Who can claim victory if Iran ceasefire holds? An early winner is China | China

As the world tries to understand what, if anything, the ceasefire agreement announced by the United States and Iran on Tuesday has accomplished, one of the major powers gaining ground is China.

Beijing’s power brokers are known to have pushed Iran to accept a ceasefire and strengthen its status as a regional mediator. China’s heavily censored domestic media has allowed articles to circulate that tout the glory of China being the adult in the room during a time of international crisis.

Guancha, a nationalist online publication, published a report on Wednesday discussing articles in the New York Times and Associated Press in which China is believed to have played a key role in the ceasefire agreement between Iran and the United States. The Guancha article said: “The outcome of this ceasefire cannot be achieved without the active mediation of China, Pakistan and other countries.”

US President Donald Trump told the AFP news agency that he believes China has reached an agreement with Iran on a ceasefire. These verified reports Iranian and Pakistani officials said Beijing played a crucial role in the 11th-hour talks in Islamabad.

But some analysts are skeptical about how influential China can actually be in late-night debates.

The deal, initially announced by Tehran, is so advantageous for Iran that encouraging the regime to accept it was like “pushing open the door,” according to one analyst.

Nicholas Lyall, a senior researcher at Trends, a research and consultancy firm in Abu Dhabi, said: “It is important to clarify what Iran actually agreed to, in terms of whether China needed to push Iran too hard to agree to the temporary ceasefire and whether Iran was influenced by China’s reported effort.”

Lyall said the 10 points in the Iran ceasefire plan, initially put forward by Trump as a “workable” basis for negotiation, were “maximalist and represent all of Iran’s demands stated in previous weeks.” “All this means that Iran has made no concessions in starting negotiations and can legitimately present this to any audience as a real political gain.

“Therefore, any Chinese intervention in Iran’s process of agreeing to negotiations will likely not be as effective as some think, given that the United States has clearly acquiesced to Iran’s demands, largely because it has forced an open door.”

China has not officially confirmed or denied reports that it is playing an active role in the Islamabad talks. At a press conference on Wednesday, foreign ministry spokesman Mao Ning said only that China was “actively working to reduce tensions and end all hostilities.”

Still, Beijing would love to be credited with brokering a fragile peace deal that looks set to save the conflict in Iran from the brink of a major escalation.

Before Trump’s second term in the White House upended global stability and shattered regional alliances, China was gaining a reputation as a mediator in the Middle East, particularly by brokering the surprise rapprochement between Saudi Arabia and Iran in 2023.

In 2024, leaders of rival Palestinian factions, following talks in China, signed a “Beijing declaration” in which they agreed to form a national unity government for Palestine at some unspecified point in the future.

Recently, officials from China and Pakistan, which have emerged as the most important mediators in this conflict, released a five-point plan aimed at achieving a ceasefire and reopening the Strait of Hormuz.

Lyall said all these plans were “more about building a global image of China’s responsibility and moderation than about actually resolving the relevant conflicts.”

William Yang, senior analyst at the International Crisis Group, said: “There have been previous attempts where China has claimed victory in some very easy situations. This time it’s quite different because I think China feels that sustained disruption will have a more direct impact on its core interests.”

He added: “Ultimately, if China can ensure that it uses its leverage and influence with Iran to actually help facilitate any ceasefire, it will see that it is in its interest to do so.” But he said Beijing would be “cautious” about publicly disclosing what kind of pressure was and was not being used.

China’s actual diplomatic influence in the region, although increasing, is limited. China, the largest buyer of Iranian oil, is economically important for Tehran. But the two countries do not have a particularly deep relationship. diplomatic relationship.

Song Bo of Tsinghua University’s Center for International Security and Strategy said Iran was “outside the top 10” among countries important to Beijing.

Analysts are even more skeptical of the idea that China could be the guarantor of any ceasefire agreement in the Middle East.

Iranian envoy Abdolreza Rahmani Fazli said in Beijing on Wednesday that he hoped “major countries like China and Russia” would work together to help guarantee peace in the region. China and Russia backed Tehran by vetoing a UN Security Council resolution proposed before the ceasefire that aimed to force the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. However, actually allocating resources to the conflict is a much greater desire.

Song said: “China has no direct interest in any party in the Middle East. Becoming a guarantor of a ceasefire would be an extremely costly diplomatic initiative, and I do not think China would commit to it easily.”

“This is unrealistic. Even if China acts as a guarantor, it does not have the necessary diplomatic or military power to actually influence or control the parties involved in the conflict.”

Lyall said China had no capacity to verify whether ceasefire terms were being respected and was unlikely to impose meaningful punishment on a party that violated those terms.

The ceasefire agreement is not just a public relations victory for China. Although the country has large oil stocks, the risk of global recession and rising fossil fuel prices pose a threat to China’s economy, which is heavily dependent on exports.

“If it is possible to manage this conflict and bring oil prices down a little bit by managing the conflict, then this is absolutely very important for China,” Song said.

Additional research by Lillian Yang and Yu-chen Li