Synopsis-La Presse survey | A wake-up call for Charles Milliard
On the liberal dashboard, a yellow light comes on. Our Synopsis survey is a wake-up call for Charles Milliard. The climb back up is steep and time flies.
Voting intentions can fluctuate from one poll to another. In this sense, the drop of five percentage points for the PLQ can be put into perspective. This is obviously bad news. But before panicking, the liberal camp will wait to see the next investigation.
The concern for Mr. Milliard lies elsewhere. It concerns him, not his party. The problem is simple: it does not inspire confidence.
When asked who would make the best prime minister, he received 15% support, far behind Christine Fréchette (21%) and Paul St-Pierre Plamondon (24%).
When you look at his image, it’s worse. He struggles to inspire confidence, to appear competent, honest and transparent or to embody leadership. For each of these themes, he is about 10 points behind the PQ and CAQ leaders. And that’s for the general population.
Among the French-speaking electorate, decisive for the outcome of the election, its delay is even greater. A starving 8% of respondents judge that he is the most competent or trustworthy, almost equal to the representatives of the conservatives and the solidarity groups. He embodies change even less than Mme Fréchette, whose party has been in power for eight years.
There is one consolation for Mr. Milliard: he also remains the most unknown of chefs.
No less than 37% of respondents do not know him well enough to form an opinion of him. The next few weeks will be decisive. Of all the leaders, he will need to surprise the most during the next electoral campaign.
In his defense, he finds himself in a thankless position. His Liberal predecessors (Jean Charest, Philippe Couillard and Dominique Anglade) had extensive experience as minister before becoming leader. And once elected at the head of the party, they sat in the National Assembly as leader of the official opposition. Their beginnings had also been rather laborious.
This should encourage leniency towards Mr. Milliard. Its learning curve is steep, almost dizzying. But unfortunately for him, he leads a ruling party that is sick of losing. His troops are impatient.
At the next leaders’ debate, he will have before him Mme Fréchette, who is improving as a rhetorician, as well as Paul St-Pierre Plamondon, who has been cutting his teeth in parliament for years and who has become accustomed to commenting on all subjects because of his small team. Both are in control of their cases.
Congestion in the debates will not benefit Mr. Milliard either. He will have to compete at the same time with Ruba Ghazal, who has gained experience, and with Éric Duhaime, who has devoted a large part of his career to oratorical jousts.
Mr. Milliard has spent part of the last few weeks talking about French, a subject on which the Liberals never really score points.
We have heard him less stand out on what should be his comfort zone: the economy and health.
Its message is not focused on a limited number of strong priorities on these themes. The ex-pharmacist and CEO of the Federation of Chambers of Commerce of Quebec speaks with ease, but he remains smooth. He has yet to make an emotional connection with voters.
Even if liberals are worried, it is not time for panic, far from it. The next election promises to be unpredictable. Five parties represented in the National Assembly face each other, and almost half of the voters admit they can change their minds. Be careful before betting…
A good example: the rise of the CAQ since the coming to power of Mr.me Frechette. She pulls her party upwards. She is on a statistical tie with Mr. St-Pierre Plamondon in almost all questions on individual qualities, with the exception of the change that she represents less than him.
The PQ is the party whose voters are least likely to change their minds. Mr. St-Pierre Plamondon is even better known than the Prime Minister, and whether people like him or not, they know what he stands for. But all it would take is a slight shift in voting intentions for this picture to unravel.
Everyone would like to be in the position of the PQ leader. Mr. Milliard, however, has a little hope: at this level, he can only surprise.
