UN warns extreme heat will become more frequent, intense and widespread

Unbalanced food systems, school closures, heatstroke, diseases; Millions of people in our region are feeling the effects of climate change. Doctor Armida Salsiah Alisjahbana reports.

THE WARMEST YEAR on record globally was 2024. The worst affected country in Asia and the Pacific was Bangladesh; There were approximately 33 million people affected by low crop yields that destabilized food systems, as well as extensive school closures and many cases of heatstroke and related illnesses.

Children, the elderly, and low-wage workers outdoors in poor and densely populated urban areas have suffered the most, as they often have less access to cooling systems, water supplies, and adequate healthcare. India was also badly hit, with nearly 700 deaths due to heat, mostly in informal settlements.

High-income areas are often located in cooler, greener neighborhoods, so the warmest areas are often the poorest, increasing social inequality. For example, a study conducted in Bandung, Indonesia, shows that there can be temperature differences of up to 7°C between the hottest and coldest parts of the city.

The region’s future prospects will depend heavily on the progress of climate change. Under the high emissions scenario, we predict that extreme heat will become more frequent, intense and widespread, with what was once an occasional event becoming a seasonal or even year-round occurrence. Increasing temperatures also affect other parts of the Earth’s ecosystem, especially glacial melting.

Warming in the Arctic could affect weather, precipitation and glacier behavior in Central and South Asia. Globally, glaciers have lost approximately five percent of their volume this century. Under the high emissions scenario, the Islamic Republic of Iran, Mongolia, Myanmar, Turkey and Uzbekistan could lose more than 70 percent of their glacier mass by 2060. These events also contribute to sea level rise, increasing existential risks for some countries in the Pacific.

To tackle these challenges, countries will meet this week at the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAPE) to evaluate opportunities to integrate heat risk into early warning systems and development planning. The key priority is to move from reactive heat risk management to long-term, science-based strategies. Policy actions are needed at local, national, regional and global levels. This is the International Year of Glacier Conservation, which presents a critical opportunity for collective action.

At the local level, nature-based solutions such as trees lining streets, urban parks, green roofs, and wetland protection are helping to reduce urban temperatures. These measures can increase shade, promote evaporation, and reduce heat island effects by acting as heat sinks.

Vegetation and tree cover can reduce summer high temperatures by up to 5°C. While effects vary depending on vegetation type and density, green roofs and walls in Singapore, for example, have been shown to reduce surface temperatures by up to 17°C and ambient air temperatures by up to 5°C.

Countries in Asia and the Pacific can significantly reduce heat-related illnesses, deaths and disruptions to livelihoods by installing heat-ready, multi-hazard early warning systems. Expanding heat-health alert systems in just 57 countries could save nearly 100,000 lives each year.

To support countries, ESCAP plans to scale up climate-sensitive and inclusive social protection programs, including income and non-income support for the poor, especially those living in densely populated urban areas, as well as technical support for heat-specific social protection provisions that ensure heat preparedness.

Additionally, recognizing the benefits of nature-based solutions, our efforts can strengthen cooperation between national governments, municipalities and local communities to create green, refreshing cross-border corridors.

These passages can cool the air, reduce surface temperatures, and buffer against desertification, land degradation, drought, and sand and dust storms.

Finally, we should encourage the use of innovative field solutions to strengthen heat preparedness in early warning systems. Despite the proven benefits of early warning systems, coverage remains inadequate.

Only 54 percent of global weather services provide warnings for extreme temperatures, and even fewer provide warnings for heat waves or thermal stress. For example, a community survey in Nepal found that nearly three-quarters of respondents from vulnerable groups had not received any heat warnings.

ESCAP can leverage existing collaboration to share Earth observation data and technical expertise to map and monitor heat exposure and the city’s vulnerability to urban heat island effects. This information provides greater precision in predicting and measuring heat risk, as well as issuing heat warnings in a timely manner.

The Asia-Pacific region has significant experience in managing cascading disasters. But the growing threat of extreme heat adds a new dimension of urgency. Every country needs to act now to meet the scale of the evolving disaster risk environment and strengthen regional cooperation. As we prepare for an increasingly warmer world, ESCAP stands ready to support countries in these efforts.

Dr Armida Salsiah Alisjahbana appointed Under-secretary-general of the United Nations and secretary-general of the Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAPE) You can follow Armida on Twitter in 2018. @UN_Armida.

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