America will be the chief victim of Trump’s rampage

The average US tariff rate will approach 20 percent. This could be compared with the Nominal Terms with the 1930 Smoot-Hawley tariff law, but the tariffs were already high before that infamous bill, and the US was a closed economy at that time. Import was only 5 percent of GDP. Today it is 16.4 percent and includes critical components that maintain the productive machine.

“We are looking at the economy in a big shock of seven or eight times Smoot-Hawley,” Nobel Prize-winning Paul Krugman said for the trade theory.

Euphoric markets want a global trade system that has been built, ruled and carefully fed by the US for 80 years. “People continue to believe that Trump is logical and that it is not as ignorant and irresponsible as it seems.

US economic growth fell to 1.1 percent in the first half of the year. You must combine two quarters, because the tariff broke the GDC data that escaped from the front ”. The relevant metric, real final sales is the weakest since 2022.

“We estimate that real personal consumption is now clear for six months, which is rarely realized outside the stagnation, Gold said Goldman Sachs Chief Economist Jan Hatzius.

If you think America is now exploding, A) You look at a) in the rearview mirror and b) wrong data. The following year, the textbook will see a drop of damage accumulated when stagflation is hit.

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Trump’s tariffs are a tax for the US consumers. Maury Obstved, the former economist of the International Monetary Fund, said the total passage of Trump 1.0.

“The prices of scheduled goods not only rise, they increased all of the tariffs. American households and businesses were carrying all the burden, none of them were shifted to foreign exporters,” he said.

Well informed, the US Labor Party Bureau’s pre -import price prices are monitoring the monthly index. This rose in June. It is a cigarette pistol that tells us who really paid the tab. Yale Budget Laboratory says that consumers will face 40 percent for shoes and 38 percent for clothes.

But higher prices are not the worst. The greater threat to the US is that it cannot replace most of its imports. It takes ten years or more to rebuild the industrial capacity throughout the board.

For the Trumpian Americans, I can only say: Rejoice your victory, but don’t expect many friends in the world.

Lorenzo Codogno, a former economist in Bank of America and now in LC Macro, says that the US may cover only 10 percent of existing imports. “For the next six months, perhaps 5-10 percent can add, but it will take years. Trump’s economic recipe is a disaster,” he said.

Someone must have whispered in Trump’s ear, to bring a new copper mine to the flow of a new copper. This week, since 1968, Copper Cevere has exempted from 50 percent tariffs, and the Cotex has launched a steep -day accident in copper futures.

50 percent taxes remain in copper products as well as imported steel and aluminum, together with a bullet weight around the ankles of the US industry.

America imports one -fifth of steel. According to GMK, the US internal price is now traded to China with a 105 percent premium and 45 percent of Europe. It is the most expensive in the world. Steel Dynamics and Cleveland Cliffs increased steel prices last week to lock the bumper snow behind the tariff protection.

American cars will soon cost more expensive. Trump led European tariffs on US vehicles and industrial goods, but this was washed many times with what he did for input costs. US car sales to Europe will decrease. European automobile sales to the US will increase. Exactly for Japan.

The aluminum story is worse. Twenty US melting has been closed since 2000. Only four remained. It is mostly imported from Canada, half of the country’s needs and scrap.

The United States can revive some semi -obscolete islamics with sufficient subsidies, but it does not close this gap. It costs up to 6 billion dollars and takes six years to build a new one.

Rising steel, aluminum and copper costs are already fed to the US oil patch, and the OPEC plus cartel hits the global market with extra barrels. Petroleum Inside, Dallas Fed’s last secret survey was seen with Fury. “It’s hard to imagine how bad policies can be,” one manager said.

This cost shock comes at a time when America’s shale explosion is already long in the tooth. Fracking pioneer Scott Sheffield, this year’s Ceraweek Energy Forum will be consumed by 2028 the best layers in Permiyen, he said.

“Drill, Baby, Drill” is a good line at the Maga rallies, but Trump actually fires marginal oil and gas fields.

Trade agreements should be the purchase of $ 100 billion by South Korea and the purchase of $ 750 billion of US energy exports for three years. As it is widely mentioned, this is madness on stylts.

All of America’s oil and gas exports were only 166 billion dollars last year. Europe’s gas consumption is decreasing. Even if the EU was able to produce Trump, he could not suck America’s gas.

There is not enough ships to carry such liquefied natural gas (LNG) and there is not enough shipyard to build new ones. Europe’s LNG terminals are approaching full capacity.

European public services have long -term gas pipeline contracts with Norway, Algeria and Qatar. Brussels has no legal authority to force them to buy gas instead.

And if I’m coming angry, because I’m. Nobody will forget the embarrassing abuse of American power.

The Norwegian pipeline gas is the cleanest in the world with a greenhouse footprint than LNG than Texas. The EU would have to scrape the methane arrangement to meet Trump’s demands, which were part of its purpose. When it comes to buying more American oil, EU refineries cannot manage the US’s lower cluster any more. Wrong type.

You don’t need to be a free merchant at the Adam Smith School to see that America’s own commercial taxes and capricious market confusion will be the chief economic victim. However, greater damage is geopolitical. This hits all of us in the brotherhood of open democracies.

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The British can allow Trump to a sarcastic smile what he did to us in Brexit battles to Brussels. The EU used its political leverage at a vulnerable moment on England, armed the emotions on the border of Ireland and the fear of the fear of the abyss. At least we will not have to listen to more inadequate rows that the EU is a large, powerful block that calls all shots.

However, Brexiteers should restrict Schadenfreude, because Brexit’s economic basis was the fact that the world is a benign place and the existence of a global trade system based on rules outside the EU. None of this is right anymore.

For Trumpian Americans, I can only say: Love your victory, but don’t expect many friends in the world. We cannot see the terrible sprinkle without this six -month force shocking coercion yet, but it will work very deeply. Allies who are ill -treated become enemies.