‘The trajectory of progress hinges’ on these 3 questions

Bill Gates is as optimistic as ever about the world’s future, even though we live in “an age of many challenges and polarization,” the billionaire philanthropist and Microsoft co-founder wrote. blog post on Friday.

Gates wrote that the world faces many reasons for concern, such as climate change, global health and poverty, and disruptions caused by artificial intelligence. But Gates wrote that “we are in much better shape than when I was born 70 years ago,” especially because of innovations in technology and global health.

Gates also believes that conditions will continue to improve over the next two decades, especially as AI spurs new advances. “I remain optimistic because I see what AI-accelerated innovation will bring,” he wrote.

But there are a few caveats. “These days my optimism comes with footnotes,” Gates wrote.

Gates is particularly interested in three questions that could determine “the course of the world.” [the world’s] progress,” he wrote:

1. Will a richer world increase its generosity towards those in need?

The number of deaths of children under 5 years of age worldwide is projected to increase by approximately 200,000 in 2025, the first increase in 25 years. According to a report It was published by the Gates Foundation in December.

Gates wrote on Friday that the projected statistic was “the thing I regret most” about the world’s progress. He attributed it to her Significant cuts to global aid spending by major world governments, including the United States

“Over the last 25 years, these deaths have decreased faster than at any point in history. But in 2025, there has been an increase for the first time this century…” Gates wrote. “This trend will continue unless we make progress in restoring aid budgets.”

Gates wrote that the continued improvement in the global standard of living depends in part on wealthy countries and individuals like his recommitting to contribute some of their abundant resources to help those in need and reduce inequality around the world. In May 2025, the billionaire announced plans to increase his own philanthropic giving as part of a pledge to donate “nearly all” of his fortune, currently estimated at $118 billion. Bloomberg – Until 2045.

“The idea of ​​treating others as you want to be treated doesn’t just apply to rich countries giving aid. It should also include the philanthropy of the rich to help those in need both domestically and globally, which must grow rapidly in a world with record numbers of billionaires and even centibillionaires,” he wrote on Friday.

2. Will the world prioritize scaling innovations that advance equality?

He wrote that Gates’ optimism is supported by his belief in the power of technology, especially artificial intelligence, to create new breakthroughs in medical treatments. Gates points out Artificial intelligence-supported advances in Alzheimer’s researchtogether cancer and the health crises that developing countries still face malaria with malnutrition.

The Microsoft co-founder is also a long-time advocate for using artificial intelligence to improve education in the U.S. and abroad. Gates said AI teachers could eventually be “like a great high school teacher” and offer personalized education to students at all income levels and geographies.Untie My Mind” Podcast in August 2023.

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In his blog post, Gates also linked environmental issues to global equality, writing that climate change “can join poverty and infectious diseases, causing tremendous suffering, especially for the world’s poorest people.”

Gates, who has previously advocated directing some climate research funds to issues such as poverty and health care, wrote in a statement on Friday that he plans to “invest and donate more to climate studies than ever before in the coming years.”

Agricultural applications of artificial intelligence could help farmers in developing countries cope with the challenges of growing food in warming environments by providing better advice and more adaptable crops, he wrote.

3. As artificial intelligence accelerates, will we be able to minimize the negative disruptions it causes?

Clearly, Gates is an AI optimist. He also wrote about the risks of technology and the need to work proactively to avoid worst-case scenarios, and touched on two specific challenges for the next two decades: the potential use of artificial intelligence by bad actors and job market disruptions.

“Both are real risks that need to be better managed,” Gates wrote. He added that world governments and the tech industry need to be “informed about how this technology is developed, managed and deployed.”

Gates didn’t make any specific recommendations, but he pushed back against the idea that AI could significantly harm the prospects of human workers, writing that “we need to be able to allocate these new capabilities to the benefit of everyone,” including the potential for shorter workweeks for some people. He stated that such optimism stemmed from his belief in “two fundamental human abilities.”

“The first is our ability to anticipate problems and prepare for them, and thus ensure that our new discoveries make us all better off. The second is our capacity to care for each other,” Gates wrote, adding that history is full of examples of people who put the “good of the many” ahead of their own personal interests.

“These two qualities (foresight and care) are what gave me hope at the beginning of this year,” Gates wrote. “As long as we continue to use these capabilities, I believe the coming years can be years of real progress.”

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