RBA offers more rates call insight before jobs data
The central bank will shed new light on why it decided to raise interest rates, and new data will offer insight into whether further increases are possible.
Minutes of the central bank’s last meeting in early February, when it unanimously decided to raise interest rates by 25 basis points to 3.85 percent, will be made public on Tuesday.
While Governor Michelle Bullock attended press conferences and two federal parliamentary hearings on the interest rate decision, the minutes are expected to reveal the factors that led to the decision.
Ms Bullock has previously said the resurgence in inflation had forced the bank’s hand, while the pace of consumer spending and business investment had caught the RBA board off guard.
Looking ahead, figures from the Australian Bureau of Statistics will help fill in more of the central bank’s picture for future interest rate calls.
Wednesday will release wage data for the last quarter of 2025.
NAB senior economist Taylor Nugent said wage growth was largely expected to be 3.4 per cent on an annual basis, which would be in line with the Reserve Bank’s forecasts.
He said growth in wages in service occupations would likely lead to a 0.8 percent increase this quarter.
“There will be an increase of approximately five basis points from the October wage increase bracket on the job value situation for aged care workers,” Mr Nugent said.
“Wage price index growth has been supported by public sector pay agreements, which include some catch-up growth last year.”
All key workforce figures for January will be released on Thursday.
The unemployment rate is likely to rise at the beginning of 2026, after December figures showed the unemployment rate fell to 4.1 per cent as more people aged 15 to 24 entered work.
Mr Nugent said there would likely be a 20,000-person increase in unemployment, taking the rate to 4.2 per cent.
“The past three Januarys have seen a 10-15 basis point increase in the unemployment rate, which was partially reversed in February because the number of people who were unemployed but attached to a job they were waiting to start was higher than normal before the pandemic,” he said.
“Following the surprise two-tenths drop in December, it supports expectations for some bounce back in January.”
Meanwhile, an encouraging update on inflation helped calm Wall Street investors worried about how AI technology could disrupt the business world.
The S&P 500 barely moved on Friday, a day after suffering one of its worst losses since Thanksgiving.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 48 points, or 0.1 percent, while the Nasdaq composite fell 0.2 percent.
Australian stock futures rose 26 points, or 0.29 percent, to 11,215.
The S&P/ASX200 fell 125.9 points on Friday, falling 1.39 percent to 8,917.6 points, while the All Ordinaries index lost 143 points, or 1.54 percent, to 9,138.8 points.
Australia’s Associated Press is the beating heart of Australian news. AAP is Australia’s only independent national news channel and has been providing accurate, reliable and fast-paced news content to the media industry, government and corporate sector for 85 years. We inform Australia.
