Exclusive-US intelligence indicates limited new damage to Iran’s nuclear program, sources say
Written by Gram Slattery, Jonathan Landay and Erin Banco
WASHINGTON, May 4 (Reuters) – U.S. intelligence assessments show the time Iran would need to build a nuclear weapon has remained unchanged since last summer, when analysts estimated the timeline for a U.S.-Israeli attack had been pushed back by as much as a year, according to three sources familiar with the matter.
Assessments of Tehran’s nuclear program have remained broadly unchanged even after a two-month war that U.S. President Donald Trump launched in part to prevent the Islamic Republic from developing a nuclear bomb.
The latest US and Israeli strikes, which began on February 28, focused on conventional military targets, but Israel hit a number of key nuclear facilities.
The unchanged timeline suggests that significantly thwarting Tehran’s nuclear program may require the destruction or removal of Iran’s remaining stockpile of highly enriched uranium (HEU).
The fighting has stopped since the United States and Iran agreed to a ceasefire on April 7 to maintain peace. Tensions remain high as both sides appear deeply divided and Iran has blocked traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, blocking nearly 20% of the world’s oil supply and triggering a global energy crisis.
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has publicly stated that the United States aims to ensure that Iran does not obtain nuclear weapons through ongoing negotiations with Tehran.
Two of the sources said U.S. intelligence agencies concluded before the 12-day war in June that Iran could produce enough bomb-grade uranium for a weapon and build a bomb in about three to six months; All of these sources requested anonymity to discuss U.S. intelligence.
Following U.S. strikes in June that hit the Natanz, Fordow and Isfahan nuclear complexes, U.S. intelligence estimates had pushed that timeline back by about nine months to a year, two sources and a person familiar with the assessments said.
The attacks destroyed or severely damaged three enrichment facilities known to be in operation at the time. But the UN nuclear watchdog could not confirm the whereabouts of about 440 kilograms of uranium enriched to 60 percent. He believes about half of it is stored in the underground tunnel complex at the Isfahan Nuclear Research Center, but he could not confirm this because inspections were suspended.
The International Atomic Energy Agency estimates that the total stockpile of HEU would be sufficient for 10 bombs if further enriched.
“While Operation Midnight Hammer destroyed Iran’s nuclear facilities, Operation Epic Fury built on that success by destroying Iran’s defense industrial base, which they once used as a protective shield in their pursuit of nuclear weapons,” White House spokeswoman Olivia Wales said, referring to the June operation and the latest war that began in February.
“President Trump has long made clear that Iran will never have a nuclear weapon, and he is not bluffing.”
The Directorate of National Intelligence did not respond to a request for comment.
STOPPING TEHRAN’S NUCLEAR PROGRAM IS ONE OF THE IMPORTANT GOALS OF THE USA
US officials, including Trump, have repeatedly stated that the need to eliminate Iran’s nuclear program is a central goal of the war.
“Iran can never be allowed to obtain nuclear weapons. That is the purpose of this operation,” Vice President J.D. Vance wrote to X on March 2.
The unchanged estimate for how long it would take Iran to produce such a weapon partly reflects the focus of recent military action by the United States and Israel, the sources said.
While Israel struck nuclear-related targets, including a uranium processing facility, in late March, U.S. strikes focused on conventional military capabilities, Iran’s leadership, and its military-industrial base.
According to some analysts, the unchanged estimates may also be due to the lack of large nuclear targets that could be easily and safely destroyed following military action in June.
Eric Brewer, a former senior U.S. intelligence analyst who led assessments of Iran’s nuclear program, said it was not surprising that assessments did not change because nuclear-related targets were not prioritized in recent U.S. strikes.
“Iran still has all the nuclear material, as far as we know,” said Brewer, vice president of the nuclear materials study program at the Nuclear Threat Initiative arms control think tank. “This material is likely located in deeply buried underground areas where US munitions cannot penetrate.”
In recent weeks, U.S. officials have been considering dangerous operations that would significantly disrupt Iran’s nuclear efforts. These options include ground raids to retrieve HEU believed to be stored in the tunnel complex in the Isfahan region.
Iran has repeatedly denied seeking nuclear weapons. U.S. intelligence agencies and the IAEA say Tehran halted its warhead development efforts in 2003, but some experts and Israel claim it is secretly guarding key parts of the program.
POSSIBLE EFFECTS OF THE KILLING OF SCIENTISTS
Experts say it is difficult even for the world’s leading intelligence services to fully assess Iran’s nuclear capabilities.
Various US intelligence agencies have independently examined Iran’s nuclear program, and while sources indicate broad consensus on Iran’s ability to build nuclear weapons, contradictory assessments also emerge.
It is possible that Iran’s nuclear ambitions are even further behind than intelligence estimates suggest.
Some officials, including U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, have argued that U.S. strikes on Iranian air defenses reduce the nuclear threat by reducing Iran’s ability to defend its nuclear sites if it decides to arm itself in the future.
Israel’s assassinations of Iran’s leading nuclear scientists also have an impact.
David Albright, a former U.N. nuclear inspector who runs the Institute for Science and International Security, said the killings added serious uncertainty to Tehran’s ability to make a bomb that would function as intended.
“I think everyone agrees that information cannot be bombed, but technical information certainly can be destroyed,” he said.
(Reporting by Gram Slattery, Jonathan Landay and Erin Banco; Editing by Don Durfee and Daniel Wallis)
