all but over after Coalition split, senior Liberals say | Coalition

Senior colleagues believe Sussan Ley’s leadership of the Liberal party is all but over after an extraordinary divide over hate speech laws blew up the Coalition for the second time in eight months.

Angus Taylor and Andrew Hastie are the leading candidates to replace him, with multiple sources predicting a challenge could launch as early as Friday, following the day of mourning for the Bondi massacre.

Tim Wilson and Ted O’Brien are mentioned internally but are thought to be outsiders.

If two MPs petition for the party to be whipped, a special meeting could be held to consider the leadership leak.

Two sources predict that the petition regarding the leak could be signed within the next 48 hours.

Senior Coalition sources also believe David Littleproud’s leadership of the National Party could come to an end, leading to an extraordinary split in the Albanian government over hate speech laws.

On Thursday morning, Littleproud said the Coalition was “untenable” after Ley sacked three National senators for overstepping the law, prompting the entire front line of the country party – including the leader – to quit the shadow ministry in solidarity.

He had previously warned Ley of the possibility of a mass sacking of the shadow cabinet if he accepted the resignations of senators Bridget McKenzie, Ross Cadell and Susan McDonald, on the grounds that shadow cabinet solidarity was non-negotiable.

‘You can’t come back from this’

Senior Liberals across groups believed that the poor polling and the recent disintegration following the previous Coalition split meant Ley’s position was fatal.

“You can’t come back from this; it’s done and dusted,” said one Liberal.

Another Liberal MP described Ley’s position as “untenable” following the second Coalition split under his administration. “He cannot be saved in any way, shape or form,” they said.

One Liberal MP said Ley’s position was “extremely difficult going forward”.

“He will have to fight now,” they said.

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One MP said the timing of the challenge had not yet been determined but Ley’s leadership had become “toxic and lethal” to the party.

“It needs to be acknowledged that this was not just Sussan Ley’s fault. This was a series of failures by the architects of her leadership, including Alex Hawke and Anne Ruston, and there must be consequences for that.”

They called for the party to be united under a new leader, applying a “merit-only approach” to front-line positions.

Guardian Australia spoke to more than a dozen MPs about Ley’s future and almost all believed his time as leader was over; but the timing and likely succession of any challenge was unclear.

Hastie and Taylor are from the same right-wing group, meaning only one of them could realistically object to the ballot measure.

Sources said the two should resolve the issue between themselves by allowing MPs to rally around a candidate who could then reunite the Coalition.

Taylor reportedly plans to return from abroad on Thursday after missing this week’s special session of parliament to pass hate speech and gun laws.

If Ley stepped aside, Wilson hoped to gain support from moderate MPs.

Factionally neutral, O’Brien’s path to the top job is less clear. A Liberal has suggested he could be a “consensus” candidate similar to Scott Morrison after the ouster of Malcolm Turnbull in 2018.

But frontrunner Melissa McIntosh called on the Coalition to remain united, saying the country needed strong leadership from the opposition “more than ever”.

“Our country needs hope that we will bring cities, suburbs and regions,” he said on social media.

The party chamber was scheduled to meet when parliament returns on February 3.

Some Liberals have warned of the risk of allowing Nationals to dictate the Liberal party leadership.

“If we decide to change our leader now, we will again bow to the demands of the National Party, I’m not ready for that,” said one Liberal MP.

Another said Ley could remain leader if “cooler heads prevail” in the coming weeks, but warned that “once the fuse is lit, it is difficult to extinguish”.

A moderate Liberal MP said an immediate challenge would be reckless.

But others said the leadership change needed to happen quickly to avoid further damage.

“The problem for any Conservative candidate is that they cannot say convincingly that they can bring the Coalition back together and will struggle for credibility if they oust Sussan.”

One of the frontrunners said MPs were talking about the state of the party but were trying to temper expectations about an imminent challenge.

Speaking on Thursday, Littleproud said he had tried to act in “good faith” but blamed Ley for accepting the resignations.

Ley issued a statement shortly after Littleproud’s press conference calling for the focus to be focused on the day of mourning for the victims of the Bondi terror attack.

“As we mourn the victims of the Bondi terrorist attack today, our focus should be on Jewish Australians, indeed all Australians,” he said.

“This is a national day of mourning and as leader of the opposition and leader of the Liberal party, my responsibility is to grieving Australians.”

Guardian Australia understands Ley asked Littleproud to postpone his media appearances until after the day of mourning.