Bitcoin price (BTC USD) prediction 2026: Bitcoin price could crash to $40K: Luke Gromen explains why gold may outperform BTC USD in 2026
Gold and Select Stocks May Outperform Bitcoin (BTC USD) in 2026
Gromen emphasized that his long-term view remains unchanged: He still believes currency depreciation will drive investors into scarce assets like gold and Bitcoin, according to The Street. But he now suggests that gold and select stocks may offer a safer or more predictable way to play this trade in the coming years.
“Basically everything except gold and the dollar is likely to be ambushed,” he said, as quoted by The Street.
An important caveat for Gromen is that Bitcoin is unable to make new highs compared to gold. This lack of breakout, combined with a recent technical glitch, has raised concerns about the cryptocurrency’s risk-reward profile.
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Historical Models Suggest Potential 65%-70% BTC USD Price Drop
According to the report, historical models show that similar technical failures are followed by sharp declines of 65% to 70% each time.
Quantum Computing Risks May Affect Long-Term Bitcoin Holders
Gromen said the size of Bitcoin in his portfolio caused him to reduce his positions, anticipating further downside. He also noted growing debate about the risks of quantum computing. While most traders view these threats as remote, they may force long-term holders to hedge or reduce Bitcoin risk. “If I thought quantum was a risk, I would want to at least hedge it in some way, I would start taking some of it off the table,” he said, noting the weak price action as well as what he perceived as a whale sell-off, The Street reported.
Macro Factors Affect Bitcoin’s Near-Term Outlook
The broader economic environment is increasing caution. Weak US economic data, volatility in stock markets and concerns about the artificial intelligence sector are putting pressure on risky assets, including Bitcoin. Analysts also question whether the gains made by US spot Bitcoin ETFs can be sustained under these conditions.
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“The first half of next year is going to be ugly,” Gromen warned, as quoted by The Street, adding that if the sell-off in Bitcoin is not driven solely by technology- or quantum-related fears, “basically everything other than gold and the dollar” could be challenged until broader macro conditions reset.
FAQ
Why is Luke Gromen cautious about Bitcoin now?
He sees technical and macro risks that could push BTC towards $40,000.
Is quantum computing really a threat to Bitcoin?
This is mostly a distant risk, but the increased controversy could sway long-term investors to hedge.
