The betting markets suggest Farage could quit. Without him, Reform are nothing

TThe old adage “follow the money” may apply in many ways to the embattled – and lately increasingly invisible – Nigel Farage.

Journalists are already asking a lot of questions about Thailand-based crypto billionaire Chris Harborne’s £5 million donation, or “personal gift” as Mr Farage prefers to call it.

And Mr Farage, a one-time metals trader, has £270,000, earning £22,000 an hour over three months promoting gold bullion.

There are also questions about gifts from his friend George Cottrell, or “Posh George” as he was known in Reform circles. He is a convicted criminal who is also understood to have handled Mr Farage’s money and investments.

But perhaps the real money to follow is betting on Polymarket, the world’s largest prediction market platform where people trade real money on the outcomes of future events.

Polymarkets is starting to tell a story that Mr Farage may be about to leave the leadership of Reform UK. The percentages go up and down, but after reaching 22 percent just before the weekend, they fell back to 16 percent.

While the odds are still for him to stay, the growing belief that he could resign is directly linked to questions about his personal finances, Reform’s ongoing decline from a high of 35 per cent in the polls to now average 25 per cent, as well as questions about whether Mr Farage is close to burnout.

Former Reform chairman David Bull signaled problems recently when he suggested Mr Farage go on holiday.

Interviewed on Sky News and the BBC’s Sunday morning political programmes, Robert Jenrick insisted questions about Mr Farage being a “liability” or resigning were just “silly” and maintained that he would “be the next prime minister”, possibly after Andy Burnham takes over from Keir Starmer.

But it is to some extent this kind of arrogance that has left the Reformation in its current position.

The team, which has been ahead in the polls for almost two years, including 350 polls in a row, as Mr Jenrick has highlighted in interviews, has sought to send the message that a Reform government in the UK is inevitable and that Mr Farage will undoubtedly be in Downing Street.

They seemed to believe their own propaganda. Because in this process, the party failed to solve candidate selection problems and develop real policies.

One of the issues that underpins concerns about the Harborne donation is that liberalizing cryptocurrency is Reformation’s only long-term economic policy. The funny thing is that not only Harborne but also crypto billionaires were keen to invest in Reform and Mr Farage.

The husband of the party’s London mayoral candidate, Laila Cunningham, is crypto investor Michael Cunningham.

Hong Kong-based businessman and crypto investor Ben Delo also donated £4 million to Mr Farage’s party.

There is no longer any doubt that the scandals have driven Mr Farage underground, although he still performs at rallies. Its weekly press conferences are over, it eschewed a recent interview with Laura Kuenssberg, and it hired journalist Miles Goslett as its new communications chief to find ways to promote its message on its platforms without having to deal with pesky journalists.

All this points to the fact that a man has become a liability, not an asset, to his party. But this raises the question of what Reformation is if Mr Farage is no longer leading it.

There is certainly no shortage of aspirants to his crown. Mr Jenrick is one of them, and another former Tory MP, Danny Kruger, may also be one. Zia Yusuf, the party’s home affairs spokesman and former bank executive, clearly wants to lead. And there’s deputy leader Richard Tice, who has been in leadership before.

In fact, the squabbles between the contenders for the leadership – particularly between Mr Jenrick and Mr Youssef – are becoming embarrassing.

But the real question is whether Reform would be the same political force without Mr Farage’s talents. Recent history tells us that this will not happen.

When Mr Farage first stepped down as leader of Reform UK to focus on his GB News career, Mr Tice as leader received the unfortunate nickname of “Mr 7 Percent”, the highest he could get in the polls. It has only exploded in popularity under Mr Farage’s rule.

Before this, when he stood down as leader of UKIP after the 2016 referendum, the party suffered a precipitous decline as it passed through a series of alternatives.

UKIP was so badly damaged that Mr Farage had to invent an entirely new party as a platform when he returned.

So it’s no wonder there is panic in some Reform circles about Mr Farage taking a break or stepping aside. Without Him they are nothing.

But the truth is that they, too, have diminishing power alongside him. A poll last week suggested Labor could overtake Reform for the first time in almost two years with Andy Burnham as leader and prime minister.

Although the Tory brand is still damaged, their leader Kemi Badenoch is the most or least popular political leader in the UK.

If Reform is no longer the party of the right that can beat Labor, then it’s fair to assume that people will start looking at the Conservative Party again.

All of this is potentially humiliating and disastrous for former Tory defectors like Mr Farage and Mr Jenrick, who are betting on his party’s future.

As David Cameron said when he left: “Once upon a time, I was the future.”

This could be the epitaph for Mr Farage and Reform’s unresolved attempts to seize power at the next election.